Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[IceSpear]

I don't blame Sink nor gerrymandering for this. It's the anti-Obamacare ads that cost democrats this seat. But if that's the price, I think dems. should pay it and keep Obamacare going on without changes. It should be more popular by november and with or without Sink, we can flip this seat and many others if we also start talking about Obamacare and not letting republicans and outside groups being the only ones talking about it.

I want to know Flo's opinion about this loss, as Sink was the person who "brought him to the political World".

The party as a whole seems to be resting on their laurels as Dem senators are getting assaulted by millions of dollars in Koch funded ads. Hopefully this will wake them up.

[Joshgreen]

Alright. Now that I made some thoughts, I'd like to comment to more at length on the disaster known as the FL-13 race. The Florida Democratic Party needs to be razed from the ground up. Keep Murphy, Nelson, and MAYBE Gwen Graham. After tonight, the rest can get the  out for COMPLETE AND UTTER ING INCOMPETENCE.

So, a rare swing district in Florida (IIRC 6 out of 27 districts, one of them being held down by a longtime moderate incumbent) opens up after the second longtime moderate incumbent dies. Republicans were essentially set to nominate David Jolly, a DC lobbyist, legal counselor to Bill Young, and vehicular killer with little ties to the district. Normal logic would say to run a good candidate who represents the Tampa Bay area and spends their time there, like a county commissioner or an attorney who made a surprise run at the seat last cycle.

But Florida Democrats follow a different type of logic. Florida Democrats' logic would be that running a lazy, failed candidate who lost to a slimy criminal and doesn't even live in the district would result in a pickup, and pouring obscene amounts of money into the race would flip this seat into her hands. Naturally, Alex Sink decided that spending all of her money on ads and having about as much presence in her suddenly-new home as she did while Bill Young was a better way to spend her resources, and to attack Jolly on the issues instead of the fact that he's essentially Washington, DC personified. Instead of being principled, she did her best Tea Party impression when it came to immigration,  So thirty minutes ago, I watched the worst-case scenario unfold: Florida Democrats, one again, screwed the pooch.

Same thing with Rick Scott: normal logic would say to run a clean, honest candidate against a shady businessman who treats the state second to his old business this November to ensure a win, like one of the many Democratic mayors. Florida Democrat logic would be to run an ex-Republican who only turned Democratic to win back the office that he left in his last failed run. Now, my fears are starting to cook up again: same sh**t happens again, Crist loses to Scott, and Florida continues down the road of becoming the Hospital Corporation of America's business subsidary.

Yes, the district was a little gerrymandered. Yes, it was a special election. But this district was also an Obama 2012, D-trending district where the last candidate broke 40% against a man who spent half of his entire life serving the district that loved him. When he died, this seat had a very good chance to go Democratic, especially against Jolly. Then, Alex Sink came along and once again, snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Florida Democrats should be ashamed.

Agree completely. One would think that the local schmucks would learn after getting their ass handed back to them time after time.

[SWE]

Alright. Now that I made some thoughts, I'd like to comment to more at length on the disaster known as the FL-13 race. The Florida Democratic Party needs to be razed from the ground up. Keep Murphy, Nelson, and MAYBE Gwen Graham. After tonight, the rest can get the f**k out for COMPLETE AND UTTER INCOMPETENCE.

So, a rare swing district in Florida (IIRC 6 out of 27 districts, one of them being held down by a longtime moderate incumbent) opens up after the second longtime moderate incumbent dies. Republicans were essentially set to nominate David Jolly, a DC lobbyist, legal counselor to Bill Young, and vehicular killer with little ties to the district. Normal logic would say to run a good candidate who represents the Tampa Bay area and spends their time there, like a county commissioner or an attorney who made a surprise run at the seat last cycle.

