Spain General Discussion

[Niemeyerite]

Hi, compañeros!! Now I have some time to read this... I'll say something before I read (and then post my opinions):

-I'll be on the "political conference" of the PSOE. I'm excited to hear what they have to say, specially now that  two people I really like have supported it: that is, Pilar del Río and Baltasar Garzon. I met José Carrillo just a month ago, in the tribute of Gervasio Puerta, the president of th "Association of anti-franquist prisioners", who happened to be my neighbor, too. Carrillo was nice to me and he seemed very left-wing (some students of the Complutense University had told me he wasn't...). He has also supported the Conference. And Carme Chacón is going to be there, too. Even if PSOE has told the media they won't talk about Catalonia... I think they will (and I hope they do, people are begining to understand what Federalism means).

-The last Catalonian poll means that PSC has a lot of room to grow and that they can recover with a new team... Not that I don't like Pere Navarro, his problem is that Catalonians are not eager to give him a chance.

-I'm fully supporting Edu Madina now. I think he's the kind of guy the left needs to win back the Government. Very humble, very prepared, and loquacious. And a "hero" in the sense that he kept fighting after the attempt.

-I don't think Rubalcaba is going to be a candidate in the primaries... I've talked to same close allies of him and they feel the same way. Rumours are that Patxi López will be the establishment pick. I like Patxi too, but right now I'd vote for Madina (I've switched my 1st preference from Biden to Gillibrand, too , and from PT to PSOL hahaha...).

-Here in Madrid people I talk to (PSOE and IU members) are convinced Tomás Gómez will be the next President, with IU and with or without UPyD. In my town, San Sebastián de los Reyes, we've had a "Citizens Assembly" in which the 3 main parties of the opposition -PSOE, IU, Izquierda Independiente-, many citizens and some other organizations have started to create a common electoral programme for the elections of 2015. We are pioneers on this idea, I think it's a great one! Here you have the links

http://asambleaciudadanasanse.wordpress.com/

http://asambleasanse.foroactivo.com/

The Assembly of the 18 of October was followed by more than 200 people, and we have divided it on groups: Social, Politic and Economics, with some areas of work such as Education, Jobs, Health... I'm going to organize the Education section with a member of PCE-IU. The leader of UPyD in Sanse came to the last meeting (the "Politics" one). He said "we, the parties of the left...".

[Niemeyerite]

I don't feel confortable discussing Spanish politics... in English.

-About the CIS: LOL. The people who "cooked" the survey should go to "Master Chef".

-About Wert: well, apart from the fact he's a bad person (that's a fact) he should have resigned the other day. What an humillation for him, and what a pain for many Spanish students... You've said you don't think he's trying to dismantle our Education System, Nanwe. I hope I could agree with you, but he's the most ideology hack person I've seen in my life. I have suffered that dismantle you think doesn't exist, both in the High School and the University. Oh, come on, his new lae, that monstruosity called "LOMCE" will only bring tension and more tension until it gets revoked in 2015-2016. But the cuts he's already made, with the collaboration of our "consejera" of Education of Madrid, Lucía Figar... What a pain for the students, the teachers and the parents. Let me put an example: when I was in "2º de Bachillerato" (last year in the High School, very important considering that you have "Selectividad" to enter the University), my Economics teacher was hired the second week of October. My History and Geography (two subjects, same teacher) teacher only came the 3rd week of October. The year begins the 2nd week of september. Not only that, but the optional subject I chose was "Fundamentos de Administración". My teacher was going to be the same person who taught Economics, so until October I had no classes... But then, the "Consejería" decided that the High School couldn't afford the subject, so they decided to put me on "English extension". I was there until November, but I was told by then that we had to choose betwen "Psychology" and "French". Finally, in November, I chose French. And many cuts came as the year passed... In the University things, of course, didn't get better. We have to pay almost 2.000€ (THANK YOU, AGUIRRE) and this jerk, Wert, is making it very difficult for students whose parents don't have tons of money continue studying if they don't get more than a 6,5/10 (in my case, I have the money and good marks, but I have more than one, in fact more than 3 friends who can't afford going to University without the grant, and are looking for a job they are not going to find). And the situation in Communities where they talk yet another language, the situation is worse: just look what happened in Balears (this is more related to Bauzá than to Wert "it"self). When people tell me about "PPSOE" I always answer the same: just look, with ZP we had Ángel Gabilondo, with Rajoy we have José Ignacio Wert (Francisco Franco for those who believe in reincarnation).
And, are you seriously telling me that we are going to start segregating CHILDREN?
Even his brother is against his policies!!

