Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[DrScholl]

Someone's been doing some very extensive opposition research.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-killed-a-man/2167218

[DrScholl]

Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.

[DrScholl]

Florida really will elect some bad candidates, I mean, seriously http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-killed-a-man/2167218

[DrScholl]

Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.

Yes, it may have been a small factor, but you lost because you nominated a horrible nominee.  You threw one away.  Should have had Rick Kriseman run instead of mayor.  You would have a house seat then.

No, you won because the legislature cut out black voters and used water continuity to pack them. You really think Jolly would have won if the whole of St. Pete was in the district?

[DrScholl]

You can't blame Sink, this district is a rigged gerrymander, blame the Republican legislature for breaking the rules of the redistricting amendment.

[DrScholl]

Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.

Yes, it may have been a small factor, but you lost because you nominated a horrible nominee.  You threw one away.  Should have had Rick Kriseman run instead of mayor.  You would have a house seat then.

Nope, gerrymandering one the seat for Republicans. There is no way any Democrat was going to win this seat in a special elections. Republicans knew what they were doing when they drew this district.
No, you won because the legislature cut out black voters and used water continuity to pack them. You really think Jolly would have won if the whole of St. Pete was in the district?

I know it was a factor, but not the main one.  You still, even with the gerrymander should have won the seat.  Jolly is a bad candidate, but Sink is worse.

[DrScholl]

You can't blame Sink, this district is a rigged gerrymander, blame the Republican legislature for breaking the rules of the redistricting amendment.

Didn't Obama win this district?

Narrowly, but down ballot, it's not more Republican.

[DrScholl]

You can't blame Sink, this district is a rigged gerrymander, blame the Republican legislature for breaking the rules of the redistricting amendment.

Please, lets stop with the excuses.

It's the truth, the district is gerrymandered. It's not really a big shock or conquest that a Republican won in this district.

[DrScholl]

I mean, who doesn't love to blame gerrymandering? But it's a pretty weak excuse when your candidates start with 20 POINT LEADS.

I really thought Jolly winning would be an upset. F#ck me sideways.

That 20% lead always seemed inflated, Sink was never going to win by that much, let alone at all.

[DrScholl]

Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.

Yes, it may have been a small factor, but you lost because you nominated a horrible nominee.  You threw one away.  Should have had Rick Kriseman run instead of mayor.  You would have a house seat then.

Nope, gerrymandering one the seat for Republicans. There is no way any Democrat was going to win this seat in a special elections. Republicans knew what they were doing when they drew this district.
No, you won because the legislature cut out black voters and used water continuity to pack them. You really think Jolly would have won if the whole of St. Pete was in the district?

I know it was a factor, but not the main one.  You still, even with the gerrymander should have won the seat.  Jolly is a bad candidate, but Sink is worse.

I completely disagree.  This was a winnable seat, especially with the candidate we ran.  It comes down to who you nominated.  She grabbed defeat out of the jaws of Victory.

It wasn't going to flip, period. Democrats can't win these sort of seats in low turnout special elections, not without other factors at play.

[DrScholl]

Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.

Yes, it may have been a small factor, but you lost because you nominated a horrible nominee.  You threw one away.  Should have had Rick Kriseman run instead of mayor.  You would have a house seat then.

Nope, gerrymandering one the seat for Republicans. There is no way any Democrat was going to win this seat in a special elections. Republicans knew what they were doing when they drew this district.
No, you won because the legislature cut out black voters and used water continuity to pack them. You really think Jolly would have won if the whole of St. Pete was in the district?

I know it was a factor, but not the main one.  You still, even with the gerrymander should have won the seat.  Jolly is a bad candidate, but Sink is worse.

I completely disagree.  This was a winnable seat, especially with the candidate we ran.  It comes down to who you nominated.  She grabbed defeat out of the jaws of Victory.

It wasn't going to flip, period. Democrats can't win these sort of seats in low turnout special elections, not without other factors at play.

Wrong again.  Obama won this district.  There were many better candidates on both sides.  You just nominated the wrong one.  Stop making excuses for it, she sucks, and I hope the FL Democratic party does not make the same mistake and nominate her for anything. 

The district voted as it was drawn to vote, it's as simple as that. The Republican legislature knew what it was doing when it drew this district. Obama may have won it, but that was with higher turnout.

[DrScholl]

I feel like Sink's political career is basically over after this.

That said, I can't be happy with a guy like Jolly going to Congress.

Why does it matter? He has an R next to his name, take what you can get.

[DrScholl]

Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.

