Spain General Discussion

[swl]

Yes I meant PSOE-Podemos(-IU)

[Velasco]

Another shocking poll, courtesy of Sigma Dos/El Mundo.

This one is for Catalan elections. If the referendum on independence -foreseen on November 9- don't take place because the Spain's government prevents it, Artur Mas might call for early 'plebiscitary' elections.

Pro-independence ERC would win with 23.2% (13.7% in 2012), followed by the ruling CiU with 19.1% (down from 30.7% in 2012). Rest of parties: PSC 13.8% (14.4%), Podemos 12.4% (-), PP 9.5% (13%), Cs 7.5% (7.6%), ICV-EUiA 5.6% (9.9%) and CUP 3.6% (3.5%).

I think PSC is too high in this poll. However, it suggests that an emergence of Podemos in Catalonia might cause a collapse for ICV-EUiA (as it might happen with IU in Spain) and a halt in the progression of the anti-indepence Cs on the one hand, and the far-left pro-independence CUP on the other hand. 

[Velasco]

Emilio Botín, the most powerful banker in Spain and chairman of the largest banking group in the Eurozone (Santander), has died tonight of a heart attack. In 2012 his family was involved in a tax fraud scandal with regard to Swiss accounts; the investigation was dropped when the Botín clan paid back 200 million Euro to the Treasury. The likely heiress of the financial emporium will be Emilio Botín's eldest daughter, Ana Patricia Botín. Ms Botín is currently running the British branch of Banco de Santander and is regarded as one of the most powerful women in the world (the 3rd most powerful woman in Britain behind Elizabeth II and Theresa May, according to a BBC survey).

The mayoress of Madrid, Ana Botella, has announced that she's not going to run in the 2015 local elections. Botella is wife of José María Aznar, former Spain's PM (1996-2004). She inherited a huge debt from her predecessor Alberto Ruíz Gallardón, who is the incumbent minister of Justice. Her management has been marked by several disgraces and is regarded as horrible by many PP members in Madrid. One of the highlights of her tenure was the tragedy of the overcrowded Madrid Arena disco in Halloween 2012, which ended with five girls dead by avalanche. At the height of the crisis, Botella decided to go to a spa in Portugal in order to enjoy a relaxing weekend, because she had planned to do so since time ago. She led the failure of the Madrid Olympic candidacy -while her team took the success for granted- and was mocked in the Spanish media for her (in)famous speech in Buenos Aires ("relaxing cup of café con leche"). Also, she was criticised because of her management of a sweepers' strike in Madrid. Ultimately, Botella was widely unpopular and her staying in office became a huge headache for herself. Some PP members quoted by El Diario say that she didn't feel the need for staying in her post. Besides, she was suffering for being constantly in the public eye and mockery from her own political friends. Polls were devastating for PP with Botella running for reelection and the party needs to keep the Spain's capital, one of the key PP strongholds.

A controversial project on local electoral reform proposed by the Rajoy administration seems to be designed with the aim of retaining Madrid and other major cities across the country. PP is proposing a direct election system in which a candidate who gets 40% of the vote doesn't need a second round and is awarded with a majority in the Council. It's not clear if Rajoy will carry it out. All opposition parties are against and the 'reform' has been widely criticised, as an obvious electioneering device disguised as a measure of 'democratic regeneration' (I wonder why so many politicians in this country adore such meaningless expression).

The list of possible candidates includes former Madrid premier Esperanza Aguirre (she's the most popular candidate, but she's also the main rival of Rajoy in the party and he needs to be really desperate to place the woman), Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría (a Rajoy's protegé), the delegate of the government in Madrid Cristina Cifuentes (there have been rumours on her candidacy before) and Madrid's regional minister of Education Lucía Figar (she's in good terms with Aguirre and Rajoy).

I know that you adore pics, so here you have PP's senior staff in Madrid. From left to right: Esperanza Aguirre, PP's secretary general Dolores de Cospedal, mayoress Ana Botella, Madrid premier Ignacio González, Soraya Sáez de Santamaría and Cristina Cifuentes.
 

(...)

