Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

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if the environment is right

Given both Murphy's victory in Pasco and Kriseman's current polling lead in St. Pete the environment currently doesn't seem hyper-favorable to the Rs by any stretch, though of course that could change.

Sink runs a bad campaign

Certainly a possibility for something like in 2010, though she's already raised over $130K since her announcement.

and if the Republicans can convince someone good to run.

Latvala? Brandes? Both have declined, and I'm getting the vibe that Baker won't run either.

She ain't from the district, so I'm not sure how competitive she is.

Polling has her up 17 on popular former St. Pete Mayor (and possible Romney HUD pick) Rick Baker. Feeling on the ground here in FL-13 is very pro-Sink as well.

And can we please keep this confined to one thread? I think there are 3 threads about this seat now.

Also, this. Besides, the news broke a couple days ago exclusively in the Times - the real story here is that it took the Times-Union until the 31st to pick up on it.

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Billy Young Jr. is out

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"I am thankful for the many friends who have encouraged me to run for Congress. The honor is greater because of the respect I have for Congressman Bill Young and his long and accomplished record of public service. I treasure my time as mayor and may likely  consider a return to public service at some point - but not now. After much prayerful thought I have decided that I will not run for Congress at this time. I intend to focus my near term efforts on my family and my work with Bill Edwards to make our great city and state even greater.  I look forward to enthusiastically supporting the Republican nominee for this Congressional seat."

Baker is out.

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Lobbyist and former general counsel to Rep. Young David Jolly has entered the race with the backing of Beverly Young.

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Polling has Jolly leading Brickfield and Hibbard; all three GOP choices are 20 points behind Sink.

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I'm really not a fan of what Sink's doing here. Want to run for Congress? Great! The Florida Dems need strong candidates. Dennis Ross is polling behind Generic D - and his district actually has Thonotosassa in it. This just reeks of playing the game; running because you want power.

[Donerail]

I'm really not a fan of what Sink's doing here. Want to run for Congress? Great! The Florida Dems need strong candidates. Dennis Ross is polling behind Generic D - and his district actually has Thonotosassa in it. This just reeks of playing the game; running because you want power.

1. A large number of people who serve in congress and is elected do not live in the border lines of their congressional district.

Yeah. That bothers me too.

2. Alex Sink was recruited by many top Democrats, including countless others sending her messages on Facebook.

So was Ken Welch. Part of the reason he declined was “the fact that my St. Petersburg residence is not within the boundaries of the district"

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Qualifying opened today. We'll know by the end of tomorrow who the candidates will be - there's serious talk of State Rep. Kathleen Peters (R-South Pasadena) jumping into the race against Jolly.

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Okay seriously since when has Alex Sink been a white woman? For some reason, I've always been under the impression that Alex Sink was black and male. Didn't realize this correct until seeing JacobTiver's sig just now.

If it helps, I think she's 1/4 Chinese. She's a descendant of one of the original Siamese Twins.

1/8 - Chang Bunker was her great-grandfather.

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Never would've imagined that any of these people (save possibly Peters at the outside edge of the sphere of possibility) would end up being the choices.

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The Times profiles Mark Bircher

I hadn't heard of Mark Bircher before this, but he appears to have at least a bit of money and an attractive bio. Could certainly see the Tea Party (such as it is in Pinellas) getting behind him, especially in a battle between Peters (fairly moderate, Latvala-backed) and Jolly (lobbyist, backed by establishment money (Mel Sembler)).

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The Times profiles Mark Bircher

I hadn't heard of Mark Bircher before this, but he appears to have at least a bit of money and an attractive bio. Could certainly see the Tea Party (such as it is in Pinellas) getting behind him, especially in a battle between Peters (fairly moderate, Latvala-backed) and Jolly (lobbyist, backed by establishment money (Mel Sembler)).

You heard it here first: Tea Party getting behind Bircher.

