Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[LeBron]

Not only is it the gerrymander, but it's also these damn outside groups that flood tons of money and anti-Obamacare ads into the district. Even if Sink is a failure of a candidate, the Dems still outraised Republicans here and we could have won this seat if Sink would have gotten out of the way and just led Ehrlich run again, but no, her ego was too big. I can't believe we wasted this much on this race only to lose, so you know what, hopefully this is a sign that we can't have Sink screwing it up for a 3rd time in 2016 against Rubio. We need someone like DWS or Deutch.

And all 225 precincts are now reporting:
David Jolly (R) - 48.43% (88,294)
Alex Sink (D) - 46.56% (84,877)
Lucas Overby (L) - 4.83% (8,799)
Write-Ins (Michael Svenson) - 0.18% (325)

Making it official, Jolly holds the seats for Republicans making the balance of power the same in the U.S. House of Representatives - 234 Republicans and 201 Democrats. I can't believe Barker actually supported this guy given Jolly's hate against the ACA and social security. Floridians really just let our party down tonight and with this, I'm really questioning the optimism in FL-2 now and how much money or faith we should put into Graham.

[Badger]

In fairness to Sink, turnout benefits Dems and special elections in a swing district are rarely a good thing for them.

That said, she was certainly unimpressive here.

That's why you have a campaign, to shape the turnout...

You make it sound like turnout is an easily malable lump of clay to be "shaped" as the candidate wishes. Special elections make that rather difficult.

[DrScholl]

Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.

Yes, it may have been a small factor, but you lost because you nominated a horrible nominee.  You threw one away.  Should have had Rick Kriseman run instead of mayor.  You would have a house seat then.

Nope, gerrymandering one the seat for Republicans. There is no way any Democrat was going to win this seat in a special elections. Republicans knew what they were doing when they drew this district.
No, you won because the legislature cut out black voters and used water continuity to pack them. You really think Jolly would have won if the whole of St. Pete was in the district?

I know it was a factor, but not the main one.  You still, even with the gerrymander should have won the seat.  Jolly is a bad candidate, but Sink is worse.

I completely disagree.  This was a winnable seat, especially with the candidate we ran.  It comes down to who you nominated.  She grabbed defeat out of the jaws of Victory.

It wasn't going to flip, period. Democrats can't win these sort of seats in low turnout special elections, not without other factors at play.

Wrong again.  Obama won this district.  There were many better candidates on both sides.  You just nominated the wrong one.  Stop making excuses for it, she sucks, and I hope the FL Democratic party does not make the same mistake and nominate her for anything. 

The district voted as it was drawn to vote, it's as simple as that. The Republican legislature knew what it was doing when it drew this district. Obama may have won it, but that was with higher turnout.

The district was drawn for Bill Young, yes, but it is trending democratic fast.  It should have been a pickup for you guys, even in a low turnout election.  You could have, and should have won.  It is Sinks fault you didn't, simple as that.

Bill Young was a Republican and at his age, the legislature couldn't have expected him to be there that much longer, so it was drawn with a Republican advantage period. Young might have won it un-gerrymandered, but that's something we'll never know.

Yes, we will never know.  Can I ask, why are you making excuses for Sink?  It is her fault.  Rick Kriseman would have easily won this district against jolly.

The district was drawn for Bill Young, yes, but it is trending democratic fast.  It should have been a pickup for you guys, even in a low turnout election.  You could have, and should have won.  It is Sinks fault you didn't, simple as that.

Someone at RRH said that this seat would be more Democratic with a fair map, but others, like Murphy's, would get more Republican.

True.  But, I think the map could have been much worse if the redistrict amendment had not passed. 

I'm not making excuses, I'm pointing out the makeup of the district. Even Charlie Crist probably wouldn't have won that seat in a special election.

[Joshgreen]

In fairness to Sink, turnout benefits Dems and special elections in a swing district are rarely a good thing for them.

That said, she was certainly unimpressive here.

That's why you have a campaign, to shape the turnout...

You make it sound like turnout is an easily malable lump of clay to be "shaped" as the candidate wishes. Special elections make that rather difficult.

When you have a good ground game, you make the turnout what you want it to be. Aren't the Dems supposed to be the pros at targeting, well they dropped the ball on this one. In the end though, the blame falls on the candidate.

[publicunofficial]

Between Democratic boo-hooing and Republican taunting, I'm probably going to take a break from the forum for the next week.


All I'm going to say is that I hope the DCCC is calling up names not named Alex Sink.

[JerryArkansas]

Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.

Yes, it may have been a small factor, but you lost because you nominated a horrible nominee.  You threw one away.  Should have had Rick Kriseman run instead of mayor.  You would have a house seat then.

Nope, gerrymandering one the seat for Republicans. There is no way any Democrat was going to win this seat in a special elections. Republicans knew what they were doing when they drew this district.
No, you won because the legislature cut out black voters and used water continuity to pack them. You really think Jolly would have won if the whole of St. Pete was in the district?

