Spain General Discussion

[Nanwe]

Velasco and I had been talking of making threads for this and that but not a general discussion thread, but I think a common thread would be more useful than a series of disperse ones.

Plus, since Julio is back and Spanish politics are getting more an dmore interesting lately what with the PSOE a few idiocies away from a harakiri on itself over the Catalan question...

And plus, the growth of UPyD and IU might finally break the old two-party system.

In other news, today, the Asturian Parliament votes on the reform of the electoral law. The reform was one of the conditions that UPyD established to support the PSOE government but it seems that the PSOE has gone back on its word and it'll vote against the reform, although the PSOE everywhere is in such a mess that perhaps they'll vote for at the last minute. And if they vote against, will UPyD abandon their first taste of 'government'?

[Nanwe]

Latest polling in Catalonia is rather shocking as well. ERC in first, C's and ICV-EUiA moving ahead of the PSC and PP... and in Valencia polling indicates a majority for the left/regionalists!

Spanish politics is absolutely fascinating atm (it always is, but what we're seeing now is really fascinating). It's a pity we can't have snap elections nationally and in every region

Yep. You refer to El Periódico's poll?

ERC ('left-wing' nationalism) 36-38
CiU (right-wing nationalism) 31-32
C's (vaguely centre-left constitutionalism) 16-18
PSC (nationalist and constitutionalist segments) 14-16
ICV (neutral, but support right to self-determination) 14-15
PP (right-wing constitutionalism)13-14
CUP (loony left nationalism) 6

Of course, all polls are biased to support whoever pays the newspaper. But I'd say that if this is true (and let's keep in mind that some PP voters tend to be ashamed to admit it) this is just the result of the radicalization of the politics in Catalonia and of the PSC's blandness and indecisiveness. They can't appeal to both natonalists and constitutionalists so they are losing them both. Massively.

The best part is that unless hostilities go down, Unió and Convergencia could go different ways and end their historic alliance. That could be very impressive.

Yesterday, Alfonso Guerra just proposed expelling PSC from PSOE and creating a new, clearly constitutionalist PSOE branch in Catalonia. That'd bring back many constitutionalists from Ciutadans.

Umm, yes, Valencia It's good. After so many years, it was about time for some political change. It's a pity that the PP didn't dislodge the corrupt Andalucian PSOE, but oh well.



Umm, UPyD won't support the Compromis nationalists but it would't support PP either (even if the propaganda of IU says UPyD is even worse than PP or PP lite). But it does look like PSOE-C-EUPV would have an absolute majority.

Is it possible the era of two parties is coming to an end? Maybe if we changed the electoral law at national level...

[Nanwe]

With the due respect, Alfonso Guerra is somewhat old-fashioned and, like many others in his party, doesn't understand what's happening with Catalonia or doesn't want to.

Besides corrupt, but that doesn't mean he isn't right. What is happening in Catalonia is the result of years of CiU propaganda of "Espanya ons roba" and "Spaniards are lazy scum" and of Pujolist "Catalonia is special". The difference this time being that CiU has ignited it in a time when people are prone to radicalization and as a result, they have clearly lost the control of the situation. However, I'm certain that a) there isn't going to be a referendum and b) there isn't going to be any sort of independence.

Sadly, even the younger Carme Chacón seems anchored in 80s stereotypes as thinking that the nationalist feelings in Catalonia are a bourgeois issue, towards which the popular classes feel nonchalance. A socialist split in Catalonia might end in a disaster. It might be the disappearance of what would remain of PSC, with the leaders of the Catalanist faction migrating to other parties. Montserrat Tura is increasingly near ERC, who knows where valuable young people like Rocío Martínez-Sampere or Laia Bonet might end. The Catalan branch of PSOE would be irreversibly an irrelevant party, virtually without presence out of Barcelona Metropolitan Region -where now it's weaker than ever-, dominated by a  handful of mayors, without cadres and lacking of a proper speech, indistinguishable from the populism of Ciutadans and PP's do nothing policy. Finally, it might be the irreversible disappearance of an extremely fragile third way to solve the Catalan question. Waving up the sacred Constitution won't persuade Catalans from their desire of having their referendum. If the battle in Catalonia is fought between its proper nationalism and the Spanish one, that part of Spain will go away one day or another.

I don't see that as true. The PSC is already doomed. If you asked anyone how to say screwed in Spanish, they'd probably answer PSOE. But a more clearly centre-left constitutionalism would work to bring back voters from C's. So they might as well and try to survive until the economy gets better and Mas gets what he wants (moar money).

There is not third way. There is a need for a reform in the Spanish structure of the state to a functional federalism but what is not acceptable and it is not tolerable is to give in to the nationalists. Because when you play with cheaters, you always lose. And if the Generalitat is good at something, that is cheating. The reform of the Constitution needs to create a mechanism to impose fines on the CCAA that fail to comply with judicial decisions. Catalonia has gotten away with tons of illegal stuff because no one forces them to comply with legislation as basic as to defend the average Joe.

The so-called third way is akin to the Ibarretxe plan and it's pure and simple nonsense, just like the UK's position in the EU. They want the good but not the bad, well, they'll have to choose.

I am not opposing a referendum, for all I care, Catalans can vote and gain independence and live in Pujolistan but I resent and I think it shows the way that the Catalan government expresses itself.

The so-called third way is akin to the Ibarretxe plan and it's pure and simple nonsense, just like the UK's position in the EU. They want the good but not the bad, well, they'll have to choose.

PSOE is proposing a federal reform of the constitution but, unfortunately, the party is burdened by the fear of being unpopular in the rest of Spain and its own centralist elements.

As I've said before I agree with some of their proposals, not the one about decentralizing the judicial system. But this is the PSOE, they are all cool and dandy in opposition, then they come to power and reveal themselves as either Machiavellian (Gonzalez) or naïve (ZP).