[Velasco]

Tomorrow is the National Day of Catalonia ( Diada Nacional de Catalunya). Catalan pro-indenpendence campaigners are preparing what they expect will be the definitive demonstration, in order to push ahead for the self-determination referendum on November 9. The National Assembly of Catalonia (ANC) plans to do a massive 11 Km length 'V' uniting the two main avenues of Barcelona, Diagonal and Meridiana. Such 'V' will be made of people wearing T-shirts with the colours of the national flag, which will create a huge senyera. There are more than 455,000 people inscribed, more than the past year's human chain which crossed Catalonia from N to S. The ANC and the independence movement have showed an impressive organisational ability in recent times, so the success of tomorrow's demonstration is guaranteed.

The 'V':



However, some there are some clouds over the independence process. Recently, Spain's PM stated that "all the measures are ready" to prevent the referendum from taking place, although he didn't provide further details. More importantly, Catalonia has been shocked to the core by the confession of the former Catalan premier Jordi Pujol (1980-2003). Pujol revealed that his family conceived the existence of an inheritance received in September 1980, deposited in a bank in Andorra and for which there weren't paid taxes to the Spain's Treasury. Likely he was forced to confess due for pressures from the Spanish tax inspection, and because he's trying to prevent at all costs the involvement of his sons in the scandal (some of them, such as Oriol Pujol, are being investigated for illegal commission charges and other irregularities). Many people wonder if the money that the Pujols have in banking accounts abroad comes really from an inheritance, as the patriarch claims, or if the family's fortune is the product of bribery. Pujol has been something like the father of the Catalan nation since the early years of La Transición, even former Spain's PM Felipe González tries to defend him stating that he doesn't believe -against all evidence- that the senior Catalan politician is corrupt.

It's hard to measure the impact of the revelations in the independence process. A survey released by El Periódico de Catalunya says that 78.5% of the Catalans think that Pujol and his family are guilty of illegal commission charges; 78.3% and 55.3% think that the scandal will affect negatively the ruling CiU and the foreseen referendum on November 9, respectively.

As for electoral consequences, the survey provides the following figures of raw vote intention:

ERC 19% (-3.4%), CiU 8.4% (-3.2%), Podemos 8.1% (+0.6%), PSC 4.9% (+0.3%), ICV-EUiA 4.5% (-2.3%), Cs 4.4% (-2.7%), PP 3.4% (+0.8%), CUP 1.8% (-2%), undecided 30.4% (+12.9%).

http://estaticos.elperiodico.com/resources/png/3/9/1410122346293.png

Of course, this is not a vote estimation, which I think it will released tomorrow.

[RogueBeaver]

Will Rajoy actually suspend the Catalan regional government?

[Velasco]

Will Rajoy actually suspend the Catalan regional government?

It's hard to say, because Rajoy never gives clues on his decisions. Such a measure would like to his party hardliners, including those who joined the Vox splinter before the EP elections, but I think that our PM and his cabinet realise that it would be counterproductive. There is an historical precedent, when the Catalan Devolution Statute was suspended in 1934 by a republican right-wing government.

As far as the news tell, the Spanish government is planning to appeal to the Constitutional Court as soon as the Catalan Parliament passes a bill on referenda, which is intended to be a legal tool for the one scheduled in November. Constitutional laws have precedence over regional laws in Spain and the appeal would suspend the referendum until the Court rules. Also, the Spain's Attorney General (or the Public Prosecutor, I'm not sure which title fits better) has called his colleagues in Catalonia for a meeting next Thursday, in order to study legal measures against a hypothetical referendum. He lacks the power to act until the Catalan government commits an illegality. In the case that referendum takes place, the prosecutor's office can act against regional officials or, in extreme circumstances, members of the Catalan government.

Meanwhile, there was a parliamentary debate yesterday in Barcelona:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/16/inenglish/1410862288_303726.html

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By the way, Stéphane Dion was interviewed by some journalist from El País. He said that it's not very useful hiding behind a Constitution, referring to the attitude of the Spanish government towards the problem in Catalonia. In his opinion, it's necessary a legal framework for cases like this. The Clarity Act is cited from time to time by politicians and academicians in Spain. On the other hand, ERC calls for 'civil disobedience' are lacking of support from Scottish nationalism, apparently.

Link to Dion's interview in Spanish, sorry.

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/09/12/actualidad/1410538218_418493.html

[Velasco]

The Parliament of Catalonia is debating right now in order to pass a bill on "consultas no refrendarias"*. I'm unable to translate that into something comprehensible. Anyway, the bill is intended to regulate electoral consultations, in order to provide some legal coverage and allowing the President de la Generalitat (Catalan premier) Artur Mas to sign a decree calling for the referendum in November. Such legal coverage is debatable; the Catalan Socialists (PSC) are going to vote affirmatively together with the 'sovereignist bloc' (CiU, ERC, ICV-EUiA and the CUP) because they think that the bill doesn't provide it. PP and Cs are in radical opposition.