http://www.eldiario.es/sociedad/ley-afecta-modelo-linguistico_0_79092567.html

http://sociedad.elpais.com/sociedad/2013/05/07/actualidad/1367927212_133455.html

-About the "externalization" (PRIVATIZATION) of hospitals. I know this well because I live in a town where we have one of these hospitals... The Infanta Sofía. Well, what mr. Lasquetty is doing here should be considered a crime. What an outrage!! He's sold our Hopsital to a company of Puerto Rico, HIMA San Pablo, which doesn't have the money they have requested them and they want to "attract Morrocan health tourism" in order to take advantadge of the Hospital.. Do you know we, citizens of the towns around Madrid, have a price? The Community of Madrid will pay these companies about 480€ per citizen... I had the opoortunity to talk to the Socialist member of the Madrid Assambly José Manuel Freire about this. Selling hospitals = Killing people. It may sound to exaggerated, but it isn't.

http://www.eldiario.es/sociedad/turismo-sanitario-expansion-HIMA-San-Pablo_0_166583469.html

http://psoesanse.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=218:el-psoe-de-sanse-tacha-de-indecente-el-silencio-del-alcalde-ante-los-planes-de-convertir-nuestro-hospital-en-un-hotel-sanitario-especializado-en-clientes-marroquies&catid=87&Itemid=577

-About people named Gervasio. The man was about 85 years old. I think he was the last Gervasio .

-About the Concordate: as soon as PP loses it's absolute majority, I think it's necessary to renegotiate it. When Rubalcaba wanted to "break it" we had a different situation with a very different Pope. I, as an atheist and progressive person, think we need to break it now (Wert is using it to put Religion EVERYWHERE, in fact), bu I think Pope Francis is reasonable enough we can improve our relationships with the Church. Wasn't him the one who said we need a secular State? Rubalcaba is just trying to get back some left-wingers like me. I don't think that's the right path (what he has to do is to go as soon as possible), but certainly it helps with the Socialist base.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't feel comfortable discussing Spanish politics... in English.

The same happens to me when I need to explain something concerning Latin America but: "Adonde fueres, haz lo que vieres"; y hablar en otro idioma en un foro donde todos utilizan el inglés sería de muy mal gusto y de muy mala leche, además de levantar suspicacias.

Es cierto que sería levantar sospechas. Creo que todos somos sospechosos cuando t_host1 escribe en algo que no sea Inglés.

Levantaría sospechas (más que suspicacias, eso siempre que escribe un no-estadounidense jajaja), seguro. Obama tendría el ojo puesto en esta discusión si continuáramos escribiendo en castellano...

BTW, I really don't think PP is going to win the next GE. PSOE will recover after this "Political Conference" for sure. We will know when the primaries will be held in December (and only 10,000 signatures will be needed to run, not 20,000 (10% of the militancy)!!
And I'll have the oportunity to meet Edu Madina next month, too, he's coming to my town to talk about "democracy". Do you want me to ask him anything??

[Niemeyerite]

The PP is probably the most corrupt and evil political party in Europe right now.

This is a hyperbole, isn't it? We have plenty of evil right-wing parties in Europe and corruption scandals in other countries.

I really don't think PP is going to win the next GE. PSOE will recover after this "Political Conference" for sure.

