Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[Talleyrand]

50% Jolly 46% Sink 4% Overby

[publicunofficial]

50% Sink
47% Jolly
3% Overby

[RogueBeaver]

Smith says flip a coin, but personally gives a hangnail's edge to Jolly. Sabato still has it Lean D.

[Maxwell]

50% Sink
48% Jolly
2% Overby

[Zioneer]

50% Sink
48% Jolly
2% Overby

This seems like a reasonable guess. Maybe switch .5% somewhere, though I couldn't tell you where.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The GOP throwing Jolly under the bus makes me think Sink. But as has been pointed out elsewhere, the GOP has good reason to turn a referendum on ObamaCare into a referendum on Jolly if the results don't go the way they want.

[Tender Branson]

Results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/FL_US_House_0311.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[ElectionsGuy]

49-47-4

Sink-Jolly-Other

[Kushahontas]

will be a tad bold and say Sink 51%-Jolly 47%

[SPQR]

Sink 49%
Jolly 48%
Overby 3%

[badgate]

Sink 51%
Jolly 48%

[Torie]

The turnout numbers seem so far seem to fit the Jolly "win" model (about 170K total votes cast), with about 140K so far, rather than the 200K number that favors Sink, so ...

[SWE]

49-47-4

Sink-Jolly-Other

[Joshgreen]

Sink truly is one of the worst candidates out there...still probably wins though

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jolly 51.4%
Sink 48.2%
Overby 0.6%

[OkThen]

Sink: 49%
Jolly: 46%
Overby: 5%

[windjammer]

Something like:
Jolly: 49%
Sink: 48.5%
Overbe: 2.5%

Sorry guys, but it would surprise me a lot to see the democrats picking a tilt R seat, especially in a special election and with Obama being in the negative!

[ajc0918]

The turnout numbers seem so far seem to fit the Jolly "win" model (about 170K total votes cast), with about 140K so far, rather than the 200K number that favors Sink, so ...

What numbers are you using? At 4:30 the SOE announced 8.8% ED turnout with 27.5% EV/AB turnout for a total of 36.3%. There are 460,600 FL13 voters eligible, so approx. 167k have cast ballots so far.

I think it'll be close.

[Torie]

The turnout numbers seem so far seem to fit the Jolly "win" model (about 170K total votes cast), with about 140K so far, rather than the 200K number that favors Sink, so ...

What numbers are you using? At 4:30 the SOE announced 8.8% ED turnout with 27.5% EV/AB turnout for a total of 36.3%. There are 460,600 FL13 voters eligible, so approx. 167k have cast ballots so far.

I think it'll be close.

I was using the earlier posted figure. My guess is the final figure will be around 175K given the new numbers.

[Horus]

Jolly - 52%
Sink - 46%
Overby - 2%

[publicunofficial]

Every hack political writer is working extra hard tonight, writing two articles for both outcomes.


We can look forward to reading articles tomorrow about what this race says about Ed Gillespie's chances.

[ag]

Should be Jolly by a couple percentage points.

30 minutes to the first results.

[Flake]

And it begins:



Early voters (about 120,000) went 49-46-5 Sink.

[ajc0918]

Absentee Votes:

David W. Jolly (REP)   59,950      
Alex Sink (DEM)   62,978      
Lucas Overby (LPF)   6,629      
WRITE-IN    262   

[ajc0918]

28 of 225 Precincts Reporting
        Percent   Votes
David W. Jolly (REP)      46.36%   63,054
Alex Sink (DEM)      48.38%   65,797
Lucas Overby (LPF)      5.07%   6,892
WRITE-IN      0.20%   270
             Total 136,013