It is not a coincidence that the dabate is taking place the day after the Scottish referendum. "Is it Catalonia less than Scotland?", asked Artur Mas.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/19/inenglish/1411128938_425473.html

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*EDIT: Something like "non-referendum consultation"? Such a strange denomination seems to be a legal trickery intended to prevent the ban from the Constitutional Court, since regional governments lack the authority to call for referendum consultations. Nationalists claim that the bill passed yesterday is perfectly constitutional.

On the other hand, the Spain's government didn't pass the controversial bill on abortion in the cabinet meeting held this morning. I think the bill was commented in some thread on this board. This is a serious blow for the sponsor of the 'reform', minister of Justice Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, because the bill is likely to be kept in a drawer for the rest of the legislature. Rajoy decided to shelve the abortion bill for pragmatic reasons, given the great opposition raised against the proposal -even some PP high rank officials disliked it-. He has to face a complicated election year in 2015.

[Velasco]

Artur Mas seems to be delaying the signal of the decree calling for the Catalan referendum (the period to do so expires on October 4). Perhaps he's saving time to consider the entry of the ERC in the government or other options. Close secrecy. Rajoy lies in wait.

Anti-abortion activists denounce the Rajoy "treason" for having shelved the abortion bill, threatening to vote Vox instead PP. The party tries to keep up appearances, as if the bill would not be postponed indefinitely, in order to protect Ruiz-Gallardón (there were rumours on his resignation).

Celeste-Tel September survey:

PP 33.1%, PSOE 24.5%, Podemos 16.1%, IU 4.7%, UPyD 4%, Cs 3.7%. Surprisingly, CiU gets 2,5% and ERC only 2%. I wouldn't trust very much in those figures for the Catalan parties. Let's wait what the CIS has to tell.

http://www.celeste-tel.es/images/Barometroelectoralsocialvseptiembre2014.pdf

[Velasco]

Minister of JusticeAlberto Ruiz-Gallardón steps down and quit politics:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/23/inenglish/1411488300_775544.html

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Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón was born in 1958. At the early age of 23 he was prosecutor, on having passed the exams ranking in second place. Shortly after he left that position, in order to join Manuel Fraga's AP  following the steps of his father, a conservative monarchist lawyer and professor who joined the party in 1976. By that time (1983), Ruiz-Gallardón was something like a child prodigy of the Spanish right and the protegé of Fraga; he entered that year in the Madrid city council and three years later was the AP candidate in the Madrid regional elections. Both in the City Council and the Regional Assembly, Ruiz-Gallardón came to the fore as a good opposition speaker, the scourge of the socialists Tierno Galván and Leguina. In the following years the old People's Alliance (AP) became in the present day People's Party (PP). As regional premier (1995-2003) and mayor of Madrid (2003-2011) Ruiz-Gallardón had high approval rates and was even appreciated in the left. By then he was deemed as moderate man of dialogue despite his conservative background, in sharp contrast with the fierce Thatcherite Esperanza Aguirre, the woman who replaced him as regional premier in 2003. The term of Ruiz-Gallardón as mayor of Madrid was marked by the animosity between him and Aguirre and by his ambitious and monumental program of public works, executed in a period of economic boom and which finally ended in a huge municipal debt. Finally, he was appointed Minister of Justice after the 2011 General Elections, being replaced in the mayoralty by Ana Botella. 

[Velasco]

Podemos is starting to define the electoral strategy. Pablo Iglesias' team proposed to the party's Civic Assembly not risking the brand Podemos in the municipal elections, given that the movement's local structure is still nascent and they have difficulties to run reliable candidacies in hundreds of municipalities. Municipal elections come too soon for the movement, quoting the text of the proposal: "we must admit to the citizens that we prefer not running in the municipal elections, instead of doing so without offering them full guarantees to their confidence and vote. Our task is not to occupy public offices, but to take effective and irreversible steps for change". Instead, Podemos is going to endorse municipal initiatives like Guanyem in Barcelona or Ganemos in Madrid and other places. Those candidacies (Guanyem and Ganemos mean "Let's Win", while Podemos means "We Can") have in common being a confluence of social movements and activists with left-wing parties, with a clear intent of being citizen's lists instead of an electoral front made by the addition of several parties. Every Guanyem (in the Catalan speaking municipalities) or Ganemos has local particularities. In Barcelona the most outstanding figure of the nascent coalition is Ada Colau, a former spokeswoman of an anti-eviction platform. In Madrid IU and Equo constituted Ganemos weeks ago, stating that they were waiting for Podemos to join.