I don't want to cool your enthusiasm, but the Socialists have a long way to go and not all the signs from the political conference are positive.

I am not saying this Conference will solve things within the PSOE. What I think is that people are ready to vote PSOE... With primaries probably happening in a year and fresh faces and ideas, I think we can get to 33-35% again, and that can be enough to win. And I believe IU will start bleeding, the party is such a mess right now. They'll have a hard time explaining why they don't want primaries. And, finally, I'm almost sure we'll have a Basque candidate: one who defeated the "devil" Ibarretxe and the other one is an ETA victim. I think the 2nd helps more, but the first is quite a achievement, too!

[Niemeyerite]

They could start by thinking about how they might tackle (or at least ameliorate) systemic social problems next time they're in power, rather than waste their time on useless gesture politics.

Hopefully. That's why I think the best possible Government would be a PSOE+IU Coalition 'a la andaluza'.

[Niemeyerite]

I read about Valenciano and Cañete in El País, but what I've been told by a friend who works for elplural.com is that Juan Fernando López Aguilar is the most likely number 1 in the list (again and even after having endorsed Chacón in 2012) and that Rajoy has offered Mayor Oreja the 1st place yet again, to keep the fascist vote inside the PP. Ana Mato and Cañete will probably be on the European Parliament, too.

[Niemeyerite]

Do you think there's much chance of IU getting close to their current poll ratings in an actual election?

If you want my opinion, no. At least not in the European elections... I've been told (by another friend, actually) that some people (some very famous people, who enjoy appearing on TV one day and the following) to the left of IU will run for the EU elections. That may kill IU there, but I'm not so sure they'll do it... The person who's told me this is of course a member of IU, and he says he'd vote for the others I may give names sooner or later.

All is hanging in the air, then. My impression is that López Aguilar might be convenient candidate, because he's rather popular and even somewhat charismatic. Besides, many people in PSOE might be thinking that he's better in exile. Not to mention the PSOE's current leadership in the Canaries; the further he is, the better for them

I'm not sure if placing a hardliner like Mayor Oreja on the top is a good idea. Arias Cañete is much less controversial and he's an expert on EU issues. Did your contact give you more inputs? I live too far from Madrid

On Saturday we'll know when the primaries will happen, not even Tomás Gómez (who was in my town today, and I had the opportunity to talk to him: http://www.telemadrid.es/noticias/madrid/noticia/gomez-denuncia-la-injusta-subida-de-impuestos-en-san-sebastian-de-los-reyes I'm the guy wearing glasses behind him) knows, but most people seem to think they'll take place by November.

I agree with you on López Aguilar, some people may want him in Brussels, there he ain't be 'dangerous'. But hey, maybe if he wins by +5 points (unlikely, I know) the media will begin talking about him as a potential candidate... And I have the feeling that he actually wouldn't mind running (quite the opposite), what do you think, Dani?

Arias Cañete clearly wants to be something in the EU Commission, but maybe Rajoy wants him to run in Andalusia or to have him remain Minister, as he's one of the least-unpopular, and Rajoy needs some ministers to burn after having burnt Gallardón But I trust my contact and he thinks Mayor Oreja is Rajoy's choice right now. I, like you, believe putting a hard-liner (I have no problems calling him a fascist, lepenist or whatever they call them now) will backfire just as I think the Abortion Law did. Not only because the far-right will vote PP no matter what if there isn't a viable choice from the right, but because PP needs the centre to win again.

Now that I mention "an option from the right". This same person has told me that Santiago Abascal will create a new party and right know he's 50-50 about running for the EU elections, with him or Ortega Lara leading the pack.

So, this could be the scenario:

-Fascists: "La España en Marcha": Falange, DN, AN, and other Golden Down-llike parties. Will run.

-PxC and some other parties supposedly supported by LePen: are running, but I don't know about the impact they'll have. In a conversation with Esteban Ibarra (president of "Movimiento contra la Intolerancia") he told me these ones are the ones he fears the most, and that in his opinion they have a chance to get 1 deputy in the EU Parliament if LePen comes here to officially endorse them.