Voting in favour of UPyD's motion in the Parliament, which establishes of wily form that "the right to decide belongs all the Spanish People" -it's hard to explain to foreigners, it's like referenda in Scotland and Quebec had to be voted by all British and Canadian- was -in my opinion and even if it seems odd-, a round strategical mistake.

It might have been, but it's simply natural to uphold the law and a sign of how Soraya Rodriguex is taking the PSOE to the right.

The law is to be followed, especially the Constitution. If it needs to be changed, it has to, but until then, the law is the law. I know this position is sort of polemic in some circles, but I don't care.

Worse still, the fact that PSC deputies were voting against might end in a sanction. Discipline of vote is an aberration in cases like this and the lack of criteria take away credibility from PSOE's federalism and proposals of reform. At this point, what can offer Spain to Catalonia to stay?

To Catalonia there's nothing to offer. Catalonia doesn't exist, it's a mental construct. Catalans on the other hand can be offered many things: Political stability, a larger market, a more independent judiciary system, the euro, membership in the EU and a check on CiU and ERC's government's tendency to do illegal things.


To the second post, C's is a decent party, a response to the PP's limited social appeal and the PSC's collapse due to their ambiguity. ERC on the hand I despise. They could kill their own mothers if someone promised them in return an independent Catalonia. They aren't left-wing, they are just nationalistic, and anything and everything can be sacrificed in exchange. That level of fundamentalism is sickening.

EDIT: Umm, this post came off as angry. Well, I suppose I'm indignant with situation.

[Nanwe]

Well, your reply is an example of what many people outside Catalonia thinks about what's going on. I'm not going to defend the traditional Catalan nationalism which CiU represents, but anyway. It's true that there's some arrogance in certain Catalans (though I don't think that's the general attitude) and, certainly, the "Espanya nos roba" slogan is pure demagoguery. However, it's a huge oversimplification claiming that nationalist propaganda is the origin of the problem. That "radicalization" is the result of multiple factors: social changes, evolution of the Catalan nationalism from reformist stances to sovereignism, a huge feeling among Catalans of all tendencies of being misunderstood and battered by Spain... Don't forget that in parallel with what you call "years of CiU propaganda", the Spanish right (PP and friendly media) has launched anti-Catalan campaigns in the rest of Spain. Also, the sentence of the (partisan) Constitutional Court on the Catalan Statute angered many people. Dissafection is the natural consequence.

I know, heck my parents participated in that bullsh**t about not buying Catalan products when the Estatut controversy. But the things is that the Catalans, even if they feel that way (which ofc is what counts), aren't misunderstood or ignored or anything. That's mostly empty talk.

TBH, I can't remember all the fuzz about the Estatut so I don't remember, but there was polemic stuff about language use and right to determination or what not? I just don't think teaching integrally in Catalan is tolerable, besides not legal.

I still fail to grasp the desaffection. Catalans aren't oppressed, and while the economic situation is bad, it's the fault of their governments (tripartito mostly) not of the rest of the country. To me it looks like the rest of Spain is a scapegoat for their troubles.

Why do you take for granted that there isn't going to be a referendum nor Catalan independence? I don't have a crystal ball, but for sure if a massive portion of Catalan wants a referendum and Spain doesn't give it to them, resentment will grow. When one of the two in a couple wants to go, the marriage usally ends in divorce.

Well, I'm of the opinion that CiU is using the referendum as a tool. It'd be best for CiU to be denied the referendum as to still have it as a tool for future years about how Spain was evil and didn't let it happen. I know that a large part of the people want it, but keep in mind that most Spaniards have a centralist mentality, that's a) and b) that the majority of the political class is pretty much self-absorbed.

Why do I assess it this way? CiU seems to be on the break of dissolving due to internal differences between Duran i Lleida (Unió) and Mas (CDC), the PP is clearly but slowly moving towards finding a common position with Mas and he has also toned down his rhetoric and even has started to dismiss the issue of the referendum.

Besides, they won't go to a referendum unless they would be certain that their most favoured result happens, whether it is losing by a large margin or winning by a large margin. Right now, iirc, the majority of people polled have only become more souveranist recently and are considerably less so if Catalonia were to leave the EU (which is what would happen if they left Spain). I am pretty sure that while support for the referendum might remain high in the future, support for independence is going to go down.

By the way, Alfonso Guerra is not the corrupt. It was his brother.

I know that, the case Guerra and what not. But it's not like Gonzalez's 12 years weren't the most corrupt period in our recent history (post-Franco, obviously)

PSC may be doomed. Anyway, that center left "Constitutionalism" wouldn't suppose any difference with PP and the Rivera troupe in the eyes of center left Catalanists (note that it's not exactly the same that "nationalists", even when there's an overlap). A party like that will be marginal in Catalan politics. Of course, there's a need to reform the territorial structure in a functional way, but it won't work if you don't consider the regional identities (I mean Catalan and Basque, but not only). "When you play with cheeters" is another example of what is going wrong. If you want to keep the country united, you'll have to consider two facts:

a) Spain is diverse and there are national/regional identities inside her.
b) Peripheral nationalism exists and it's not possible to marginalize it. You are condemned to negotiate, perhaps a to a permanent negotiation.

The pretension of that difuse Third Way is looking for the solution of the sudoku. Supporters of Catalan independence and Spain's centralism deny that possibility. It goes in the interest of the most fervent partidaries of independence the failure of an alternative way. I don't understand that comparison with the Ibarretxe plan. Some well intentioned proposals may have flaws, but I don't see the connection between PSC and the former lehendakari, to give an example.

I actually think that it could. Many of these people, who lives in Barcelona's metropolitan area and are sons of immigrants and now vote C's because they don't feel at home in the PSC anymore could very well return. Of course, the last time PSOE tried to go into Catalonia without the PSC (was it 1977?) it ended up badly...

