Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[Donerail]

Sink way up in fundraising.

Though, for what it's worth, Jolly is outpacing Sink in fundraising from Pinellas donors.

[Donerail]

New poll has Jolly up 11 on Bircher, 13 on Peters.

[Zioneer]

New poll has Jolly up 11 on Bircher, 13 on Peters.

Too bad they're not testing Jolly/Bircher/Peters vs Sink.

[Tender Branson]

Gravis Marketing shows a much closer race (Jolly+6, with Peters dominating among early voters):



Election day voters only:



Those who have already voted:



Human Events and Gravis Marketing conducted a random survey of 976 registered Republican voters in Florida’s 13th Congressional District regarding current events and whom they would likely vote for among the candidates.  The poll carries a margin of error of 3%

http://gravismarketingblog.com/2014/01/10/florida-congressional-district-13-jolly-holds-lead-gravis-marketing-poll

...

Looks like Peters could win if there's some trend to her among election day voters only.

[Flake]

52%?!? Wow.. I didn't expect her to do so well.

[Donerail]

It is still Gravis - but Peters is probably the strongest the Rs can put forward. Bad news for Sink.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Jolly's site seems a bit more substantive than Peters though. Not really sure between them which to pull for really.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for today:

36% Bircher
33% Jolly
31% Peters

[ElectionsGuy]

Republican primary today! Will be interesting.

[Hifly]

It is still Gravis - but Peters is probably the strongest the Rs can put forward. Bad news for Sink.

Surely Jolly is the best the Rs can get since he's the most moderate and got the Young family endorsement for what that's worth.

[Donerail]

It is still Gravis - but Peters is probably the strongest the Rs can put forward. Bad news for Sink.

Surely Jolly is the best the Rs can get since he's the most moderate and got the Young family endorsement for what that's worth.

Jolly's not the most moderate - Jolly's been running to Peters' right, accusing her of not being willing to repeal Obamacare, being insufficiently pro-life, that kind of thing. Really more of a battle between two establishment Republicans - one of them (Peters) backed by State Sen. Jack Latvala and his associates (Sheriffs Gualtieri and Coats, State Rep. Ed Hooper, etc), the other (Jolly) backed by Beverly Young and much of the St. Pete money establishment (Mayor Baker, Mel Sembler, Gordon England). Peters' campaign is more of a 'Jolly is a DC lobbyist' than a 'I'm conservative/moderate' thing. Bircher's the Tea Party candidate, of course - neither Peters nor Jolly are that way. There's a long historical background (with Pinellas being a GOP stronghold back when the rest of Florida voted Dem giving rise to more centrist area Republicans) that explains all that.

Anyways, Jolly doesn't have the Young family - Billy Young Jr. has endorsed and done emails for Peters, while Beverly Young (unpopular since the Times did a piece on how she cut off Bill's first family after a messy divorce) is backing Jolly.

Since Tender's doing an upset prediction, may as well do my own:

Peters: 35%
Jolly: 34%
Bircher: 31%

[Flake]

My prediction (as someone who has a limited knowledge of Pinellas Politics):

Jolly: 39%
Peters: 36%
Bircher: 25%

[DINGO Joe]

Just read an article that said 33,000 voted by mail or in early voting (19% turnout), while live turnout today at 2PM was just 3%, so it seems that all that matters is early voting.  The two polls cited above had wildly different numbers for those who had already voted.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/voters-show-up-early-for-special-primary-election/2160903

[Flake]

David Jolly leading with 44% of the vote, Kathleen Peters receives 33%, Mark Bircher has 23%.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/politics/results.html



*election day music*

[DINGO Joe]

David Jolly leading with 44% of the vote, Kathleen Peters receives 33%, Mark Bircher has 23%.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/politics/results.html

That's the early vote, looks like Jolly will win easily

[DINGO Joe]

And it's over--Jolly leads 44-32-24 with 75% of precincts in 15 minutes after the polls closed

http://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/50611/123848/en/summary.html

[ElectionsGuy]

And it's over--Jolly leads 44-32-24 with 75% of precincts in 15 minutes after the polls closed

http://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/50611/123848/en/summary.html

Jesus, that was quick reporting.

[Flake]

96% Reported, Jolly 45, Peters 31, and Bircher 24.

[ElectionsGuy]

100% In.

David Jolly: 20,493 (44.6%)
Kathleen Peters: 14,234 (31.0%)
Mark Bircher: 11,242 (24.5%)

Voter Turnout: 27.1%
Total Votes: 45,969

General Election: Jolly vs. Sink

[DINGO Joe]

Just 10,035 voting at the polls today, the other 35,000+ was done by mail or early.  Bircher was actually second in election day voting.

http://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/50611/123861/en/vts.html?cid=0103

[Donerail]

Ugh. Still, at least we see what happens when a Washington resident faces off against someone from Thonotosassa.

[Tender Branson]

So, Sink vs. Jolly vs. some Libertarian guy.

[Tender Branson]

Sink should win by 51-47-2 or 52-46-2 or so.

[RogueBeaver]

Sabato now ranks this as Lean D, but cautions not to read too much into the result.

[windjammer]

Sabato now ranks this as Lean D, but cautions not to read too much into the result.

Too early. Honestly, I have the feeling Sink will lose.