Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[Joshgreen]

Sink truly is one of the worst candidates out there...still probably wins though

[Joshgreen]

Sink manages to screw up another easily winnable election...what a surprise...

[Joshgreen]

You can't blame Sink, this district is a rigged gerrymander, blame the Republican legislature for breaking the rules of the redistricting amendment.

She knew the shape of the district going in. Instead of wasting money on ads, maybe she could have turned out the vote... #useless

[Joshgreen]

I hope they run this loser out of the state

[Joshgreen]

I mean, who doesn't love to blame gerrymandering? But it's a pretty weak excuse when your candidates start with 20 POINT LEADS.

I really thought Jolly winning would be an upset. F#ck me sideways.

That 20% lead always seemed inflated, Sink was never going to win by that much, let alone at all.

If she had actual ground game she could have easily won by 5-10

[Joshgreen]

In fairness to Sink, turnout benefits Dems and special elections in a swing district are rarely a good thing for them.

That said, she was certainly unimpressive here.

That's why you have a campaign, to shape the turnout...

[Joshgreen]

I feel like Sink's political career is basically over after this.

That said, I can't be happy with a guy like Jolly going to Congress.

Why does it matter? He has an R next to his name, take what you can get.

Because I'm not an R. And Jolly is the type of Republican that sickens me.

Jolly will be yet another corporate shill. Sink would have been little better.

[Joshgreen]

In fairness to Sink, turnout benefits Dems and special elections in a swing district are rarely a good thing for them.

That said, she was certainly unimpressive here.

That's why you have a campaign, to shape the turnout...

You make it sound like turnout is an easily malable lump of clay to be "shaped" as the candidate wishes. Special elections make that rather difficult.

When you have a good ground game, you make the turnout what you want it to be. Aren't the Dems supposed to be the pros at targeting, well they dropped the ball on this one. In the end though, the blame falls on the candidate.

[Joshgreen]

Sink is conceding, but says she isn't sure what the future holds. Crowd shouting NOVEMBER.

Sink should focus on being a granny, not on playing in a game that's clearly out of her league.

[Joshgreen]

Democrats need to make this seat a priority in November, with Sink or otherwise. Jolly won't be entrenched and Crist will carry the district.

No, Sink needs to be run out of the state.

[Joshgreen]

In fairness to Sink, turnout benefits Dems and special elections in a swing district are rarely a good thing for them.

That said, she was certainly unimpressive here.

That's why you have a campaign, to shape the turnout...

You make it sound like turnout is an easily malable lump of clay to be "shaped" as the candidate wishes. Special elections make that rather difficult.

When you have a good ground game, you make the turnout what you want it to be. Aren't the Dems supposed to be the pros at targeting, well they dropped the ball on this one. In the end though, the blame falls on the candidate.

Srsly?

That's what the Obamans did in both '08 and '12, is it asking too much for a candidate outraising her opponent 2-1 to do the same in a single US county?

[Joshgreen]

You can't force people to vote, so turnout isn't what you make it. A lot of people who vote in presidential elections simply aren't plugged into any other elections in off-years.

Strawman. People will vote if you give them the proper incentives...free rides, absentee pickup, etc

[Joshgreen]

Alright. Now that I made some thoughts, I'd like to comment to more at length on the disaster known as the FL-13 race. The Florida Democratic Party needs to be razed from the ground up. Keep Murphy, Nelson, and MAYBE Gwen Graham. After tonight, the rest can get the  out for COMPLETE AND UTTER ING INCOMPETENCE.

So, a rare swing district in Florida (IIRC 6 out of 27 districts, one of them being held down by a longtime moderate incumbent) opens up after the second longtime moderate incumbent dies. Republicans were essentially set to nominate David Jolly, a DC lobbyist, legal counselor to Bill Young, and vehicular killer with little ties to the district. Normal logic would say to run a good candidate who represents the Tampa Bay area and spends their time there, like a county commissioner or an attorney who made a surprise run at the seat last cycle.

But Florida Democrats follow a different type of logic. Florida Democrats' logic would be that running a lazy, failed candidate who lost to a slimy criminal and doesn't even live in the district would result in a pickup, and pouring obscene amounts of money into the race would flip this seat into her hands. Naturally, Alex Sink decided that spending all of her money on ads and having about as much presence in her suddenly-new home as she did while Bill Young was a better way to spend her resources, and to attack Jolly on the issues instead of the fact that he's essentially Washington, DC personified. Instead of being principled, she did her best Tea Party impression when it came to immigration,  So thirty minutes ago, I watched the worst-case scenario unfold: Florida Democrats, one again, screwed the pooch.

Same thing with Rick Scott: normal logic would say to run a clean, honest candidate against a shady businessman who treats the state second to his old business this November to ensure a win, like one of the many Democratic mayors. Florida Democrat logic would be to run an ex-Republican who only turned Democratic to win back the office that he left in his last failed run. Now, my fears are starting to cook up again: same sh**t happens again, Crist loses to Scott, and Florida continues down the road of becoming the Hospital Corporation of America's business subsidary.

Yes, the district was a little gerrymandered. Yes, it was a special election. But this district was also an Obama 2012, D-trending district where the last candidate broke 40% against a man who spent half of his entire life serving the district that loved him. When he died, this seat had a very good chance to go Democratic, especially against Jolly. Then, Alex Sink came along and once again, snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Florida Democrats should be ashamed.

Agree completely. One would think that the local schmucks would learn after getting their ass handed back to them time after time.

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?

No, just have a higher standard for the supposed "professionals". Why do you feel the need to carry water for Sink?

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?

Having worked on several campaigns, I can concur with Meeker that it just isn't that simple.

No it's not simple to do, but the idea behind it is simple. That's how the Obamans cleaned the Clintons' clocks in '08.

[Joshgreen]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?

No, just have a higher standard for the supposed "professionals". Why do you feel the need to carry water for Sink?

Why? Because there are people who just spent three or fourth months of their lives down there, working twelve-hour days, seven days a week, living on couches, and barely getting paid anything. And your suggestion to them is they should've just worked harder and been better?

You're both a prick and an idiot. And now you're on ignore. Have a nice life.

I'm not blaming them! I'm blaming Sink and the DCCC. I in no way mean to impugn any volunteers on this campaign.

[Joshgreen]

It's easy to scapegoat Alex Sink rather than address the long term issue of Democrats not turning out in elections that don't have a president on the ballot. Kind of like how the GOP thinks all they need to do to regain the presidency is change the messenger and not the message.

Except it's Sink's fault that she didn't turn out he vote...

[Joshgreen]

Because Democratic voters tend to be skew younger and consist of more disenfranchised groups (lower income, more minority groups, etc.). The Republican base mainly consists of old white men who would crawl over broken glass to vote straight ticket Republican for the local city council and dog catcher races.

It's wild, inaccurate, bigoted generalizations like that that drove this young, professional female to become a Republican.

WTF are you talking about.

No one around here cares why you joined a party that works against your interests

[Joshgreen]

Alex Sink should be exiled to Ukraine. Worst politician in the state of Florida.

Nah that honor goes to Katherine Harris.