Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[IceSpear]

No shock really. Many Democrats think the presidency is the only office that matters and vote (or not vote) accordingly. I thought the Dem advantage in cash and name recognition would be enough to counter that in this specific race, but apparently not. Dems are in big trouble for 2014 unless we can get our voters to turn out.

Side note, Alex Sink has to be the biggest paper tiger in FL politics.

[IceSpear]

You can't force people to vote, so turnout isn't what you make it. A lot of people who vote in presidential elections simply aren't plugged into any other elections in off-years.

I wonder if we could be in a period where the country continually oscillates between Republican wins in midterms/off years and Democratic wins in presidentials, simply due to turnout differences. It would be hell for people who want a functional government though. Our politics are already WAY too based on the time someone runs as opposed to who the candidates actually are.

[IceSpear]

I don't blame Sink nor gerrymandering for this. It's the anti-Obamacare ads that cost democrats this seat. But if that's the price, I think dems. should pay it and keep Obamacare going on without changes. It should be more popular by november and with or without Sink, we can flip this seat and many others if we also start talking about Obamacare and not letting republicans and outside groups being the only ones talking about it.

I want to know Flo's opinion about this loss, as Sink was the person who "brought him to the political World".

The party as a whole seems to be resting on their laurels as Dem senators are getting assaulted by millions of dollars in Koch funded ads. Hopefully this will wake them up.

[IceSpear]

Despite Sink clearly being a paper tiger, I think Dems here are just using her as a scapegoat. No Democrat would've beaten Scott in 2010, and I doubt any Democrat would've beaten Jolly tonight. However, if this election was on November 6, 2012 Sink would've won, probably by a comfortable margin. Same with the governor's race.

The real problem is that our voters stay home unless a president is on the ballot, along with gerrymandering. Treat the causes, not the symptom. Unfortunately, neither can be fixed easily.

[IceSpear]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

[IceSpear]

So does Sink join Coakley in your Hall of Infamy, Dems?

I don't think so. In that race, it truly was Coakley's fault almost completely. She was caught napping and thought it was beneath her dignity to campaign. Although the environment would've helped Brown regardless, without the utter disaster that was Coakley, I doubt he ever would've caught as much traction as he did.

As for Sink, while she's clearly not anywhere near as strong of a candidate as was thought back when she was constantly talked up in 2007-2009, I don't see her as a particularly weak candidate either. She was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. Twice.

[IceSpear]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

[IceSpear]

It's easy to scapegoat Alex Sink rather than address the long term issue of Democrats not turning out in elections that don't have a president on the ballot. Kind of like how the GOP thinks all they need to do to regain the presidency is change the messenger and not the message.

[IceSpear]

The democrats really need to do something about turnout in midterms. Hopefully they can win a big in 2016 and take the house back with a large enough majority to not lose it in 2018. Although 2018 needs to be at least a decent year for the Democrats they need to get at least partial control of state governments for redistricting purposes. Even forcing fair maps will help.

I really don't understand why equally as partisan Dems don't vote at the same rate as partisan Republicans in midterms and special elections.

Because Democratic voters tend to be skew younger and consist of more disenfranchised groups (lower income, more minority groups, etc.). The Republican base mainly consists of old white men who would crawl over broken glass to vote straight ticket Republican for the local city council and dog catcher races.

[IceSpear]

Because Democratic voters tend to be skew younger and consist of more disenfranchised groups (lower income, more minority groups, etc.). The Republican base mainly consists of old white men who would crawl over broken glass to vote straight ticket Republican for the local city council and dog catcher races.

It's wild, inaccurate, bigoted generalizations like that that drove this young, professional female to become a Republican.

Huh? Are you saying that the Republican base ISN'T mainly old white people and the Democratic base ISN'T mainly minorities and young people?

Of course there are people that don't fit those descriptions in both parties, but nobody said there wasn't.

[IceSpear]

It would pretty much take a miracle to win the House this year anyway, so why not save our good candidates for 2016?