Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[publicunofficial]

Lobbyist and former general counsel to Rep. Young David Jolly has entered the race with the backing of Beverly Young.

With the Young family and Rick Baker out, I think you can pretty much call this Lean D.

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Jolly's lobbying past has dug up an odd tidbit of info

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Castor and Nelson I can get, seeing as how a lobbyist has to be bipartisan. He's gonna have a tough time explaining donating to Jesse Jackson Jr. though.

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The GOP base might not like Jolly, but they're running out of options.


Pinellas County Commissioner Karen Seel is out.

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Jessica Ehrlich is dropping out of the Dem primary

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Okay seriously since when has Alex Sink been a white woman? For some reason, I've always been under the impression that Alex Sink was black and male. Didn't realize this correct until seeing JacobTiver's sig just now.

If it helps, I think she's 1/4 Chinese. She's a descendant of one of the original Siamese Twins.

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Now that all the candidates are in, I think we can start calling this Lean D.

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Political consultant Nick Zoller, who was one of the first Republicans to declare, is only 24 and thus ineligible to run. Zoller has said he will run in November 2014 instead, regardless of who wins.


The final list of candidates are as follows:


Republicans:
Mark Bircher - Retired USMC Brigadier General
David Jolly - Attorney, Lobbyist, and former general counsel to Bill Young.
Kathleen Peters - State Representative, former Mayor of South Pasadena

Democrats:
Alex Sink - Former Chief Financial Officer of Florida, 2010 Democratic nominee for Governor of Florida

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Bev Young: Kinda nuts

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As DKE points out, St. Pete Polls has a TERRIBLE track record.

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Also, Sabato changed his rating from Toss-Up to Lean D today, despite this poll.

[publicunofficial]

I hope Sink wins, but I also hope no one votes against Jolly because of something like this.

[publicunofficial]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

[publicunofficial]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

Now, now. No need for name calling.

The reason why I say that, is that it's a seat with Republican DNA. Since turnout will be higher, as you noted, it will bring out more Republicans possibly.

What? Just because Bill Young held it for years doesn't mean it's genetically Republican. And the Republican base in FL-13 is mostly retirees and other old white people, people who are already turning out pretty highly. Higher turnout would bring out minorities, younger people, people who only care about the Governor's race, ect.

I've never heard of higher turnout HURTING Democratic chances, and I don't think this'll be the first case of it. If Sink loses FL-13, it'll be next week, not next November.

[publicunofficial]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

Jolly is a deeply flawed candidate - Sink's entire campaign against him has been based on his lobbying career. The ads have written themselves.

True, but attack ads aren't exactly hard to make. If the November nominee is Kathleen Peters or some other legislator, they'll be attacked on their voting record. If it's Bev Young, they can point out that she is super nuts.

Bill Young Jr. might be a solid pick, but he doesn't seem the like political type.

[publicunofficial]

Bill Young Jr. might be a solid pick, but he doesn't seem the like political type.

Nope.

He could be persuaded to run if Sink wins. He might've said no because he didn't want to get in Jolly's way. He is a family friend after all.

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Bill Young II has announced he will run for HD-68, a Dem-held State House district that covers most of St. Petersburg.



That pretty much knocks him out of running against Sink, at least for a while.

[publicunofficial]

National Republicans are really frustrated with Jolly:

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Deflecting blame. They're preparing for a Jolly loss, so they can blame it on him rather than any sort of national mood or accusations that their talking points aren't working.

If Jolly wins, it was because of ObamaCare, taxes, ect. If he loses, it was because he didn't listen to the NRCC. That's the line they'll use.

Is Sink leading?

No idea. Republican ballots outnumber Democratic/Independent ballots, but not by much (Republicans usually lead in early ballots here). Also, Republicans cast a plurality of votes in 2012 when Obama won the district, so that doesn't tell us much.

I still expect Sink to win, but a loss wouldn't surprise me.

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Good news for Jolly though - Overby's in a bit of trouble. Story tomorrow.

Overby named in racial discrimination lawsuit.

Were I a bit more inebriated, I'd make a crack about how this won't change the minds of anyone planning to vote Libertarian and imply that Libertarians are racist.

But I'm not, so I won;t/

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50% Sink
47% Jolly
3% Overby

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Every hack political writer is working extra hard tonight, writing two articles for both outcomes.


We can look forward to reading articles tomorrow about what this race says about Ed Gillespie's chances.

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47-47-5 Sink

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Between Democratic boo-hooing and Republican taunting, I'm probably going to take a break from the forum for the next week.


All I'm going to say is that I hope the DCCC is calling up names not named Alex Sink.

[publicunofficial]

Time to bump this horror-show of a thread.


Alex Sink is still considering a rematch against Jolly.

The article also mentions that Sink's internal polling always showed the race much closer than the public polls were saying (Much like McAuliffe's internals last year) and that Sink's camp primarily blames their loss on not getting the turnout they needed.

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Sink is the only Democrat to win a constitutional office in Florida this century, so I don't see her as a bad candidate. Besides, I read that the DCCC wants her to run again and they don't usually want poor candidates to run again.

She won one election eight years ago.

Still, it's a stretch to keep calling her a horrible candidate. She over performed greatly in poor turnout conditions, I don't think any other candidate would have done as well in FL-13 as Sink, nor as well for Governor in 2010.

She overperformed? When the polls are predicting you'll win, and you'll lose, that's not called overperforming. That's underperforming. Any of the other candidates who grew up in FL-13 or have actually lived in FL-13 or owned a house in FL-13 or held a job in FL-13 would've done just as well if not better.

As said above, you can't blame Sink for not living up to the polls; her own internal polling always had it very close. The polls were bad.

Also, I'm okay with Sink running. If she loses again, then we can tell her to shove it and start recruiting Charlie Justice or whoever else we think would be better. If she wins, she proves the special election was purely a turnout game an obliterates the "Referendum on Obamacare" talking point. Also, I think the DCCC should show loyalty to the candidates they recruit into tough races.

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Sink will not run in the General

My fellow Democrats can now begin cheering because it was COMPLETELY her fault and she deserves to die in a hole for losing /borderline-misogynist

[publicunofficial]

Agreed with Sawx entirely; Ehrlich can win. Sink cannot.

Sink will not run in the General

My fellow Democrats can now begin cheering because it was COMPLETELY her fault and she deserves to die in a hole for losing /borderline-misogynist

So, let me get this straight, voting for a man or criticizing a female candidate is misogynist?

It's misogynist when this forum treats every female candidate like a "bitch" or a idiot when they lose. If Alex Sink was a guy, this forum would not have gone as apes**t as it did when she lost.