Ok, I'll try to do this without crunching any numbers
Basically:
Northeastern:The outer coastal counties are trending R while the inner counties are mostly black-majority. Federally, this is probably close with the state as a whole. The two biggest population centers are:
- Greenville in Pitt County (home to ECU). This had trended heavily D at the federal level since 2000.
- New Bern in Craven County (home of Bev Perdue, but she obviously had exceptional strength here).
Downballot, this is probably Tilt D.
The worst thing for Democrats is that Walter Jones lives here. His father is too well-respected in this area and he's too good a candidate to lose the general election.
Southeastern:Any Democrat in the mold of McIntyre or Kissell should hold this easily. Most of the counties along the SC border swung
towards Obama in 2012. Population centers:
- Fayetteville in Cumberland County. Heavily D and trending moreso. This county went for Bush in 2004 but Obama was pushing 60% here in 2012.
- Wilmington in New Hanover County. Overall, this county is a few notches to the right of the state.
- Lumberton in Robeson County. This county is home to the Lumbee tribe. The county is decently D at the federal level, but
heavily D locally.
- Jacksonville in Onslow County. Camp Lejuene is located here, so the Democrat would need to be make military issues a top priority (as McIntyre does). The presence of Onslow and neighboring Carteret Counties drags the fundamentals of this district a few points to the right.
North Central: Triangle + heavily black counties = Safe D and nearly all counties here are trending that way.
The only significant bastion of Republican strength here is Johnston County.
Northwestern: Hmmm...The Triad provides a counterbalance to the heavily R Piedmont/mountain counties. FDR couldn't even crack some of those mountain counties here. The area is ancestrally R, so ticket splitting doesn't particularly benefit Ds. Probably Tilt R normally; both Hagan
and Burr are from this district.
Southwestern:Mecklenburg County and those smaller D-friendly counties along the SC border likely aren't enough to cancel out all the suburban/exurban Charlotte counties. Tilt/Lean R.
Western: Basically the same thing as the old 11th. Obama lost it 47-52 in 2008 but feLl to 44-54 in 2012. Shuler would hold this down pretty easily. Some Democrats that could make this competitive if he didn't run: Walter Dalton, John Snowe, Hayden Rogers, Martin Nesbitt.
Overall, Democrats would have North Central and Southeastern. Republicans would have Northwest and Southwestern. Republicans would be renting the eastern one with Jones, as the Democrats with Shuler in the West.