I know it was a factor, but not the main one.  You still, even with the gerrymander should have won the seat.  Jolly is a bad candidate, but Sink is worse.

I completely disagree.  This was a winnable seat, especially with the candidate we ran.  It comes down to who you nominated.  She grabbed defeat out of the jaws of Victory.

It wasn't going to flip, period. Democrats can't win these sort of seats in low turnout special elections, not without other factors at play.

Wrong again.  Obama won this district.  There were many better candidates on both sides.  You just nominated the wrong one.  Stop making excuses for it, she sucks, and I hope the FL Democratic party does not make the same mistake and nominate her for anything. 

The district voted as it was drawn to vote, it's as simple as that. The Republican legislature knew what it was doing when it drew this district. Obama may have won it, but that was with higher turnout.

The district was drawn for Bill Young, yes, but it is trending democratic fast.  It should have been a pickup for you guys, even in a low turnout election.  You could have, and should have won.  It is Sinks fault you didn't, simple as that.

Bill Young was a Republican and at his age, the legislature couldn't have expected him to be there that much longer, so it was drawn with a Republican advantage period. Young might have won it un-gerrymandered, but that's something we'll never know.

Yes, we will never know.  Can I ask, why are you making excuses for Sink?  It is her fault.  Rick Kriseman would have easily won this district against jolly.

The district was drawn for Bill Young, yes, but it is trending democratic fast.  It should have been a pickup for you guys, even in a low turnout election.  You could have, and should have won.  It is Sinks fault you didn't, simple as that.

Someone at RRH said that this seat would be more Democratic with a fair map, but others, like Murphy's, would get more Republican.

True.  But, I think the map could have been much worse if the redistrict amendment had not passed. 

I'm not making excuses, I'm pointing out the makeup of the district. Even Charlie Crist probably wouldn't have won that seat in a special election.

Charlie Crist would not have won, but for different reason than it was a special election.  She lost it, not the district makeup.  It was a winnable race, simple as that.

[IceSpear]

No shock really. Many Democrats think the presidency is the only office that matters and vote (or not vote) accordingly. I thought the Dem advantage in cash and name recognition would be enough to counter that in this specific race, but apparently not. Dems are in big trouble for 2014 unless we can get our voters to turn out.

Side note, Alex Sink has to be the biggest paper tiger in FL politics.

[RogueBeaver]

Sink is conceding, but says she isn't sure what the future holds. Crowd shouting NOVEMBER.

[JerryArkansas]

Between Democratic boo-hooing and Republican taunting, I'm probably going to take a break from the forum for the next week.


All I'm going to say is that I hope the DCCC is calling up names not named Alex Sink.

Agreed, it is pissing me off that people are boo-hooing over the district.  I hope krazen doesn't post here also. 

[Joshgreen]

Sink is conceding, but says she isn't sure what the future holds. Crowd shouting NOVEMBER.

Sink should focus on being a granny, not on playing in a game that's clearly out of her league.

[Miles]

Democrats need to make this seat a priority in November, with Sink or otherwise. Jolly won't be entrenched and Crist will carry the district.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

We need someone like DWS or Deutch.

Please, please, please run DWS. Rubio would win a landslide.

[JerryArkansas]

Democrats need to make this seat a priority in November, with Sink or otherwise. Jolly won't be entrenched and Crist will carry the district.

They need to, this district part of their path to a house majority.

[Joshgreen]

Democrats need to make this seat a priority in November, with Sink or otherwise. Jolly won't be entrenched and Crist will carry the district.

No, Sink needs to be run out of the state.

[Badger]

In fairness to Sink, turnout benefits Dems and special elections in a swing district are rarely a good thing for them.

That said, she was certainly unimpressive here.

That's why you have a campaign, to shape the turnout...

You make it sound like turnout is an easily malable lump of clay to be "shaped" as the candidate wishes. Special elections make that rather difficult.

When you have a good ground game, you make the turnout what you want it to be. Aren't the Dems supposed to be the pros at targeting, well they dropped the ball on this one. In the end though, the blame falls on the candidate.

Srsly?

[DrScholl]

You can't force people to vote, so turnout isn't what you make it. A lot of people who vote in presidential elections simply aren't plugged into any other elections in off-years.

[Joshgreen]

In fairness to Sink, turnout benefits Dems and special elections in a swing district are rarely a good thing for them.

That said, she was certainly unimpressive here.

That's why you have a campaign, to shape the turnout...

You make it sound like turnout is an easily malable lump of clay to be "shaped" as the candidate wishes. Special elections make that rather difficult.

When you have a good ground game, you make the turnout what you want it to be. Aren't the Dems supposed to be the pros at targeting, well they dropped the ball on this one. In the end though, the blame falls on the candidate.

Srsly?