However, Podemos intends to run in the regional elections with its own brand, because they think said electoral contests are the ideal platform to build momentum for the General Elections, which will take place months later. Also, Podemos made public a draft of the future party's structure, in order to be debated alongside with the electoral proposal. The basic organisational unit and the spine of Podemos will be the local assemblies (Círculos), which will be integrated in a Civic Assembly. The Civic Council, integrated by 63 members elected by the Assembly and the 17 regional secretaries of the movement (this is a novelty), will be the Podemos' Political Directorate. The leader of the party will be called Secretary General (by the moment Podemos has a spokesman, Pablo Iglesias) and directly elected for a three-year period by the Civic Assembly, integrated by all the enrolled activists (120,000 at the moment).

[Velasco]

Artur Mas will sign the referendum decree tomorrow morning.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/25/inenglish/1411652894_778422.html

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It's a good tactical move. On the one hand, Artur Mas forces the Spain's government to meet on Sunday or not later than Monday for an immediate reaction, since Rajoy is currently in China trying to sell the wonders of the economic 'recovery'. On the other hand, the signal of the decree, conveniently staged as an act of unity of the "sovereignist bloc" parties, has been made to coincide with the hearing of Jordi Pujol before the Catalan Parliament, limiting possible adverse effects. The former regional premier and his family are involved in a tax fraud scandal, as it's told in a previous post. Mireia Pujol, one of his daughters, left CDC (Convergència, the Pujol and Mas party and the major CiU partner) in protest for the party's "unfair treatment"  to the patriarch of the Catalan nationalism, the formerly Honorable President.

[Velasco]

A couple of polls released this month.

Invymark / La Sexta (October 20):



Sigma Dos / El Mundo (October 25):



This one from El Mundo is the first poll showing Podemos ahead of PSOE. I'm not sure if the newspaper from Madrid wants to mobilise voters from the centre to the right resorting to the fear of the "populist far-left". In the first poll the addition PSOE+Podemos+IU is around 47%, whereas in the second is 53%. I think the first figure is more realistic than the second and parties like the ERC are underestimated in the Sigma Dos poll. In any case, a hypothetical left-wing majority doesn't mean necessarily a leftist coalition government. Actually, I think PP-PSOE Grand Coalition is the likeliest outcome after the next year's general elections.

[Velasco]

I forgot this scandal, which follows the "black card" scandal in the former Caja Madrid (Bankia). Just another milestone in the collapse of the "regime" and the "political caste", which rottenness becomes ever more evident:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/27/inenglish/1414402849_825562.html

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This is fuel for Podemos, obviously.

On the Caja Madrid scandal involving PP, PSOE and IU politicians, as well some union members:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/06/inenglish/1412589679_102975.html?rel=rosEP

On PP fears (and chronology of this week's events):

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/27/inenglish/1414418923_870308.html?rel=rosEP

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[Lief 🗽]

Holy crap!

[politicus]

Partido Popular should be renamed to Partido Inpopular.

[Velasco]

Everybody is expecting the CIS survey, which should be released this week. Apparently, Podemos takes the lead in raw vote intention, boosted by the corruption scandals. Establishment parties might be facing "shock therapy":

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/03/spanish-politics-shock-therapy-electorate

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Transparency International slumped Spain 10 places to rank 40th in the Corruption Perception Index for 2013, "after a spate of scandals hit its ruling centre-right party and the royal family". On the top of the ranking (177 countries) are New Zealand and Denmark, followed by Finland. Somalia, North Korea and Afghanistan are tied in the last place.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/03/spain-global-corruption-index-political-royal-scandal

[Velasco]

CIS, Ocotber 2014.



Sample: 2480. Margin of error: +/- 2%.

Interviews were done between October 1 and 13. Public opinion was under the impact of the "black card" scandal (Caja Madrid/Bankia) and the Ebola crisis. The Metroscopia poll (October 28 and 29) reflects as well the last scandal involving PP.

