Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?

Having worked on several campaigns, I can concur with Meeker that it just isn't that simple.

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?

No, just have a higher standard for the supposed "professionals". Why do you feel the need to carry water for Sink?

[SWE]

Excellent outcome. A Jolly good night

Haha I get it's a play on words

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?

Having worked on several campaigns, I can concur with Meeker that it just isn't that simple.

No it's not simple to do, but the idea behind it is simple. That's how the Obamans cleaned the Clintons' clocks in '08.

[Meeker]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?

No, just have a higher standard for the supposed "professionals". Why do you feel the need to carry water for Sink?

Why? Because there are people who just spent three or fourth months of their lives down there, working twelve-hour days, seven days a week, living on couches, and barely getting paid anything. And your suggestion to them is they should've just worked harder and been better?

You're both a prick and an idiot. And now you're on ignore. Have a nice life.

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?

No, just have a higher standard for the supposed "professionals". Why do you feel the need to carry water for Sink?

Why? Because there are people who just spent three or fourth months of their lives down there, working twelve-hour days, seven days a week, living on couches, and barely getting paid anything. And your suggestion to them is they should've just worked harder and been better?

You're both a prick and an idiot. And now you're on ignore. Have a nice life.

I'm not blaming them! I'm blaming Sink and the DCCC. I in no way mean to impugn any volunteers on this campaign.

[Donerail]

Alright, let’s see what’s going on.

Gerrymandering - not really. FL-13 is relatively compact, and has been as it is for the past several cycles. Indeed, it’s less gerrymandered than the old FL-13. Yes, Sink would’ve won if South St. Pete had been in the district, no question - but gerrymandering wasn’t what killed this seat. FL-13 was like this for the past couple cycles because of the Tampa-based VRA district - and Obama still won this district.

This really was a throwaway by the Dems. Jerry mentioned Kriseman - as much as I like the guy (worked his mayoral run), he just got elected to the mayorship. I think he’s a great candidate and I’ll support him for whatever he does, but I’d like to see him in the mayor’s office for as long as possible. There were, however, a lot of better Dem candidates. Someone like Charlie Justice (or Charlie Crist, if he lived here) is who I’d want to see nominated - honestly, I think Justice could’ve won. I know where Charlie Justice lives. He’s got a house, he works at the local college. Where does Alex Sink work? There’s a reason the Jolly signs said “Let’s Win This For Pinellas.” She lives in a condo in Feather Sound that she rents. Overby lives in Clearwater, Jolly’s got a homestead exemption on his condo on the beach - if they lost, they’d keep on living here. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sink went back to Thonotosassa. Sink just wasn’t that good a candidate - someone who actually lived in Pinellas could’ve done it, or just somebody who actually showed up to the debates. Probably the end of her political career. Hope she doesn’t try to return in November.

This wasn’t a loss because of Republican money - they were pretty even in money. Sink’s campaign outraised Jolly, and outside totals were relatively comparable. I can’t count the number of outside group ads in the district, but there wasn’t a noticeable slant to either side. We needed a better candidate. This was a failure on the part of FL Democratic leadership, but that’s not news. We’ve got talent, in people like Murphy, Graham (who - in contrast to the ludicrous claims earlier up - should be funded as much as we can), Nelson, and a lot of the big-city mayors (Buckhorn, Dyer, Iorio, Brown), as well as Crist. Democratic leadership isn’t great, but it never has been - and nominating DWS or Deutch in 2016 won’t fix that. Change begins at the ground level - electing good Dems to the State Legislature and County Commissions, and that’s something the FDP just isn’t focusing on. So yeah, bless Sawx’s post.

-Sent from FL-13

[Holmes]

Why anyone would want to reward these cretins with a vote after they shut down the government and nearly defaulted the country is beyond me, but w/e.

[Donerail]

Why anyone would want to reward these cretins with a vote after they shut down the government and nearly defaulted the country is beyond me, but w/e.

On a national level Republicans are utterly terrible for the economy, but in the district - I went downtown today. One of the buildings I passed was the C.W. Bill Young Marine Science Complex at USF-St. Pete. If I go out to the beaches, they're beaches renourished by federal money brought here by a Republican. If I go to MacDill AFB in Tampa, or the C.W. Bill Young VA Medical Center - that's impacting the regional economy, from a Republican. I can even drink water, from the C.W. Bill Young Reservoir. National Republicans aren't helping the district - but Bill Young did. Young was a good man, who really did help this district - lot of local pro-Young sentiment that at least blunts that kind of attack.

[njwes]

1.) SJoyce, being from the district, I'm curious about your feelings on the 4.8% for Overby. Who do you think he got those votes from? My hunch would be they were largely people who would otherwise have not voted, or voted Republican, but I read elsewhere that he was drawing votes from both candidates.