That's what the Obamans did in both '08 and '12, is it asking too much for a candidate outraising her opponent 2-1 to do the same in a single US county?

[Joshgreen]

You can't force people to vote, so turnout isn't what you make it. A lot of people who vote in presidential elections simply aren't plugged into any other elections in off-years.

Strawman. People will vote if you give them the proper incentives...free rides, absentee pickup, etc

[RedSLC]

Between Democratic boo-hooing and Republican taunting, I'm probably going to take a break from the forum for the next week.


All I'm going to say is that I hope the DCCC is calling up names not named Alex Sink.

Agreed, it is pissing me off that people are boo-hooing over the district.  I hope krazen doesn't post here also. 

I didn't mean to piss you off with my own comment, but I needed to say it to get out the disappointment. Fortunately, it looks like it was all I needed to say.

I can understand why would piss you off, though. I've already had to put a certain couple of posters on ignore because of their excessive boo-hooing clogging up the thread.

[Miles]

I'm working on a Sink vs. Obama map. On average, she ran 2.5% behind him in each precinct.

[IceSpear]

You can't force people to vote, so turnout isn't what you make it. A lot of people who vote in presidential elections simply aren't plugged into any other elections in off-years.

I wonder if we could be in a period where the country continually oscillates between Republican wins in midterms/off years and Democratic wins in presidentials, simply due to turnout differences. It would be hell for people who want a functional government though. Our politics are already WAY too based on the time someone runs as opposed to who the candidates actually are.

[JerryArkansas]

Between Democratic boo-hooing and Republican taunting, I'm probably going to take a break from the forum for the next week.


All I'm going to say is that I hope the DCCC is calling up names not named Alex Sink.

Agreed, it is pissing me off that people are boo-hooing over the district.  I hope krazen doesn't post here also. 

I didn't mean to piss you off with my own comment, but I needed to say it to get out the disappointment. Fortunately, it looks like it was all I needed to say.

I can understand why would piss you off, though. I've already had to put a certain couple of posters on ignore because of their excessive boo-hooing clogging up the thread.

It is really not making one post boo-hooing, it is continuing on and on about it, and then making excuses for the defeat.

[Maxwell]

If you think what I or any Republican currently in the thread is doing is considered "taunting", then get some thicker skin, please.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't blame Sink nor gerrymandering for this. It's the anti-Obamacare ads that cost democrats this seat. But if that's the price, I think dems. should pay it and keep Obamacare going on without changes. It should be more popular by november and with or without Sink, we can flip this seat and many others if we also start talking about Obamacare and not letting republicans and outside groups being the only ones talking about it.

I want to know Flo's opinion about this loss, as Sink was the person who "brought him to the political World".

[free my dawg]

Alright. Now that I made some thoughts, I'd like to comment to more at length on the disaster known as the FL-13 race. The Florida Democratic Party needs to be razed from the ground up. Keep Murphy, Nelson, and MAYBE Gwen Graham. After tonight, the rest can get the f**k out for COMPLETE AND UTTER INCOMPETENCE.

So, a rare swing district in Florida (IIRC 6 out of 27 districts, one of them being held down by a longtime moderate incumbent) opens up after the second longtime moderate incumbent dies. Republicans were essentially set to nominate David Jolly, a DC lobbyist, legal counselor to Bill Young, and vehicular killer with little ties to the district. Normal logic would say to run a good candidate who represents the Tampa Bay area and spends their time there, like a county commissioner or an attorney who made a surprise run at the seat last cycle.

But Florida Democrats follow a different type of logic. Florida Democrats' logic would be that running a lazy, failed candidate who lost to a slimy criminal and doesn't even live in the district would result in a pickup, and pouring obscene amounts of money into the race would flip this seat into her hands. Naturally, Alex Sink decided that spending all of her money on ads and having about as much presence in her suddenly-new home as she did while Bill Young was a better way to spend her resources, and to attack Jolly on the issues instead of the fact that he's essentially Washington, DC personified. Instead of being principled, she did her best Tea Party impression when it came to immigration,  So thirty minutes ago, I watched the worst-case scenario unfold: Florida Democrats, one again, screwed the pooch.

Same thing with Rick Scott: normal logic would say to run a clean, honest candidate against a shady businessman who treats the state second to his old business this November to ensure a win, like one of the many Democratic mayors. Florida Democrat logic would be to run an ex-Republican who only turned Democratic to win back the office that he left in his last failed run. Now, my fears are starting to cook up again: same sh**t happens again, Crist loses to Scott, and Florida continues down the road of becoming the Hospital Corporation of America's business subsidary.

Yes, the district was a little gerrymandered. Yes, it was a special election. But this district was also an Obama 2012, D-trending district where the last candidate broke 40% against a man who spent half of his entire life serving the district that loved him. When he died, this seat had a very good chance to go Democratic, especially against Jolly. Then, Alex Sink came along and once again, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Florida Democrats should be ashamed.