Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[Meeker]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

Jolly is a deeply flawed candidate - Sink's entire campaign against him has been based on his lobbying career. The ads have written themselves.

True, but attack ads aren't exactly hard to make. If the November nominee is Kathleen Peters or some other legislator, they'll be attacked on their voting record. If it's Bev Young, they can point out that she is super nuts.

Bill Young Jr. might be a solid pick, but he doesn't seem the like political type.

Dismissing all lines of attack as equally harmful is a pretty ridiculous claim. Believable attacks on a candidate's biography and career are far more valuable than issue-based attacks on a voting record.

[Sol]

Well, I still believe she will lose, I don't know, I'm probably wrong, but this is what I fair.

Hardly, in fact, it happens alot.

In some situations this is definitely true- think of Hochul or that guy in Hawai'i. But that's not really this race's dynamic.

[Vega]

Well, I still believe she will lose, I don't know, I'm probably wrong, but this is what I fair.

Hardly, in fact, it happens alot.

In some situations this is definitely true- think of Hochul or that guy in Hawai'i. But that's not really this race's dynamic.

Djou, that's the Hawaiian guy.

But yeah, you are right.

[publicunofficial]

Bill Young II has announced he will run for HD-68, a Dem-held State House district that covers most of St. Petersburg.



That pretty much knocks him out of running against Sink, at least for a while.

[Vega]

Bill Young II has announced he will run for HD-68, a Dem-held State House district that covers most of St. Petersburg.



That pretty much knocks him out of running against Sink, at least for a while.

If he runs a good campaign he could win. Dwight Dudley, the incumbent in the 68th District, only won by 6 points in 2012.

[Donerail]

Bill Young II has announced he will run for HD-68, a Dem-held State House district that covers most of St. Petersburg.

That pretty much knocks him out of running against Sink, at least for a while.

If he runs a good campaign he could win. Dwight Dudley, the incumbent in the 68th District, only won by 6 points in 2012.

Obviously anyone who runs a good campaign will win - there's no particular lean to the seat. That said, we won 51-45, and the indie in the race who pulled the 4% dropped out to back us (too late to get his name off the ballot though), so I'm confident in our ability to hold it.

[moderatevoter]

http://www.saintpetersblog.com/the-secret-to-the-gop-vote-by-mail-surge-in-cd-13-jeb-bush

[Meeker]

DCCC filed a monster $570k ad buy against Jolly yesterday

[Donerail]

DCCC filed a monster $570k ad buy against Jolly yesterday

Could be too late - there's recently been a large surge in early votes in favor of the Republicans. I don't know if you can have any kind of monster ad buy with 191 ads running per day already. Living in the media market... well, I've been watching a lot of Netflix recently.

[Meeker]

Here's the big outside TV spending in total... this doesn't include mail and online

Opposing Jolly
DCCC: $2,007k
House Majority PAC: $634k
ETA - League of Conservation Voters: $217k

Supporting Sink
Sierra Club: $100k

Opposing Sink
NRCC: $1,629k
Chamber of Commerce: $800k
American Action Network: $405k
American Crossroads: $325k

Supporting Jolly
Chamber of Commerce: $400k
NRCC: $234k

[Miles]

National Republicans are really frustrated with Jolly:

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[Donerail]

Good news for Jolly though - Overby's in a bit of trouble. Story tomorrow.

[windjammer]

Is Sink leading?

[publicunofficial]

National Republicans are really frustrated with Jolly:

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Deflecting blame. They're preparing for a Jolly loss, so they can blame it on him rather than any sort of national mood or accusations that their talking points aren't working.

If Jolly wins, it was because of ObamaCare, taxes, ect. If he loses, it was because he didn't listen to the NRCC. That's the line they'll use.

Is Sink leading?

No idea. Republican ballots outnumber Democratic/Independent ballots, but not by much (Republicans usually lead in early ballots here). Also, Republicans cast a plurality of votes in 2012 when Obama won the district, so that doesn't tell us much.

I still expect Sink to win, but a loss wouldn't surprise me.

[Donerail]

Good news for Jolly though - Overby's in a bit of trouble. Story tomorrow.

Overby named in racial discrimination lawsuit.

[publicunofficial]

Good news for Jolly though - Overby's in a bit of trouble. Story tomorrow.

Overby named in racial discrimination lawsuit.

Were I a bit more inebriated, I'd make a crack about how this won't change the minds of anyone planning to vote Libertarian and imply that Libertarians are racist.

But I'm not, so I won;t/

[Meeker]

Overby is just a protest vote anyways. Doesn't really matter who he is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mr Jolly is running for Congress? But he's dead!

[DINGO Joe]

Through Sunday, the last day for in person early voting, but with mail bailouts able to be returned the early vote is now up to 122,000 with the R advantage of about 4500 voters or just under 4%.  There will probably be about 13,000 more mail bailout over the next two days, so a total of 135,000 early votes. 

For comparison, in 2010 there were 116,000 early votes and 93,000 election day votes.  I doubt that the special will match an off year election (which did include a gov and sen race) turnout, so election day turnout will probably be in the 40,000-60,000 range.  Weather should be beautiful election day--High of 77, no rain.

[Tender Branson]

This is tomorrow.

My prediction:

49.7% Sink
47.1% Jolly
  3.1% Overby
  0.1% Write-in-guy

[Donerail]

My call: 48% Sink, 46% Jolly, 6% Overby. Bullish on Overby because of the localism factor.

[free my dawg]

49.3% Sink, 47.5% Jolly, 3.2% Overby

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

50% Sink
48% Jolly
2% Overby

[Dereich]

48.7 Jolly
48.4 Sink

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

48% for Sink and Jolly, just under 4% for Overby. I don't know who will win, but if I had to bet my life on it, I'd say Sink.