Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[Tender Branson]

66K early votes have been cast. The split is 42R/39D/19I which is similar to the overall registration.

Smith says this is good news for Sink since Pubs usually have a sizeable early vote lead.

Yeah, those numbers look encouraging:

In 2012, 7% more Republicans than Democrats turned out - but Obama won the district.

[Vega]

I think she will win; but loose the General Election...

[Hifly]

I think she will win; but loose the General Election...

That would be bizarre.

[windjammer]

Well, I still believe she will lose, I don't know, I'm probably wrong, but this is what I fair.

[Vega]

Well, I still believe she will lose, I don't know, I'm probably wrong, but this is what I fair.

Hardly, in fact, it happens alot.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think she will win; but loose the General Election...

You mean win this election, than lose the one in November?

[Miles]

Pinellas Commissioner Susan Latvala (R) endorses Sink.

[Lief 🗽]

66K early votes have been cast. The split is 42R/39D/19I which is similar to the overall registration.

Smith says this is good news for Sink since Pubs usually have a sizeable early vote lead.

Yeah, those numbers look encouraging:

In 2012, 7% more Republicans than Democrats turned out - but Obama won the district.

Since then, the numbers have gotten worse for Jolly. Republicans lead Democrats in absentees only 42-40 now: http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/republican-lead-in-absentee-ballots-too-slim-to-comfort-jolly/2166900

[DrScholl]

Someone's been doing some very extensive opposition research.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-killed-a-man/2167218

[DINGO Joe]

Someone's been doing some very extensive opposition research.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-killed-a-man/2167218

Makes the related article from a month ago  "David Jolly killing GOP rivals in air war" somewhat awkward now.

A morbid question, according to the article, the victim was thrown 147 ft, that's 50 yards.  That seems incredible, maybe he was dragged that far?

[publicunofficial]

I hope Sink wins, but I also hope no one votes against Jolly because of something like this.

[Deus Naturae]

Jolly speaks about the incident.

[Miles]

Yeah, sad about the accident but it shouldn't be held against him now.

[DINGO Joe]

The mail ballot vote has now gone past 87,000, probably on track for about 120,000.  The partisan breakdown has narrowed slightly from when it was 66,000 and the margin was just over 2.5%

R-- 41.71
D-  39.56
O- 18.74

In the Republican primary 36,000 votes were cast early and only 10,000 on election day (though the weather was quite poor), I'd expect vote day turnout to be between 40,000 and 60,000 though that's just an educated guess.  Pinellas is the most reliant on vote by mail of any Florida county and it's steadily increased each election cycle.

In the other recent special elections  MA-5 had 80,000 in the primary and 61,000 in the general (bad weather and not competitive in the general) and LA-5 had 103,000 in the open primary and 91,000 in the runoff (the runoff was competitive but between two Rs)

Obviously this special election will exceed both of those in terms of turnout and may exceed both of those combined in votes.

[Meeker]

Total spending has topped $8.2 million. And there's still nine days to go.

I think Sink will end up winning narrowly, somewhere in the range of 2 or 3 points. She won't be able to take much of a breather though; the November election will be a toss-up if the Republicans get a better candidate than Jolly.

[Vega]

Total spending has topped $8.2 million. And there's still nine days to go.

I think Sink will end up winning narrowly, somewhere in the range of 2 or 3 points. She won't be able to take much of a breather though; the November election will be a toss-up if the Republicans get a better candidate than Jolly.

I'm fairly sure that Sink will loose the General.

[publicunofficial]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

[Vega]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

Now, now. No need for name calling.

The reason why I say that, is that it's a seat with Republican DNA. Since turnout will be higher, as you noted, it will bring out more Republicans possibly.

[publicunofficial]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

Now, now. No need for name calling.

The reason why I say that, is that it's a seat with Republican DNA. Since turnout will be higher, as you noted, it will bring out more Republicans possibly.

What? Just because Bill Young held it for years doesn't mean it's genetically Republican. And the Republican base in FL-13 is mostly retirees and other old white people, people who are already turning out pretty highly. Higher turnout would bring out minorities, younger people, people who only care about the Governor's race, ect.

I've never heard of higher turnout HURTING Democratic chances, and I don't think this'll be the first case of it. If Sink loses FL-13, it'll be next week, not next November.

[Meeker]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

Jolly is a deeply flawed candidate - Sink's entire campaign against him has been based on his lobbying career. The ads have written themselves.

[publicunofficial]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

Jolly is a deeply flawed candidate - Sink's entire campaign against him has been based on his lobbying career. The ads have written themselves.

True, but attack ads aren't exactly hard to make. If the November nominee is Kathleen Peters or some other legislator, they'll be attacked on their voting record. If it's Bev Young, they can point out that she is super nuts.

Bill Young Jr. might be a solid pick, but he doesn't seem the like political type.

[Vega]

Bill Young Jr. might be a solid pick, but he doesn't seem the like political type.

Nope.

[publicunofficial]

Bill Young Jr. might be a solid pick, but he doesn't seem the like political type.

Nope.

He could be persuaded to run if Sink wins. He might've said no because he didn't want to get in Jolly's way. He is a family friend after all.

[Vega]

Bill Young Jr. might be a solid pick, but he doesn't seem the like political type.

Nope.

He could be persuaded to run if Sink wins. He might've said no because he didn't want to get in Jolly's way. He is a family friend after all.

He's a little young in my opinion; not that it's stopped anyone though.

[Donerail]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

Jolly is a deeply flawed candidate - Sink's entire campaign against him has been based on his lobbying career. The ads have written themselves.

True, but attack ads aren't exactly hard to make. If the November nominee is Kathleen Peters or some other legislator, they'll be attacked on their voting record. If it's Bev Young, they can point out that she is super nuts.

Bill Young Jr. might be a solid pick, but he doesn't seem the like political type.

Yeah, Jolly's not that bad a pick - not who I would've gone with initially, but he's not the worst the Pinellas GOP could've put up. A good baseline for 'Generic R', at least.

Pretty sure Billy Jr.'s going to try to run for State House. Might be wrong on that, but that's what I'm hearing.