Yes, it may have been a small factor, but you lost because you nominated a horrible nominee.  You threw one away.  Should have had Rick Kriseman run instead of mayor.  You would have a house seat then.

Nope, gerrymandering one the seat for Republicans. There is no way any Democrat was going to win this seat in a special elections. Republicans knew what they were doing when they drew this district.
No, you won because the legislature cut out black voters and used water continuity to pack them. You really think Jolly would have won if the whole of St. Pete was in the district?

I know it was a factor, but not the main one.  You still, even with the gerrymander should have won the seat.  Jolly is a bad candidate, but Sink is worse.

I completely disagree.  This was a winnable seat, especially with the candidate we ran.  It comes down to who you nominated.  She grabbed defeat out of the jaws of Victory.

It wasn't going to flip, period. Democrats can't win these sort of seats in low turnout special elections, not without other factors at play.

Wrong again.  Obama won this district.  There were many better candidates on both sides.  You just nominated the wrong one.  Stop making excuses for it, she sucks, and I hope the FL Democratic party does not make the same mistake and nominate her for anything. 

The district voted as it was drawn to vote, it's as simple as that. The Republican legislature knew what it was doing when it drew this district. Obama may have won it, but that was with higher turnout.

The district was drawn for Bill Young, yes, but it is trending democratic fast.  It should have been a pickup for you guys, even in a low turnout election.  You could have, and should have won.  It is Sinks fault you didn't, simple as that.

Bill Young was a Republican and at his age, the legislature couldn't have expected him to be there that much longer, so it was drawn with a Republican advantage period. Young might have won it un-gerrymandered, but that's something we'll never know.

[DrScholl]

Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.

Yes, it may have been a small factor, but you lost because you nominated a horrible nominee.  You threw one away.  Should have had Rick Kriseman run instead of mayor.  You would have a house seat then.

Nope, gerrymandering one the seat for Republicans. There is no way any Democrat was going to win this seat in a special elections. Republicans knew what they were doing when they drew this district.
No, you won because the legislature cut out black voters and used water continuity to pack them. You really think Jolly would have won if the whole of St. Pete was in the district?

I know it was a factor, but not the main one.  You still, even with the gerrymander should have won the seat.  Jolly is a bad candidate, but Sink is worse.

I completely disagree.  This was a winnable seat, especially with the candidate we ran.  It comes down to who you nominated.  She grabbed defeat out of the jaws of Victory.

It wasn't going to flip, period. Democrats can't win these sort of seats in low turnout special elections, not without other factors at play.

Wrong again.  Obama won this district.  There were many better candidates on both sides.  You just nominated the wrong one.  Stop making excuses for it, she sucks, and I hope the FL Democratic party does not make the same mistake and nominate her for anything. 

The district voted as it was drawn to vote, it's as simple as that. The Republican legislature knew what it was doing when it drew this district. Obama may have won it, but that was with higher turnout.

The district was drawn for Bill Young, yes, but it is trending democratic fast.  It should have been a pickup for you guys, even in a low turnout election.  You could have, and should have won.  It is Sinks fault you didn't, simple as that.

Bill Young was a Republican and at his age, the legislature couldn't have expected him to be there that much longer, so it was drawn with a Republican advantage period. Young might have won it un-gerrymandered, but that's something we'll never know.

Yes, we will never know.  Can I ask, why are you making excuses for Sink?  It is her fault.  Rick Kriseman would have easily won this district against jolly.

The district was drawn for Bill Young, yes, but it is trending democratic fast.  It should have been a pickup for you guys, even in a low turnout election.  You could have, and should have won.  It is Sinks fault you didn't, simple as that.

Someone at RRH said that this seat would be more Democratic with a fair map, but others, like Murphy's, would get more Republican.

True.  But, I think the map could have been much worse if the redistrict amendment had not passed. 

I'm not making excuses, I'm pointing out the makeup of the district. Even Charlie Crist probably wouldn't have won that seat in a special election.

[DrScholl]

You can't force people to vote, so turnout isn't what you make it. A lot of people who vote in presidential elections simply aren't plugged into any other elections in off-years.

[DrScholl]

FL-14 isn't a VRA seat, and it's actually majority white if I am correct. That part of St. Pete does not belong in FL-14, it's not a clean map and it's not VRA required.

No Democrat was winning this seat, turnout fall off didn't allow for it and it was specifically drawn for a Republican to win, despite the fact that Obama won it.

[DrScholl]

FL-14 isn't a VRA seat, and it's actually majority white if I am correct. That part of St. Pete does not belong in FL-14, it's not a clean map and it's not VRA required.