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Drove through most of FL-13 today. A lot of Peters signs and a lot of Jolly ones, as well as two or three Bircher signs. No Sink presence, which is what I've been feeling for much of the campaign. I haven't seen any signs, any mailers, any events - she's either waiting until after the primary or just trying to coast on name recognition.

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In the race I worked on last year, we had a 10-1 advantage in sign presence. Name recognition should get Sink by until the general election.

True, signs don't vote, but it seems more like a symptom - I haven't heard anything out of the Sink campaign, haven't seen any volunteers walking or any events being held, or any mailers or calls or anything. Nothing much seems to be happening.

[Donerail]

In the race I worked on last year, we had a 10-1 advantage in sign presence. Name recognition should get Sink by until the general election.

True, signs don't vote, but it seems more like a symptom - I haven't heard anything out of the Sink campaign, haven't seen any volunteers walking or any events being held, or any mailers or calls or anything. Nothing much seems to be happening.

I checked out her website, and it just lists a PO Box as her address. She has an office, I'm sure, but it is not publically listed yet, so she is probably still putting the groundwork together and corralling support and donations. I'd expect her campaign to go live after the GOP primary is held.

Of course, she's just now moving into her condo from the county over. I won't be happy to have Jolly or Bircher, but Sink isn't my favorite local Dem either.

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Sink way up in fundraising.

Though, for what it's worth, Jolly is outpacing Sink in fundraising from Pinellas donors.

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New poll has Jolly up 11 on Bircher, 13 on Peters.

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It is still Gravis - but Peters is probably the strongest the Rs can put forward. Bad news for Sink.

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It is still Gravis - but Peters is probably the strongest the Rs can put forward. Bad news for Sink.

Surely Jolly is the best the Rs can get since he's the most moderate and got the Young family endorsement for what that's worth.

Jolly's not the most moderate - Jolly's been running to Peters' right, accusing her of not being willing to repeal Obamacare, being insufficiently pro-life, that kind of thing. Really more of a battle between two establishment Republicans - one of them (Peters) backed by State Sen. Jack Latvala and his associates (Sheriffs Gualtieri and Coats, State Rep. Ed Hooper, etc), the other (Jolly) backed by Beverly Young and much of the St. Pete money establishment (Mayor Baker, Mel Sembler, Gordon England). Peters' campaign is more of a 'Jolly is a DC lobbyist' than a 'I'm conservative/moderate' thing. Bircher's the Tea Party candidate, of course - neither Peters nor Jolly are that way. There's a long historical background (with Pinellas being a GOP stronghold back when the rest of Florida voted Dem giving rise to more centrist area Republicans) that explains all that.

Anyways, Jolly doesn't have the Young family - Billy Young Jr. has endorsed and done emails for Peters, while Beverly Young (unpopular since the Times did a piece on how she cut off Bill's first family after a messy divorce) is backing Jolly.

Since Tender's doing an upset prediction, may as well do my own:

Peters: 35%
Jolly: 34%
Bircher: 31%

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Ugh. Still, at least we see what happens when a Washington resident faces off against someone from Thonotosassa.

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Sabato now ranks this as Lean D, but cautions not to read too much into the result.

Too early. Honestly, I have the feeling Sink will lose.

Sink really isn't good at campaigning - we've seen that since 2010. So long as she leads in money like she does now she shouldn't be overly threatened, but I'd expect that to change post-primary.

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As someone in its titular city, St. Pete Polls has been very reliable, especially on the State House, County Commission, Sheriff, Mayoral and City Council races. It seems that the only junk results that you're pulling out are from outside of Tampa Bay - since this is a Pinellas race I'd expect they'll do a lot better (which would seem to match their track record).

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Beverly Young had some things to say about the Tampa Bay Times on FB.

That's an understatement.

And she'll continue to be in the news - word is that her son will be running for State House.

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The Libertarian candidate (Lucas Overby) will be in the debate held on Feb. 3rd at 7 pm - nationally televised on C-SPAN.

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Heard Jolly on the radio doing an interview with WUSF yesterday. He seemed articulate and knowledgable - proposing solutions and all that.