Estimation: PP 27.5%, PSOE 23.9%, Podemos 22.5%, IU-ICV 4.8%, UPyD 4.1%, CiU 3.8%, ERC 2.3%, Ciudadanos 2.1%, Compromís-Equo 1.1%, PNV 1%, Amaiur 0.9%

Direct vote intention:

Podemos 17.6%, PSOE 14.3%, PP 11.7%, IU-ICV 3.7%, UPyD 2.1%, CiU 2%, ERC 1.9%, Ciudadanos 1.5%

Vote intention + "Sympathy":

Podemos 19.3%, PSOE 18.1%, PP 14.6%, IU-ICV 4.2%, UPyD 2.5%, CiU 2.3%, ERC 2.2%, Ciudadanos 1.9%

Which party did you vote in 2011? (in brackets, vote percentage obtained by each party according to census)

PP 28.3% (30.4%), PSOE 28.3% (19.6%), IU 8.4% (4.7%), UPyD 3.8% (3.2%), CiU 3.2% (2.8%), ERC 2.8% (0.7%), Amaiur 1% (0.9%), PNV 0.9% (0.9%)

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2014/11/05/f65f19988a09564864ddb9414be2f785.pdf

[Velasco]

Some graphs from the politikon website explaining the last CIS survey and Podemos.

http://politikon.es/temas/politica/

1) CIS vote estimation (Jan 2012/Oct 2014):



The CIS still places PP first, although the estimation for the ruling party has fallen from >40% in the beginning of 2012 to a mere 27.5% in October 2014. PSOE remained stable until the EP elections with vote estimations slightly below its 2011 result, with a small 30.2% peak in Jan 2013. After the EP elections, PSOE fell sharply in July (21.2%) to recover in October (23.9%). The surprising performance of Podemos in the EP elections had a carryover effect; the Podemos estimation in July almost doubled its result in May. Far from being temporary, the spectacular rise is amplified in October. In the July survey PSOE is clearly damaged by Podemos, while IU and UPyD are affected to a lesser extent. The October survey shows the socialists gaining some ground, while IU plummets and UPyD continues its decline. The outcome of the EP elections was a serious erosion of the traditional two-party system and showed an increasing fragmentation of the vote, specially in the left. Last polls show an evolution from that trend. PP and PSOE remain weak, gathering a support around 50%. Both parties used to get >70% of the vote since 1982, reaching a 84% peak in the 2008 elections. Meanwhile, Podemos is getting a support comparable to the two main establishment parties. In other words, October polls point to a new three-party system: PP-PSOE-Podemos.

2) Vote intention (spontaneous replies):



The most spectacular data is the direct vote intention showed by recent polls. Podemos placed second over PSOE in May to take a clear lead in October, while PP falls from the first to the third place. This is clearly an effect of recent corruption scandals, which increased the indignation of a citizenry hardly beaten by the effects of the crisis and the austerity policies. Other data in the CIS survey shows that people has little confidence in the governmental narrative on economic recovery. The main concern of the people is unemployment (76%), followed by corruption.

The CIS survey estimates that PP could be still in first place, in the assumption that its voters are the most reluctant to express confidence in the ruling party which supports an extremely unpopular government. More than 86% distrusts Rajoy and ministers score between 1.5 (José Ignacio Wert, Education) and 2.9 (Soraya Sáez de Santamaría, Deputy PM) in a 1-10 scale. To the contrary, the voters of the emerging Podemos are in all likelihood more ready to say which party they support. It might be a risky presumption.

The estimation of results, familiarly known in Spain as "cocina" ("kitchen"), is surrounded by a great uncertainty amongst the pollsters. The statistic adjust of the raw data becomes increasingly difficult in these agitated times, there are more hidden and undecided voters than ever and the rise of an unprecedented electoral phenomenon. In consequence, the old ways to estimate results based partially on electoral precedents are of no use. Pollsters are suffering what someone has called a "nightmare in the kitchen" and different polls make different estimations based on similar data. On the other hand, the Podemos vote intention was even higher in the Metroscopia poll (22%) in coincidence with a new scandal around PP, with a former PSOE mayor involved as well.

3) Provenance of Podemos support:



The largest group is people disillusioned with PSOE, followed by "others", former abstainers, and former IU and PP voters. In relative terms, the surge of Podemos damages more IU (46%) than PSOE (25%) or PP (6%) and it's remarkable the impact in UPyD (29%). Obviously, the size of PP and PSOE electoral base is bigger than the one of IU and UPyD.