What do you mean by 'consider the regional identities'? If you mean what I think it does, a federal structure with clear-cut structures would be good. To me, Spain is clearly a plurinational state with further nacionalidades inside Castille's nationhood of sorts (doesn't help the provincialism of most Castillians, the patria chica and what not) but one of equals. Catalonia or the Basques should not be special, so the Basque's concierto should most likely be given to all CCAA and we should probably absorb some of the smaller CCAA into the bigger ones, although that's too courageous a decision.

But the regions, Catalonia too, have to follow the law, even their own law, in many cases the Generalitat ignores what the TSJC dictates so... I see a lot of fanaticism and lack fo respect for the imperio de la ley in the Generalitat.

That's right. You have to observe the law. Anyway, that's not the point of the UPyD motion in the Congress. In fact, you don't need to approve a text that repeats what Spain's Constitution says on national sovereignty. That motion was simply a nationalist proclaim and Rubalcaba ceded before Guerra, Chaves and other PSOE "constitutionalists". It wasn't Soraya.

Actually: check this. Sorry it was Soraya Díez. I get confused with all the Sorayas...

"Hay que enviar un mensaje claro a toda España de que estamos con la Constitución”.

All in all, with this situation I suffer a duality, on the one hand the possibility of secession worries me a lot. On the other hand, God, how I'm enjoying seeing the PP and PSOE crumble away piece by piece.

----

On other news, UPyD has ended its support for the PSOE after they voted against the proposed reform of the electoral law in the region. Now PSOE-IU have a minority and 22 seats, the same as PP-Foro Asturias. Coalition politics at its best. Who'd have thought this thing could happen in Spain?

Article here: El País

[Nanwe]

It's pretty obvious when you talk with Catalans or when you go there. It's not empty talk at all. Many Spaniards know nothing about how Catalans are and judge them on stereotypes: "Catalans are stingy", "Catalans are cadging" (when conversation is about Catalan demands). There's a big incomprehension and this factor is arguably in the origin of the problem. Furthermore, even when claims like "Spain is stealing us" are demagogic, there's a grain of truth in them as regional financing is unfavourable to Catalonia.

To be honest, the last time I went to Catalonia I was 6 or so, so I couldn't say. But the thing to me, is that culturally, Catalonia is probably closer to Valladolid or Madrid or Burgos than Andalucia, so besides the language barrier, I've never seen such large differences. Using stereotypes is wrong, but Catalans also use them and tend to be the kind of "Spaniards are lazy".

Of course the regional financing system is weird, but back in 1996 when the PP negotiated with PNV and CiU the concierto in exchange for voting in Aznar's favour, the PP offered the same deal to the Catalan government and they rejected it. The system is just messed up, it makes no sense for rich CCAA like the Basques and Navarrese gain money from the funds. Rich regions, should give money to the poorer ones. Even the Catalan government recognizes that, but some of the arguments of the Catalans, like limiting the movement of funds never being more than a 4% (of the regional GDP? I don't remember 4% of what atm), are more limited that those in the German federal system. And while people can accept a federal Spain, a confederal model is not so easy to accept, especially when the Catalans are being seen as selfish and capricious. The selfish part I understand it's common to all, it's not like Madrid's government isn't being dickish. But the capricious part is much more clear, but I suppose that it's the result of how there is no limit to the competences CCAA can gain.

I think that from now on, the government should try to be more appealing to Catalans, try to make them see that Spain is there for them too and that the politicians care. Back in the 70s, the national leaders used Catalan in Catalonia and even when Aznar was said to use Catalan in private, feeling were positive. So I suppose that even aesthetic changes of this sort could help a lot to make Catalans feel at home in the madre patria (nationalist expression indeed, but I couldn't resist )

Even if Mas wanted to go back, the pressure of Catalan society might force him to go ahead. Nowadays CiU governs in minority with ERC confidence and supply. Every time Artur Mas insinuates a delay in the common sovereignist agenda, ERC comes behind to make clear that the calendar is non negotiable. Apparently there were contacts between Rajoy and Mas under the table. By the moment, nothing has changed. PP and CDC maintain their respective nationalist stances, the first under the "constitutionalist" camouflage. The collision course is far away from being stopped. As for Durán, if Mas is in a weak position, it's still worse for the UDC leader. Durán has the support of some businessmen, but he's very unpopular and CDC militancy hates him for being a traitor. Furthermore, if CiU breaks down, it will be ERC who is going to gather the pieces together. Polls say they might be the major partners in a future nationalist government.`

It's true that for the moment nothing has changed, but I do think that slowly everyone is coming together. The charade part of everyone speaking loudly to appease their voters is coming to an end and now it's time to negotiate and sit down.

But it's true that ERC is the true problem here, as the nationalist positions have hardened, ERC, as the most radical nationalist party than isn't entirely nuts (unlike SI or CUP) it's going to grow. But since according to most polls and research a large motivation is economic, if an agreement between Rajoy and Mas is achieved, and I'm sure it will whether by action or inaction (Rajoy being Rajoy, a mix of both).

CiU is more a part of the big business than even the PP and the Catalan entrepreneurial class has already spoken against independence, that is going to be very important to keep in mind, CiU will have to give in if they want to continue with their support, since their social policy (cuts that make the PP look like IU) and corruption cases (Pallerols,  ITV, Palau, Clotilde, Adigsa cases) are eroding their popular support.

Duran is not a traitor though. He represents Unió, and Unió is too conservative to want independence. Unió is probably the most proper conservative party of Spain because the PP is always mixing right-wing populism, neoliberalism, Thatcherism, nationalism and Christian democracy in a weird mishmash to appeal to both the urban middle classes and the conservative segments of society.

