Need help (NC voter demographics)

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Lately I've been working on a President Forever scenario of the 2008 Senate election in North Carolina.  There are too many counties for me to program, so I reduced them to six regions based on the map below.  Would any of the expert mapmakers here (looking at you, Miles ) give me a brief overview of each region and how they vote locally and nationally, please?  That would help me a lot in determining how competitive each region is.

Thanks in advance!

[Miles]

Ok, I'll try to do this without crunching any numbers

 Basically:

Northeastern:

The outer coastal counties are trending R while the inner counties are mostly black-majority. Federally, this is probably close with the state as a whole. The two biggest population centers are:

- Greenville in Pitt County (home to ECU). This had trended heavily D at the federal level since 2000.
- New Bern in Craven County (home of Bev Perdue, but she obviously had exceptional strength here).

Downballot, this is probably Tilt D.

The worst thing for Democrats is that Walter Jones lives here. His father is too well-respected in this area and he's too good a candidate to lose the general election.

Southeastern:

Any Democrat in the mold of McIntyre or Kissell should hold this easily. Most of the counties along the SC border swung towards Obama in 2012. Population centers:

- Fayetteville in Cumberland County. Heavily D and trending moreso. This county went for Bush in 2004 but Obama was pushing 60% here in 2012.

- Wilmington in New Hanover County. Overall, this county is a few notches to the right of the state.

- Lumberton in Robeson County. This county is home to the Lumbee tribe. The county is decently D at the federal level, but heavily D locally.

- Jacksonville in Onslow County. Camp Lejuene is located here, so the Democrat would need to be make military issues a top priority (as McIntyre does). The presence of Onslow and neighboring Carteret Counties drags the fundamentals of this district a few points to the right.

North Central:

Triangle + heavily black counties = Safe D and nearly all counties here are trending that way.

The only significant bastion of Republican strength here is Johnston County.  

Northwestern:

Hmmm...The Triad provides a counterbalance to the heavily R Piedmont/mountain counties. FDR couldn't even crack some of those mountain counties here. The area is ancestrally R, so ticket splitting doesn't particularly benefit Ds. Probably Tilt R normally; both Hagan and Burr are from this district.

Southwestern:

Mecklenburg County and those smaller D-friendly counties along the SC border likely aren't enough to cancel out all the suburban/exurban Charlotte counties. Tilt/Lean R.

Western:

Basically the same thing as the old 11th. Obama lost it 47-52 in 2008 but feLl to 44-54 in 2012. Shuler would hold this down pretty easily. Some Democrats that could make this competitive if he didn't run: Walter Dalton, John Snowe, Hayden Rogers, Martin Nesbitt.

Overall, Democrats would have North Central and Southeastern. Republicans would have Northwest and Southwestern. Republicans would be renting the eastern one with Jones, as the Democrats with Shuler in the West.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Good analysis, Miles.  Thanks again.

[StateBoiler]

Found this when doing a search. Scott, your regional borders look pretty on a map but don't represent reality if you're defining regions to go for similar area/similar demographics and political culture. The northeast should extend west further. The informal border for eastern North Carolina from the rest of the state is Interstate 95, but you can include Nash Co. and Rocky Mount and it'd still be correct. The Southeast should be split into two pieces. There should probably be a coastal region but the western part of what you call the Southeast would be the Sandhills centered around Fayetteville. Removing the eastern portion from the North Central, it should be the Raleigh-Durham metro area and to the west of that would be the Triad metro area, with its eastern border possibly Burlington. The Southwest should be a Charlotte metro area district but it would not go near as far to the northwest as you have it. The Western is fairly accurate except it would also include the northwestern corner of the state.