4) Self perceived location of Podemos supporters on the ideological axis compared to average:



Pablo Iglesias stresses that Podemos is seeking for the "centrality" of the Spanish politics, as said "central position" is key to win elections. Even though the leaders and the programmatic agenda are clearly on the left, Iglesias rejects to fight the battle in a classical confrontation between the left and the right. Oftentimes Iglesias has stated in speeches that the left has been defeated in all grounds. The Podemos founding core coincides in the uselessness of old left-wing politics such as "popular fronts" or "the union of the left", which is one of the main disagreements between Podemos and IU. The two sides of the axis for Podemos are the economic and political elites ("La Casta") on the one hand, and the common people on the other hand. They use frequently the expression "los de arriba" ("the highly placed") versus "los de abajo" ("the lowly placed"), which resembles me certain Bertolt Brecht poem. It's also a confrontation between "old" and "new" politics. Podemos has claimed to be a "transversal" force with proposals based on "common sense". Stances like those are used by the frightened adversaries to put the "populist" label on Podemos.

In the graph, you can see that the "centrality" in Spain is placed on the centre-left (4 and 5), whereas the bulk of Podemos support is placed on the left (3), with a greater share of support in the milder centre-left (4,5) in comparison with the far-left (1,2), falling abruptly from the 6 onwards. The support for Podemos is more inclined towards the left than the average, but not much more. PSOE's support is largely confined to the centre-left and IU's to the left of the axis, while Podemos lies somewhere between both. It's remarkable that, according to CIS data on spontaneous replies, Podemos support is pretty much interclassist. Podemos natural ground seems to be the precariat and in general the losers of the crisis, also it has a surprisingly high level of support among the highest social categories in the CIS survey. Podemos has the highest vote intention among the 18-34 and 35-54 age groups; only the +65 people is resistant to Podemos' appeal and remains loyal to the establishment parties.  Therefore, the author of the graph concludes in his analysis that Podemos is not a party with an extremist base, nor obviously a centrist deideologised force... even though they have appropriated the concept of "transversality" more successfully than UPyD, the party which claims the ownership of the label. According to that, Podemos is placing itself on the centre of the left to prepare its assault on power.

[Lief 🗽]

So if I'm understanding correctly, the 2nd graph is the raw polling data, and the 1st graph is what polling firms estimate the election result would actually be based on the polling data?

[Velasco]

Yes, exactly. Also, pollsters are not sure about how to correctly estimate based on raw polling data.

[Velasco]

The regional premier of Extremadura, José Antonio Monago (PP), is involved in a vaudevillesque scandal which dates back to his term as Senator. Between 2009 and 2010 Monago made 32 trips to the Canaries -fliying in business class, of course- paid by the Senate. Monago claimed that they were "business trips" to deal with important issues, because he was the responsible for Andalusia and the Canaries in the Senate. However, PP has a good representation of senators from both regions and, when asked, some PP high rank members in the Canaries didn't know the reason of Monago's journeys to the islands and ignored the existence of a supposed Extremadura-Canarias parliamentary commission. Actually, Monago's trips were private. Between 2009 and 2011 the former senator had a relationship with a younger woman living in Tenerife island. Olga Henao (aged 36) is an entrepreneur of Colombian ancestry born in Mexico who lives in Tenerife since some years ago. She's a grassroot PP member in Santa Cruz de Tenerife and admitted to media her relationship with Monago. After that relationship came to an end, she had another relationship with Carlos Muñoz Obón, a PP deputy from Teruel who also made private trips to Tenerife paid by the Congress. Carlos Muñoz has been forced to resign by the Aragon premier Luisa Fernanda Rudi, because his trips might be legal but were unethical. Despite her little rank in PP, Olga Henao was one of the few privileged who assisted to the coronation of king Felipe, because of her relationship with that Aragonese deputy.