2.) Lolz @ Dems immediately bringing up the Koch boogeyman. As always, big money is only bad when Republicans use it

3.) It's comical to see Dems admit that their base voters are politically ignorant, unmotivated, and apathetic outside of a general election; even then they tend to require bussing straight to the polls. Not that everyone didn't know that already, but still.

[DrScholl]

FL-14 isn't a VRA seat, and it's actually majority white if I am correct. That part of St. Pete does not belong in FL-14, it's not a clean map and it's not VRA required.

No Democrat was winning this seat, turnout fall off didn't allow for it and it was specifically drawn for a Republican to win, despite the fact that Obama won it.

[njwes]

FL-14 isn't a VRA seat, and it's actually majority white if I am correct. That part of St. Pete does not belong in FL-14, it's not a clean map and it's not VRA required.

No Democrat was winning this seat, turnout fall off didn't allow for it and it was specifically drawn for a Republican to win, despite the fact that Obama won it.

Yes, yes, let the hate flow through you.

[DrScholl]

FL-14 isn't a VRA seat, and it's actually majority white if I am correct. That part of St. Pete does not belong in FL-14, it's not a clean map and it's not VRA required.

No Democrat was winning this seat, turnout fall off didn't allow for it and it was specifically drawn for a Republican to win, despite the fact that Obama won it.

Yes, yes, let the hate flow through you.

What about my post was hateful?

[Donerail]

1.) SJoyce, being from the district, I'm curious about your feelings on the 4.8% for Overby. Who do you think he got those votes from? My hunch would be they were largely people who would otherwise have not voted, or voted Republican, but I read elsewhere that he was drawing votes from both candidates.

I felt he was drawing pretty evenly - some of my Dem friends were concerned about how much he was drawing from them. Overby gave off a polished sort of "libertarian but not that kind of libertarian" appearance, and is pretty moderate. He's certainly not pulling 100% from Jolly. Had he not been in it, Jolly still would've won but it would've been by around the same margin (with slightly reduced turnout).

FL-14 isn't a VRA seat, and it's actually majority white if I am correct. That part of St. Pete does not belong in FL-14, it's not a clean map and it's not VRA required.

No Democrat was winning this seat, turnout fall off didn't allow for it and it was specifically drawn for a Republican to win, despite the fact that Obama won it.

The district is majority-minority. Probably white plurality, but I don't have the exact numbers on it. I live in that part of St. Pete (lived in FL-13 before this year, still go to school there), and you're correct that it doesn't belong in FL-14. But Democrats can win without it.

It was drawn for Bill Young to win. We could've gotten a much better candidate than Sink - better candidate with a better campaign would've won.

[King]

BILL OWENS VICTORY IN REPUBLICAN NY-23 SIGNIFIES VOTER REJECTION OF TEA PARTY FERVOR HEADING INTO 2010 MIDTERMS

MORE AT 11.

[7,052,770]

I would be a little more concerned if this seat had previously been held by a Democrat...

[Torie]

Well, the spin machine is on.

Link


MEMO: IN HEAVILY REPUBLICAN DISTRICT, DEMOCRATS PROVED THEY CAN COMPETE



Interesting. Before it was Jolly who was setting expectations down.

That is indeed S-P-I-N - on steroids. Political hacks, and there are far too many in both parties, have no shame. When their lips are moving, you know they're lying.

[Princess Nyan Cat]

This seat was a must-win for Democrats to have any hope for taking control of the House this coming election. Yet even recruiting one of the most well-known candidates in the state and she outspent her opponent 4-to-1, she still loses.

Gives me renewed faith in the state where I spent most of my life!

[free my dawg]

Ehrlich 2016. That's all I need to say.

[CountryClassSF]

I always find it ironic that somehow Soros funded SuperPACs which seem to have more $ than the Koch's do are fair game.

But the Koch's are still the boogeymen here?

No matter how you slice it, Sink and her allies had more $ than Jolly - and he still won. Play the blame game, but don't blame "Republican $" when there was less of it (as seems to be the norm nowadays) than Dem $.

So proud of the Sunshine State!

[Aliens]

I think most people can agree that including Overby in that debate last month was a good thing.  He covered the spread, but obviously didn't take too many votes away from Jolly compared to Sink.

[Tender Branson]

OH. MY. GOD ...

Democrats are either extremely lazy voters, or Sink is a fail-candidate. Or both.

[Keystone Phil]

What's the excuse this time? "Jolly was just too good of a candidate?"

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Not a tragedy, given it was one special election.

Sink should definitively move away from the electoral politics, though.

[Person Man]

OH. MY. GOD ...

Democrats are either extremely lazy voters, or Sink is a fail-candidate. Or both.

That's the thing about Florida Democrats, anyways. You would think the Florida would be between North Carolina and Georgia based on its down ballot. They only turn out for presidents.   Sink lost to Scott because she got blamed for the country, if not the develop world's, if not the world's worst housing crisis. Also, the culture in North Clearwater, especially Clearwater Beach and Tarpon Springs is VERY Republican. Its part of the Redneck Rivera.