-Santiago Abascal, Ortega Lara and maybe Vidal-Quadras joke-ultraconservative party.

-PP

-UPyD

-Movimiento Ciudadano

-Centre-right nationalists: PNV, CiU...

-PSOE

-Left nationalists: ERC, Bildu...

-IU

-Joint list of communists, famous personalities and others

And the surprise candidate could be Miguel Ángel Revilla (that's just my opinion, no inputs). I've seen him too much on TV (and not only to talk about his books or the economy), I think he wants to measure his support around Spain, even if he's said 14546656 times that he'll never run for President.

If at least 2/3 of the new parties I've mentioned decide to run, we'll have a very interesting (and frightening) election in May.

[Niemeyerite]

Santiago Abascal, Ortega Lara, a Suárez minister and others have announced today the creation of a new party to the right of the PP, Alejo Vidal-Quadras may eventually join it. So what I said yesterday was, at least, partially true:

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2014/01/14/52d51fd5268e3eaa318b4576.html

I think those guys could actually get a respectable % of the vote. Ortega Lara is like God for some "PPeros". It will certainly hurt Populars, and it could be what the PSOE needs to beat them in the EU Elections

López Aguilar endorsed Chacón and they're still good friends. He'll come to Sanse next month, do you want to me to make any specific question to him? I don't think he will run, mainly because it's all about name rec right now (I think that's why Chacón is leading by +10 points over Patxi López, Diaz and Madina in the last 2 polls)... but after a good result in May, his name rec may grow quite a bit. Even then, I don't think he has the support (outside of Canarias) to win and he may know it.

To be honest, I don't see how Chacón DOESN'T take it. She will have the support of PSC, about half of the Juventudes Socialistas and the PSPV, and maybe the support of the PSOE-Andalucía, not to say that López Aguilar probably won't run and endorse her. I will be voting for Madina (although this can change) and Tomás Gómez, ironically, seems to like Patxi López (the establishment favourite, those people Tomás Gómez fights against).

[Niemeyerite]

You heard it here first. I didn't want to give names because it was something a friend told me privately... But today it's news. Yesterday I was talking about Pablo Iglesias (without mentioning him), who wants to lead an "anti-cuts" list for the EU elections:

http://ecodiario.eleconomista.es/interstitial/volver/nuezene14/politica/noticias/5456691/01/14/Pablo-Iglesias-da-el-salto-a-la-politica-encabezara-una-lista-para-las-europeas.html

I'll tell you one more thing. There will be members of IU supporting them. Pablo Iglesias had been offered to be the number 8 in the IU list and he rejected. Some IU people are upset the candidate will be Willy Meyer yet again. Expect some to leave the coalition and join Monedero and Iglesias in their new adventure (JC Monedero is Hugo Chavez fanboy in Spain, very popular among the hard-left electorate).

Abascal Party (the new AP LoL) hurts PP + Pablo Iglesias Party (PIP) hurts IU + Movimiento Ciudadano (or Rivera Party) hurts PP and UPyD = PSOE is the big winner, or at least the less affected by these new parties.

My prediction for the EU elections would be (if things develop as I expect them to):

PSOE 30%
PP 28%
IU 9%
UPyD 6%
MC 4%
PIP 4%
CiUPNVetc 4%
ERCBilduetc 4%
AP 4%
Equoetc 2%
PxL 1%
España en marcha 1%
Others 3%

I forgot to mention this, but don't rule out a MC-Abascal coalition.

So, we'd have:

-Fascists (PxL, EeM): 2% (one could argue that Abascal and even some PP should be included here)
-Right 32% (PP and AP)
-Centre-to-centre-right: 14% (UPyD, MC and PNVCiU, even if they hate each other and shouldn't be included in the same category)

-Centre-left: 32% (PSOE and Equo)
-Left: 17% (IU, PIP, ERCBildu)

Just wishful thinking.