The issue, of course, is not the private relationships of PP members but the inappropiate use of public funds for private purposes.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/11/07/inenglish/1415379868_274756.html

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"Who is Olga?" (in Spanish but includes a pic of her):

http://www.eldiario.es/tenerifeahora/Olga_0_321968249.html

José Antonio Monago firstly denied the private nature of his trips, claiming that he always went "to work honestly" but failing to explain what he did in Tenerife. Today Monago states that he's going to pay back the money, without admitting he told lies in previous days. Yesterday Monago claimed that the affair was a "conspiracy" to throw him because of his independence. Monago governs with parliamentary support form IU, was opposed to the controversial abortion bill which the government withdrew recently and even stated that he could govern with Podemos if necessary. In a PP meeting in Cáceres which attended Rajoy and several PP regional leaders, Monago had a talk with the Spanish PM and the Aragonese premier and changed his tactic. In the meeting, Monago apologised to "good faith people" for his many mistakes, said that he's a "honest and hard working person" who loves Extremadura and was much applauded by PP members attending. Monago is not going to resign and PP's national leadership supports him.

[Velasco]

Sigma Dos / El Mundo:

[Velasco]

Glorious news. Health Minister Ana Mato resigns.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/11/27/inenglish/1417074105_387389.html

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[Velasco]

For the first time, PP expresses willingness to enter in a Grosse Koalition with PSOE. PP secretary general Dolores de Cospedal says that a grand coalition is "not aimed at neutralizing anybody (Podemos) but meant to guarantee the governability of the country". By the moment, socialists say "no, no and no".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/12/02/inenglish/1417539909_575245.html

In other news, Podemos unveiled the first outlines of its economic agenda in a 60 page document signed by economists Juan Torres and Vicenç Navarro. According to El Pais, Podemos "abandons most radical proposals". The document favors an organised restructuring or agreed write-down of the debt, as well the proposal for an universal minimun wage is transformed into a subsidy for all those people without an income*. Seville University lecturer Juan Torres said that the principle of guaranteeing income has its roots in the northern European social democrattic tradition, while Pablo Iglesias said  "the proposals that we are taking up are ones that until not long ago any socialdemocrat was taking up". Some people see in this "socialdemocratic drive" an attempt to erode (even more) PSOE's base and there is concern among socialists, whose strategy in dealing Podemos has changed from accusing them of "populists" to highlight the "extremist background" of the new party's leaders.

*High unemployment rates in addition to the little coverage of unemployment subsidies make that income poverty is affecting around 700 thousand families. In the graph below, unemployment duration (left) and families in income poverty (right).



Other proposals include fixing retirement age at 65 "on a flexible basis" (the Podemos' manifesto for the EP elections lowered it at 60); and widening public financing through increasing public banking plus an overhaul of the Official Credit Institute (ICO), in order to facilitate access to credit and reactivate the economy.

Podemos will debate the document internally, as well with business leaders and unions.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/11/28/inenglish/1417170085_999647.html

"An Economic Project for the People" (Podemos' document by Torres and Navarro in Spanish):

http://estaticos.elperiodico.com/resources/pdf/7/8/1417174096987.pdf?_ga=1.178926887.2051172562.1417570836

IU coordinator Cayo Lara announced that he's not going to contest leadership in the next year's general elections, paving the way to Alberto Garzón, a 29 year old deputy and economist. So far, Garzón is the only person in IU who has stated his intention to top the IU list.

On the other hand, IU held primaries in Madrid, in order to elect candidates for regional and municipal elections. The list topped by regional deputies Tania Sánchez and Mauricio Valiente achieved a clear victory over the candidacy backed by regional coordinator Eddy Sánchez, although it wasn't the huge landslide that some predicted. The 'official' faction led by Eddy Sánchez was advocating to preserve IU's personality and weigh in future electoral coalitions, while dissidents led by Tania Sánchez are in favour of a full integration in the "Ganemos" platforms (in which IU would converge with other left-wing parties and social movements, maybe including Podemos in local elections... or not) to "build an alternative to PP in Madrid".

IU's 'official' faction has been ruling the Madrid federation in Madrid since the 90s and has been touched by the Caja Madrid (Bankia) "black card" scandal (former IU members spent irregularly thousands of Euros) and the Podemos' surge, which has its strongest support base and membership in the Spain's capital. On her part, Tania Sánchez was accused of supposed irregularities when she was councilor in Rivas-Vaciamadrid by conservative media in the week before the primaries. The debate between factions was soured by allegations on Podemos' "infiltrators" in the electoral roll (IU members and sympathisers were eligible to vote). Also, the fact that Tania Sánchez is girlfriend of the Podemos' leader Pablo Iglesias might have created suspicions among certain people.

[Famous Mortimer]

How is Podemos polling first without obliterating the PSOE? Whowere Podemos supporters backing before?