I'd like to think that letting things go their course, the "independence soufflé" will go down again. However, that theory has been denied by reality several times. Remember the last Diada: that impressive human chain across Catalonia.

The problem here is that the Catalans against independence have only very rarely spoke up, for fear of being signalled out as Francoists or españolistas. While I don't deny the large support for independence, the Catalan is, according to polls, very divided on this issue and it doesn't help that position favourable to Spain are still seen poorly by society, and not just the Catalan society.

That assertion has been denied by Bárcenas, Francisco Camps, Jaume Matas, the Duke of Palma (the infamous Urdangarín) and some other examples. Not to mention Jesús Gil and Marbella. Guerra's brother and the good Roldán turn pale in comparison. The several corruption scandals in the González era lack of the magnitude of the Gürtel and Bárcenas cases. Corruption in Costa del Sol, Valencia and other places was a product of the real estate bubble, which started by 1998, under the Aznar administration.

Sorry, I meant to say administration. While it's obvious that corruption became (more) commonplace during 1998-2007 at a regional and local level, I would argue that Aznar's government reduced the corruption at the national level of the administration. Obviously the party is corrupt, but they did reduce the corruption in the civil service. The corruption stemming from the 1998 reforms can't be entirely be attributed to the PP, in part because many city councils and regions were governed by the PSOE and because the PSOE did nothing to change the situation after 2004. It's not like the PSOE is innocent either and the case of the EREs in Andalucia just show how corrupt they are too.

Ah, the two Sorayas ... But the news that you linked mentions Susana Díaz, the woman that replaced Griñán as Andalusian PM. Notice that Guerra and Chaves are from Andalusia, the main power base for PSOE. I've read there this sentence by some socialist deputies: " How is it possible that that we could think of abstaining in an offer that the only thing that it does is to defend the Constitution?" I think many socialists have fallen in the rhetoric trap of Rosa Díez. UPyD leader stated that she didn't want to hurt PSOE. I can't believe in her innocence. Everybody in Catalonia understands this as a proclaim of Spanish nationalism. For me it's troublesome, to say the least.

Well the PSOE has to walk a very tight rope, PSC and PSOE-A are the main federations, especially now that the PSOE is pretty much outside of government in the rest of Spain and it isn't too likely they'll get into any government for a while. Andalucia is clearly against referendum or concessions, they need the money and since most Catalan attacks have gone against Andalucians it's understandable they are less inclined to be nice. Mas said publicly that no one understands Andalucians when they speak. That really is offensive, it's one of those things you don't say, even if you think it.

I think we need the opinion of an insider, so where's Julio when you need a PSOE apparatchik () to be to give his opinion and give us the perspective from inside Madrid' PSOE? It's the regional federation to be most affected by UPyD's meteoric rise in the polls.

Well, you know I'm a UPyD supporter and probably a member if I were living in Spain. But of course she's not innocent, if she were, she wouldn't be in politics, she'd be working for Caritas. This was clearly a way to increase division in the PSOE and make the party more appealing to people unhappy with the PSOE's ambiguous, even contradictory policy in this field, who are not so willing to give in to Catalan demands but who would most likely never, or only if very hardly pressed, vote PP.

One problem with your assessment, I'd think, is that you are identifying Catalonia as a victim that needs to be appeased. But, I think that here there is not victim, and no appeasement, what is needed is a radical change in Spain, and Catalonia is a part of Spain, one that finally and at least for the next 20 years or so can placate the constantly re-emerging identity debate. I need to write down a series of proposals I have in my head for said restructuring, but that takes time.

On a different topic, I have decided to restart my idea for the whole Spain including Portugal thing once again, but this time more professionally, so I'd love some help.

[Nanwe]

One problem with your assessment, I'd think, is that you are identifying Catalonia as a victim that needs to be appeased. But, I think that here there is not victim, and no appeasement, what is needed is a radical change in Spain, and Catalonia is a part of Spain, one that finally and at least for the next 20 years or so can placate the constantly re-emerging identity debate. I need to write down a series of proposals I have in my head for said restructuring, but that takes time.

On a different topic, I have decided to restart my idea for the whole Spain including Portugal thing once again, but this time more professionally, so I'd love some help.

Absolutely not. I don't think Catalans are victims. However, they have been badly treated by some in the rest of Spain. What most of them reclaim is more respect and comprehension. Even our hard right Thatcherite Esperanza Aguirre cynically admits that we need to take a more charitable view of Catalan people. I can't imagine greater hypocrisy. Besides the nation's main joker, Cristóbal Montoro, states that we need to be "tactful" on the Catalan question. At least Rosa Díez is more honest expressing her views, such as peripheral nationalists are "cheaters" and attempts of approaching stances with them are "appeasement". I don't believe in the moral superiority of Spain's nationalism/constitutionalism. As I said above, it will never be possible a change of the territorial structure without taking into account certain singularities of some parts of Spain. What UPyD proposes on the subject is basically a complete uniformity. It won't work in a country heterogeneous in nature. It had to be some assymetry. Some regions will never accept anything by imposition or a cut in their autonomy and competences.

Can you give details of your project about Spain and Portugal?

Alright, I got that feeling because you differentiated in your last post between Catalans and Spaniards and that seemed strange to me. Actually the badly treated aspect is something I'm not too certain about, could you provide some examples? (I'm serious, not being sarcastic).

I can understand that Spain is heterogeneous but the problem is that the current system is unfair to all because of undue influence by CiU and PNV in government. The thing is that from my point of view, there is no need for special treatment, because no matter the language, everyone is Spanish, and while this is some sort of non-Castillian-based vision (even though it's hard to be more castellano than me )of Spanish identity that most people don't share, it's not a bad one. It's time to redefine being Spanish, 1/5 of all Spaniards speak Catalan, into a flexible and accepting identity not castrated by the phantom of Franco.