But Florida Democrats follow a different type of logic. Florida Democrats' logic would be that running a lazy, failed candidate who lost to a slimy criminal and doesn't even live in the district would result in a pickup, and pouring obscene amounts of money into the race would flip this seat into her hands. Naturally, Alex Sink decided that spending all of her money on ads and having about as much presence in her suddenly-new home as she did while Bill Young was a better way to spend her resources, and to attack Jolly on the issues instead of the fact that he's essentially Washington, DC personified. Instead of being principled, she did her best Tea Party impression when it came to immigration,  So thirty minutes ago, I watched the worst-case scenario unfold: Florida Democrats, one again, screwed the pooch.

Same thing with Rick Scott: normal logic would say to run a clean, honest candidate against a shady businessman who treats the state second to his old business this November to ensure a win, like one of the many Democratic mayors. Florida Democrat logic would be to run an ex-Republican who only turned Democratic to win back the office that he left in his last failed run. Now, my fears are starting to cook up again: same sh**t happens again, Crist loses to Scott, and Florida continues down the road of becoming the Hospital Corporation of America's business subsidary.

Yes, the district was a little gerrymandered. Yes, it was a special election. But this district was also an Obama 2012, D-trending district where the last candidate broke 40% against a man who spent half of his entire life serving the district that loved him. When he died, this seat had a very good chance to go Democratic, especially against Jolly. Then, Alex Sink came along and once again, snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Florida Democrats should be ashamed.

I think you mean defeat from the jaws of victory

[Dave from Michigan]

So Sink was an awful candidate and only lost by 2%? With a decent candidate and better turnout could it go Democrat in Nov.

[free my dawg]

Then, Alex Sink came along and once again, snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Florida Democrats should be ashamed.

I think you mean defeat from the jaws of victory

Good catch. I'm kind of in the middle of ranting/raging/even saging right now.

[IceSpear]

Despite Sink clearly being a paper tiger, I think Dems here are just using her as a scapegoat. No Democrat would've beaten Scott in 2010, and I doubt any Democrat would've beaten Jolly tonight. However, if this election was on November 6, 2012 Sink would've won, probably by a comfortable margin. Same with the governor's race.

The real problem is that our voters stay home unless a president is on the ballot, along with gerrymandering. Treat the causes, not the symptom. Unfortunately, neither can be fixed easily.

[Meeker]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

[Dave from Michigan]

Democrats need to focus on turnout this November. Spend whatever you have to to get out the vote. Also defend obamacare get some people who the law has helped real stories not fake lying ones like the republicans.

[RogueBeaver]

Wasserman: results suggest House Pubs on track for November gains, perhaps in 5-15 seat range.

[IceSpear]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

[Badger]

You can't force people to vote, so turnout isn't what you make it. A lot of people who vote in presidential elections simply aren't plugged into any other elections in off-years.

Strawman. People will vote if you give them the proper incentives...free rides, absentee pickup, etc

Do you really think Sink's campaign didn't use these tools?

[Suburbia]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

You're definitely right. Low turnout causes these problems. Most people just don't know what's going on in these special elections.

[RogueBeaver]

So does Sink join Coakley in your Hall of Infamy, Dems?

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

[IceSpear]

So does Sink join Coakley in your Hall of Infamy, Dems?

I don't think so. In that race, it truly was Coakley's fault almost completely. She was caught napping and thought it was beneath her dignity to campaign. Although the environment would've helped Brown regardless, without the utter disaster that was Coakley, I doubt he ever would've caught as much traction as he did.

As for Sink, while she's clearly not anywhere near as strong of a candidate as was thought back when she was constantly talked up in 2007-2009, I don't see her as a particularly weak candidate either. She was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. Twice.

[IceSpear]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

[Miles]

[Meeker]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

[Torie]

Nobody but me thinks relative candidate quality and resume, plus infinite amounts of money, (considerably more than Jolly or so I have read),  gave Sink a few points (maybe 3%-5%, and what sunk her was the national environment? Sink to me had reputation, name recognition, and was a good ideological fit for the district as a moderate Dem. (Yes, she dodged a debate, which was a mistake.) Jolly was not nearly as much in that category.  

[Meeker]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

[Reaganfan]

Excellent outcome. A Jolly good night

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

[Meeker]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?