No Democrat was winning this seat, turnout fall off didn't allow for it and it was specifically drawn for a Republican to win, despite the fact that Obama won it.

Yes, yes, let the hate flow through you.

What about my post was hateful?

[DrScholl]

By all accounts given the 13th's demographics and the fact that David Jolly was a a terrible candidate with a terrible campaign Sink should have won.

If I were the a Democratic strategist I'd def take this as bad news for D prospects in general-not only in the House but in the Senate.  After all if they had trouble pulling off a victory in the 13th with more money, a better turnout operation and a stronger candidate imagine what it means in places even less friendly to the Democrats.   

Again, the district voted as it was drawn to, it's not a huge surprise or difficult for a Republican to achieve. If anything, Republicans lost a lot of ground, Young won 57% of the vote in a presidential year, whereas Jolly won only 48% in a special. We can spin all day, but it doesn't mean anything in terms of November.

[DrScholl]

Sink is the only Democrat to win a constitutional office in Florida this century, so I don't see her as a bad candidate. Besides, I read that the DCCC wants her to run again and they don't usually want poor candidates to run again.

[DrScholl]

Sink is the only Democrat to win a constitutional office in Florida this century, so I don't see her as a bad candidate. Besides, I read that the DCCC wants her to run again and they don't usually want poor candidates to run again.

The "best" candidate doesn't mean they are a lock. 'She ain't goin nowhere!

Who said she was a lock? I never put that in my post.

[DrScholl]

Sink is the only Democrat to win a constitutional office in Florida this century, so I don't see her as a bad candidate. Besides, I read that the DCCC wants her to run again and they don't usually want poor candidates to run again.

She won one election eight years ago.

Still, it's a stretch to keep calling her a horrible candidate. She over performed greatly in poor turnout conditions, I don't think any other candidate would have done as well in FL-13 as Sink, nor as well for Governor in 2010.

[DrScholl]

Sink is the only Democrat to win a constitutional office in Florida this century, so I don't see her as a bad candidate. Besides, I read that the DCCC wants her to run again and they don't usually want poor candidates to run again.

She won one election eight years ago.

Still, it's a stretch to keep calling her a horrible candidate. She over performed greatly in poor turnout conditions, I don't think any other candidate would have done as well in FL-13 as Sink, nor as well for Governor in 2010.

She overperformed? When the polls are predicting you'll win, and you'll lose, that's not called overperforming. That's underperforming. Any of the other candidates who grew up in FL-13 or have actually lived in FL-13 or owned a house in FL-13 or held a job in FL-13 would've done just as well if not better.

I won't argue about it, but the point is, she over performed in terms of how other Democrats would have performed with such turnout conditions. Some Democrats have lost by double digits in marginal seats or states, but Sink got pretty close. Turnout and gerrymandering are two issues that everyone wants to dismiss, but they play a big role in elections.

[DrScholl]

I doubt any Democrat wins this seat in 2014, with an incumbent in place, it would be hard to do. Plus, it's drawn for a Republican, it doesn't matter if Obama won it, it's not a Democratic seat.

[DrScholl]

I doubt any Democrat wins this seat in 2014, with an incumbent in place, it would be hard to do. Plus, it's drawn for a Republican, it doesn't matter if Obama won it, it's not a Democratic seat.

We've been over this before and I question why I continue to try, but this seat was drawn for a Republican (Bill Young). It wasn't drawn for any Republican. It's a winnable seat by any measure.

You don't need to repeat yourself, I saw what you posted before. It's certainly is a seat that is winnable for a Republican other than Bill Young, which is why it is held by a Republican right now.

[DrScholl]

I doubt any Democrat wins this seat in 2014, with an incumbent in place, it would be hard to do. Plus, it's drawn for a Republican, it doesn't matter if Obama won it, it's not a Democratic seat.

We've been over this before and I question why I continue to try, but this seat was drawn for a Republican (Bill Young). It wasn't drawn for any Republican. It's a winnable seat by any measure.

You don't need to repeat yourself, I saw what you posted before. It's certainly is a seat that is winnable for a Republican other than Bill Young, which is why it is held by a Republican right now.

I still don't see how you can take the fact a seat is held by a Republican right now and has been won by a Republican in the past and use that to say it's a Republican seat. By that logic CA-31's a Republican seat.

CA-31 went Republican because no Democrat was present in the general election, that's not that case with FL-13. FL-13 is R+2, CA-31 is D+6, that's a big difference. Democrats can win R+2 seats, but not with ease.