That's where I disagree with UPyD I'm fine with retaining education and healthcare in the regional level, I think that under the subsidiarity principle (one the best products of Catholic political thinking) education is important to be autonomous, non-comprehensive and close to the local people as it serves best to adapt itself to a community's needs. Not so sure about healthcare, that might be best run at a national level... I just want people to respect the law and for the state to have coercive powers if they fail to.

Perhaps adding some sort of mechanism in the Constitution that while allowing no further extension of powers to the regions (not like there's much more to delegate or devolve), it could allow regions, through referendums, to return powers to Madrid.

And meh, Aguirre is just trying to play high politics because she knows that Rajoy is crumbling and she has wanted his post since before she was born. There's indeed a need to be tactful, but do keep in mind that UPyD appeared in the Basque Country and as a result it is a party much more involved in the identity conflict than either PP or PSOE or IU.

About the whole thing with Spain and Portugal I'll PM you.

[Nanwe]

Alright, Nanwe.

Changing topic. Aznar publishes his memories. He tells that he entrusted CNI (Spain's intelligence agency) a report on the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which wasn't conclusive on the responsibility for the terrorist attack. Basically, CNI's director Jorge Dezcallar wrote that Spanish intelligence was clueless and didn't detect signals of the authorship. Given that ETA terrorist group had plenty of infiltrated agents, it would have been strange that CNI had not could detect anything from that side. By that time Aznar and his Interior minister, Ángel Acebes, sustained that ETA was behind the massacre. Later on, once Zapatero was in office, a media campaign was launched to question the judicial investigation. About Zapatero's investiture speech says the following:  "Investiture. Zapatero's speech in a Zapatero's tone of which already one sees the bottom: dialog, more dialog, only dialog, opposite to my omnipotence and authoritarianism". Opening Pandora's box:  " He opens all the problems without closing any: constitutional reform, reform of the statutes, antiterrorist setback. Clear attitude of trying to isolate the PP: all against the PP. About economy, he doesn't speak; homosexual marriage, equality, etc. I overturn in foreign policy. The retreat of the troops in Iraq is not mentioned ". On Zapatero's talante (good mood, liberal-minded): it's a "new silliness" of the progressive mentality of the political correctness. I adore this man

Aznar is right in that Zapatero did isolate the PP, but it's not like the PP weren't a bunch of sore losers that whenever ZP said yes, they said no, and if he said no they said yes. It became a reflex for them.

Zapatero did open the Pandora box to a point, but it's not like Aznar hadn't done it in 1996 either, so that's typical PP hypocrisy when it comes to dealing with the nationalists.

In all other fronts, that's silly. The CNI is incompetent, but that much...?

[Nanwe]

Can someone give a summary of the last PSOE leadership race?

The last one? Well, back in 2000, with the 35th Congress, there were three candidates: Zapatero, sort of Third Way, social liberalism (also supported by guerristas, the left-wing of the establishment); José Bono, socially more conservative and the establishment candidate (supported by Chaves and the felipistas) and Rosa Díez, now leader of UpyD.

This article is really good: in Spanish though.

In 2011, there was this idea (read: propaganda) to have a race between Rubalcaba and Chacón but she decided to retire from the possibility of entering the race and Rubalcaba simply was hailed as new leader.

Mind you, this is better than the PP though, they don't even bother with sham conventions

[Nanwe]

Secession will not happen.


Anyway, I'm kind of surprised that Rajoydi survived the sobre-sueldos scandal. It was something that you could expect from inherent corrupt countries as Argentina, but not Europe.

PSOE is still the lesser evil.

PSOE is just as bad and Andalucia is the perfect example:the  PER designed to create clients among the rural population, the huge ERE scandal in which funds for fake early retirements were used to pay party members and their families and even for party members to use drugs...

Surprised? He's a PP politician. It's a party designed around the leader and which allows no internal dissent, you are either in or out.

[Nanwe]

You have at least three options: you can withdraw the subsidy from the laborers and they will starve, you can maintain it in order that they survive or you must collectivize the land

Or a fourth and my preferred idea. Split the latifundii into smaller plots and create a program for investment to develop a high-value agriculture with a double aim: Take voters away from the PSOE () and increase the wealth in southern Spain, à la Almería. It's like going back to the 20s-30s plans of agrarian reform.

I have wondered though why corruption has never been a bigger issue. I suppose that because most people tended to benefit prior to the crisis to the government's neglect in some areas?

[Nanwe]

Also, do you really believe Rajoy has full support from his party? What about Esperanza Aguirre and her allies in the media? I mean, even Intereconomía group was attacking Rajoy when Bárcenas went rogue.

That doesn't matter. The next PP Congress will be held in 2016 so until then unless there's a rebellion within the Cabinet nothing will come of it. All PP barones (except Madrid's Ignacio Gonzalez, and even he is less anti-Rajoy than Aguirre) and important members are pro-Rajoy. Aguirre and Aznar have support among the hard right base, but the PP is not the GOP, no one gives a sh**t about the bases except during the electoral campaign.

Intereconomia and related have been attacking Rajoy since 2004 when they call him "maricomplejines" (Mariano the pussy, very liberal translation)

As a liberal (in the normal sense of the word, not the yank definition) I guess I should support UPyD but I don't believe they are able to be the government and not just another opposition party.

Well, if we were to go by that logic, then only PP and PSOE wuld ever be elected because the rest of the Parliament is in permanent opposition. By just looking at the polls, UPyD and IU ae going to play important roles in the future parliament, whether by entering coalitions, supply and confidence deals or by being blocked by a grand coalition.

Also, funnily enough, in Spain, liberal is a term used by the hard right to refer to themselves. People who are much closer to libertarianism, Thatcherism and/or GOP fanboys tend to classify themselves as liberales.

[Nanwe]

Intereconomia and related have been attacking Rajoy since 2004 when they call him "maricomplejines" (Mariano the pussy, very liberal translation)

That was Jiménez Losantos, when he was still in "La Mañana" of La COPE.

You don't have to tell me , my father listened to it regligiously every morning.

But Losantos and Intereconomia are very close, although I'd say Losantos is more of a Spanish nationalist than a hardline rightists such as those in Intereconomia. They'd be closer to Cesar Vidal, I'd say.

[Nanwe]

So Izquierda Abierta is finally slowly drifting away from IU, now controlled once again by the PCE, towards the PSOE?

Also, interesting proposals but I don't trust the PSOE. And the inclusion of Garzón is outright disgusting. I really, really dislike Spain's most overrated and politicized judge. Judges that work diligently and without caring about the cameras (like Alaya and Ruz) should be applauded, but media whores like Garzón should be reprimanded, luckily he has.

Though I'd like to see the supposed reforms in a more clear way when they present them. I'm not a big referendum fan, however.

Also, I love how the PSOE always forgets what it does in government when in opposition, it's not like the policies of Rajoy weren't initiated by Zapatero. As Pedro J. said, quousque tandem abutere, Zapatero, patientia nostra? It's being taken out of context, of course, although the article itself was marvellous just in how good a writer Pedro J. is.

[Nanwe]

Regardless what you think about super judge Garzón, he was the object of a disgusting vengeance by his peers, plenty of resentment, partisanship and corporate spirit. Alaya, for her part, has a curious sense of political opportunity and she's not better than Garzón in the formal aspects of preliminary investigations. Among mediatic judges, I give more credit to Ruz in what regards working quietly. 

I'd add Grande Marlasca but I haven't heard about him in quite a while.

About Alaya and tbh nowadays I only follow national news and from abroad so I couldn't say about her. I just like the courage to bring down the system.

Which leads me to Garzón. I think that trying to do good for the victims of the war and the post-war is good. Now that does not mean that that condones (imho) the illegal wiring of conversations and in particular all the political positions he has taken over the years. And while he is not the only one (c'mon, the magistratura can't be independent considering the system for appointing the CGPJ or the Supremo or the Constitucional), he clearly is the most outspoken. Interestingly, I'm very conservative when it comes to legal stuff, but well, in any case

Pedro J is a good writer when he wants, indeed. However, I suspect he's forgetting intentionally some differences between Zapatero and Rajoy. Some measures the latter is adopting, in order to dismantle public education and the National Health System, have an obvious ideological motivation. Zapatero had never gone so far. And it's true, often PP and PSOE forget what both promise before elections.

So we agree in pretty much everything except the dismantling thing

The whole "they are dismanting education" is also used in the right to claim that the PSOE wants to make children dumber so they vote PSOE (oh boy, how many times have I heard that one). The new law is probably never going to be applied and in my opinion it introduces some interesting factors and some bad ones, but I am of the opinion that a reform should be done to move away from comprehensive education and into a more divided education system (à la Germany or NL).

As to the education, while cuts are being considerable, I don't think they are trying to dismantle it. That's something really unfair to say. Even from a purely malicious perspective as to their actions, they'd never dismantle a system that benefits one of their core voters: old people.

Madrid has spearheaded the introduction of private hospitals in the system of public healthcare. It's done in other countries. I don't think it's necessary as our current system is fairly good as it is, pretty efficient considering how some CCAA are ridiculously small. But if they can prove it works better, I'm ok with it. Since so far no one has said anything in favour nor against with hard facts (or I haven't seen them), I'm interested in seeing what'll happen.

And now. I swear tomorrow I'll put up some rough guideline to my messy, "transversal" (not a UPyD reference, I swear) mind.

Also Julio, interesting. But are there still people named Gervasio?

[Nanwe]

I didn't study laws and I can't say if phone tapping was correct from a legal point of view. If I remember well, the Public Prosecutor's Office said that it was. Anyway, I suspect the main problem with the super judge were his political stances and the overwhelming conservatism of our judiciary. For Pedro J and right-wing media Garzón was a hero when he investigated GAL, but rather annoying when he sought for Pinochet's extradition or prosecuted PP's corruption in Valencia and Madrid. Double standard, as usual.

Phone tapping is allowed provided that you have authorization and you have clear proof as to why you need it.
Double standards in the press are el pan nuestro de cada día, but it's true. Some however say that Garzon acted against PSOE due to spite that he wasn't named VP by Gonzalez in 1993 (Or was it 1989?).

Funny thing, I don't see as bad having a conservative judiciary. It's natural they are closed class, one that to enter requires a large time of study, something that not everyone can afford and that even if you can, judges tend to have a lofty living, so it's natural that judges tend to be to the right.

As someone who would't mind a harsher judicial system and strict adherence to the law's wording, I actually don't mind it. But if it gets in the way of judicial autonomy and independence, then it's a problem.

I've read little on Wert's projects for professional training and more about his idea of "educational routings". Some people think that a 13 year old kid is too young to choose his (her) vital project. A system that doesn't allow you to change your route may be unfair. In Germany professional training works pretty well and many would want to import some elements of the system. However, its main disadvantage is that it doesn't favour social mobility, because people is professionally orientated from early dates. .

Formacion profesional is very neglected in our system, it might have been actually been better seen during Franco what with the technical universities and what not. But it needs to be revamped and not have the negative connotation it has. Otherwise we will continue to have the huge problem of having on the one hand a very (perhaps even over-)prepared workforce who went to university (even if Spanish universities are bad) and people who only finished ESO and as a result are a very unskilled workforce.

The German system does allow to change paths though. I don't see it bad to elect a path when you are 12 or 13 (probably 13 is better), most teachers already know if a student is a good one, a regular one or a burden on the rest of the class by this time and I think that it would be best then to try and match people's abilities to their educational possibilities. I have been in too many classes where I got bored as hell because the teacher had to explain over and over again the same thing to a single person who would be best described as a troublemaker.

Actually, perhaps it'd be a good idea to start university not at 18, but 19.

By preparing people better for the work environment, I'd argue it increases social mobility. Spain has a large problem of a ever-large unemployment rate due to unprepared workers on the one hand and over-prepared on the other.

Anyway, educational projects need funds, political agreement and dialog with fathers, teachers and all the educational community. It's impossible to argue in favour of Wert's ability to negotiate, disposal to dialog or even emotional intelligence. Funds are nonexistent

No, he really does not know the word 'to negotiate'. He knows to go forward pushing everyone and then being blocked. But in any case, it's not like the law will become effective ever. Its implementation's start has already been postponed by the government and many CCAA have concern about it, Catalonia the most (although I disagree with the inmersión system).

You don't need the Madrid 'experiment' to see what happens. 'Experimental' hospitals with private management failed miserably in Valencia (search for 'Alzira model'). Hospitals have losses, financed by taxpayers. Also, experiments are rather silly when you have a system that works. The clever thing is maintaining the model and correcting the flaws. Spain is the OECD country with the lowest health spending and still our health system is reasonably -and sometimes remarkably- good. But our government and conservatives talk about "inefficiency". Unless they are considering how efficiently Thatcher destroyed the British NHS or the money is wasted in Valencia. It must be a reflex action. Many in PP dream with Chile.

Reading on the Alzira model atm. 43 pages to go. So I'll comment later on. As I said I've never had a problem with the current system. Though, truth be told, I've always gone to private clinics, so I don't know much about how the public system works.

[Nanwe]

The next CIS poll should come soon. In the meantime, a poll from La Razón for the European elections next year:

-PP: 32% - 19/20 seats (-3/-4)
-PSOE: 27,9% - 16/17 seats (-4/-5)
-La izquierda: 12,7% - 7/8 seats (+5/+6)
-UPyD: 8,9% - 5/6 seats (+4/+5)
-CEU: 5% - 2/3 seats (=/+1)
-EdP-V: 4,8% - 2/3 seats (+1/+2)
-EQUO (plus Compromis and CHA): 2,8% - 1/2 seats (+1/+2)

With an estimated turnout of 41% (-3%).

I'd say that given that this is a La Razón poll, it seems balanced enough.

And for crazy polls:
Made by GEPS and reported by El Confidencial and El Plural with 1600 or so people answering.
It gives a prediction of:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 28%
IU: 13%
UPyD: 7%

Julio, so I was reading and is the PSOE going to put in the program the desire to break off the concordat with the Holy See?

[Nanwe]

Yes, indeed, it is a really dick move to do while many are abroad. I was actually talking to a friend who's doing right now her Erasmus in Heidelberg, you can imagine how much she loves it. Of course, she was also robbed off her excelence aid). Luckily, she's not one of the people who'll be forced to return to Spain ASAP, but those who have to, I suppose they can try to challenge it on the basis of legal certainty as the law clearly breaks the principle of non-retroactivity, but we'll see.

[Nanwe]

Habemus CIS

Link

And now to the important/interesting part of the report.

Question 17

How do you rate the PP policy as a whole?

Very Good ------> 0.4%
Good ------------> 5.3%
Regular ---------> 22.7%
Bad --------------> 29.6%
Very Bad --------> 39.8%
Doesn't Know --> 1.3%
Doesn't Answer > 0.9%

Question 18

How do you rate the PSOE's job as the opposition?

Very Good ------> 0.1%
Good ------------> 2.8%
Regular ---------> 23.6%
Bad --------------> 35.6%
Very Bad --------> 34.9%
Doesn't Know --> 2.1%
Doesn't Answer > 0.9%

Question 20

Does the PM, Mariano Rajoy inspire you confidence?

Lots of confidence: 1.8%
Yes: 8.9%
Somewhat: 26.6%
No confidence at all: 61.2%
Doesn't Know: 1.2%
Doesn't Answer: 0.4%

Question 21

Does the leader of the Opposition, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba inspire you confidence?

Lots of confidence: 0.7%
Yes: 6.3%
Somewhat: 35.7%
No confidence at all: 55.4%
Doesn't Know: 1.7%
Doesn't Answer: 0.3%

Question 25

Which one of the following territorial organization models do you prefer?

A state with a single, central government and no autonomous regions: 21.8%
A state in which the autonomous regions are less autonomous: 12.0%
A state with the autonomous regions as it stands today: 34.2%
A state in which the autonomous regions are more autonomous: 12.2%
A state that would recognize the autonomous regions the right of becoming independent states: 9.7%
Doesn't know: 8.1
Doesn't answer: 2.0

Question 22: [Direct vote intention]

PP: 11.4
PSOE: 13.0
IU (ICV in Catalonia): 8.5
UPyD: 4.8
CiU: 1.1
Amaiur: .6
PNV: .5
ERC: 2.0
BNG: .2
CC: .4
Compromís-Equo: .4
Geroa Bai: .0
UPN: .1
Other parties: 3.5
Blank vote: 7.2
Wouldn't vote: 22.0
Doesn't know yet: 21.5
Doesn't answer: 2.6

So, as a result of this, the polling atm stands at:

PP: 34% (-10.6%) [but better than in July]
PSOE: 26.8% -(2.1%)
IU: 11.5% (+4.6%)
UPyD: 7.7% (+3.1%) [but El País says it's at 8.8%] (decrease from last polling)
CiU: 2.9% (-1.3%)
ERC: 2.5% (+1.4%)
Amaiur: 1.2% (-0.2%)
PNV: 1.2% (-0.1%)

[Nanwe]

PP still ahead, words fail me.

PP is always going to be ahead. They're always going to get at the very least the support of a quarter of all Spaniards, the techo de Fraga, hard right people who are post-Francoists and would never dare to stop voting PP because they feel besieged by the left (so they must always vote, because it's left-wing people the ones who abstain) and because the PP is the only right-wing country in Spain. Doesn't matter if they agree that the PP is doing things right or not.

[Nanwe]

They could start by thinking about how they might tackle (or at least ameliorate) systemic social problems next time they're in power, rather than waste their time on useless gesture politics.

Hopefully. That's why I think the best possible Government would be a PSOE+IU Coalition 'a la andaluza'.

Not that I was planning on coming back to Spain for a while (for a long period of time, I mean) but that possibility really, really scares me. And I fear that IU is too complacent when in government with PSOE (see Andalucia) in particular to tackle political issues (excluding socio-economic, so it's political in a more concrete way).

I'd prefer some post-election chaos (no one being able to have an absolute majority nor a minority govt with nationalist support à la '93,'96,'04,'08) followed by a PP-PSOE grand coalition. This might be a huge disaster (so making way for a renewd political scene) or a good government as both parties have to act responsibly and both would check each other while finally ending the two-party system by not being able to use polarizing "no, you, no you" speeches which is 80-90% of electoral discourse. [Yes, I am a boring moderate hero ]

EDIT: I think it's going to be difficult to see the PSOE mover left quickly, except rhetoric-wise.The CIS showed something interesting, but well known since the 80s, the PSOE attracts people who identify in all political positions, they even have voters who identify as far-right, unlike the PP which barely has any voters beyond the most moderate centre-left (4 in a scale of 0 to 10). As a result, traditionally the PSOE has always pandered to the social liberal franquista sociologicamente (outdated expression, but you know what I mean?) urban middle class that is, eminently centrist (both in a modern and a UCD meaning) which basically means the PSOE can never shift too much to the left as they still need these voters to win.

IF they did shift considerably to the left, the PSOE would abandon its pretensions of being a big tent for all Spaniards, which, from my own personal understanding of democracy, would be a good thing by making the PSOE a representative exclusively of the centre-left. But that would reduce their voters share to 20-25% while leaving a huge space in the middle for liberal-centrist voters to adhere to the PP (à la '96 or '00) or the creation of a new centrist party in the middle (which I'm not altogether sure UPyD could fill, as it's more of a anti-nationalist centre-left party than an actual centrist party).

So, did my analysis make sense?

[Nanwe]

Isn't there a contradiction between "social liberal" and "sociologically Francoist"? I didn't understand that part very well. I agree partially on your appreciation on PSOE moving too leftwards. However, Spanish socialists are not trying to become in a carbon copy of our United Left, in any case they are making an attempt to recover some forgotten principles of reformist socialdemocracy.

I could have explained myself better but let's see. I don't think it's a contradiction. Franquismo sociologico is more a thing of the 80s, but overall among most people is a certain belief that Franco's time were economically good and there's no proper rejection of it but neither a great support of it, rather a certain ambivalence. This can still be perfectly compatible with a social liberal world view, although as the last generations that lived (and remember) Franco's time, so say anyone born before 1965-67 grow older, the compatibility of the two things will disappear.

I think I've reading so much stuff about the 80s Spain that I might be just projecting some stuff into today's politics.

Of course they won't become a IU, especially now that IU itself has left its moderate days under Llamazares to be once again led by the PCE. But the PSOE has always excelled at speaking red and then acting like a centrist. In 1986 and especially '89 (y dale con los 80), the party talked in terms of socializing the economy and expanding the welfare state and their economic policy, however was largely to cut down labour costs (not a bad thing, but just pointing out the divergence) and to drive down inflation though a tight fiscal policy.

The political conference is starting badly trying to avoid the debate on PSOE's federal proposal. As Antonio Elorza says in the article that I'll link below, it seems that socialists are proposing hundreds of inarticulate measures without analyzing the genesis of problems nor confronting reality. It's not that the other opposition parties (IU and UPyD) give the impression of being credible alternatives right now, they seem to be expecting to pick up some of the shipwreck remains.

Well, we all knew they'd try not to face the party-splitting problem, at least not so publicly.

About IU and UPyD, it's hard to be seen as an alternative when you are a minor party but at the same time, how can you ever prove that you are unless voters give them a chance? (Am I seriously defending voting for IU?, God)

As for UPyD, aside socially liberal stances, I'd say the party is drifting towards center right, but it's hard to know what's UPYD social agenda right now. Polls doesn't indicate that many disillusioned PP voters are joining Rosa Díez. Die hard conservatives may like confrontation with peripheral nationalism, but not other proposals, so they don't join UPyD. Perhaps those centrist voters which used to oscillate between PP and PSOE are not enthusiastically convinced by any political option. Besides, the middle class in Spain is diminishing with the crisis.  

I'd agree the party has been moving somewhat to the centre to attract unhappy moderate PP voters but I agree it's very hard to know.

Hardcore PP are in love with Ciutadans and their new project at a national level, Movimiento Ciudadano. I think it's because C's is seen as a more moderate version of UPyD and there are rumours that Rivera was back in uni a NNGG member. Link to MC's webpage: Movciudadano.

I forgot this. Celeste-Tell poll:

PP 31.8%; PSOE 28.2%; IU 13.3%; UPyD 7.9%; ERC 2.4%; CiU 2.3%; Amaiur 1.7%; Equo 1.7%; EAJ-PNV 1.4%; Ciutadans 1.4%; Compromís 1.2%.

Turnout (estimated) 55.1%.

http://www.celeste-tel.es/images/Barometroelectoralsocialnoviembre2013.pdf

Seems possible but I think expected turnout is too low. Also, I'd say PSOE is below 28% atm, not by much.