American Politics 2010s

[NHI]

Prologue: Where we Are vs. Where we've Been

"Few people—if anyone—predicted this outcome, but here it is. Terry McAuliffe is about to become governor of Virginia" -- The Daily Beast, November 2013

Terry McAuliffe Wins Virginia Gubernatorial Race

(D) Terry McAuliffee: 49.1%

(R) Ken Cuccinelli: 44.0%

(L) Robert Sarvis: 4.7%

Other: 2.2%

Chris Christie Landslide

(R) Chris Christie: 59.9%

(D) Barbara Buono: 38.6%

Other: 1.5%

“I said this to the RNC last summer, I’m in this to win, because if you don’t win, you can’t govern. If you can’t govern, you can’t move the country, the state, the city — whatever you’re running for — in the direction it needs to be moved in. I think we’ve had too many people who’ve become less interested in winning an election and more interested in winning an argument.” -- Chris Christie, November 2013

American Politics: 2010s

"You had a state representative somewhere say that it's as destructive to personal and individual liberty as the Fugitive Slave Act. Think about that." --  Barack Obama, September 2013

"I promise that I'll do everything humanly possible to try to speak for less than 21 hours," ... "You know I'm nearing to end when I bring out and begin to read 'The Cat in the Hat." Ted Cruz, September 2013

"Chris, by the way, could easily become our nominee and save our party and help get this nation on the right track again...They don't come better than Chris Christie." -- Mitt Romney November 2013

[progressive85]

This is good!

[Tayya]

NHI is back, huh. I approve of that.

[NHI]

Chapter 1: Defeating the Boogeyman

"2014 is do-or-die for the Republicans...they cannot afford weak candidates." -- The National Journal, November 2013

Mitch McConnell Defeats Tea Party Challenger, Matt Bevin

(R) Mitch McConnell: 58.7%

(R) Matt Bevin: 40.9%

Other: 0.4%

Former MA Senator Scott Brown Wins Senate Nomination in NH

(R) Scott Brown: 44.1%

(R) Rich Ashooh: 35.0%

(R) Jim Rubens: 15.6%

(R) Karen Testerman: 4.4%

Other: 0.9%

Wendy Davis Trails Gregg Abott By Single Digits Ahead of November Vote

(R) Gregg Abott: 48%

(D) Wendy Davis: 43%

Undecided: 9%

"The House is more likely than not going to stay in the GOP's hands. The Senate is clearly in play and the Party is clearly trying to win it back and avoid the disasters we've witnessed over the last four years with Sharon Angle and Todd Aiken." -- Chuck Todd, August 2014

"There are two ways the party can go, either one the way of people like Christie and Susana Martinez and other Republican governors across the country, or they can go the way of Ted Cruz and just destroy themselves again and again until the party is completely and utterly destroyed." -- Joe Scarborough, October 2014.

President Obama's Approval Rating: September 2013

Approve: 44%

Disapprove: 50%

Undecided: 6%

"2014 will be the beginning of a landslide if we don't screw it up." -- Bill Kristol, October 2014

[Senator Cris]

Great!

[NHI]

Chapter 2: We can Wins This (Part 1)

"Republicans, I'm talking about mainstream, traditional Republicans they are saying no to crazy. They are drowning out the people like Cruz and Paul, because surprisingly there are Republicans that actually want to govern and get things done." -- Joe Scarborough, November 2014

"The Great Republican Civil War, which has been ongoing since 2009 is slowly wrapping up and I think may go out with a whimper instead of a bang. Now granted it's 2014 and we don't know what lies ahead for '16." -- Bob Woodward, November 2014

"Friends, the GOP, the Grand Old Party, the Republican Establishment want this to be the election where the moderates win. Where the people who embraces the independents and disaffected Democrats win. They don't care about conservatism. They don't want it to win. That's why they've tried to silence the Tea Party in all the primaries and going back to Virginia in 2013. They don't want the Tea Party to live another day, so they can say look, look those people are crazy they can't win, and then the great GOP establishment can ride to the rescue and say we are the one who can win and we cannot nominate Christie and win back the White House. Folks, this is utter nonsense." -- Rush Limbaugh, November 2014

"I we don't win, we can't govern. If we can't govern we can't put our principles into place...I'm in this game to win, not to stand on a soapbox and shout at the wind." -- Chris Christie, November 2014

South Carolina: Tim Scott Wins Election 59%-39%

South Carolina: Lindsay Graham Reelected in Three Man Race: 55% - 40% - 4%

Virginia: Mark Warner Easily Reelected: 60% - 38%

Kentucky: McConnell Race Too Close to Call!

(R) Mitch McConnell: 51.0%

(D) Allison Lundergan Grimes: 48.5%

Georgia Senate Race: Too Close to Call

(R) Paul Broun: 51.6%

(D) Michelle Nunn: 48.2%

West Virginia: Shelly Moore Capito becomes first GOP Senator Since 1956

(R) Shelly Moore Capito: 60.0%

(D) Natalie Tennant: 39.7%

Other: 0.3%

Massachusetts: Ed Markey Wins Full Senate Term, Defeats Gomez 58% -41%

Rhode Island: Jack Reeds Reelected in Landslide: 70% - 28%

Maine: Susan Collins Wins Despite Conservative Challenge 53% - 43% - 3%

NH Senate Race: Too Close to Call

(D) Jeanne Shaheen: 50.0%

(R) Scott Brown: 48.4%

New Jersey: Cory Booker Wins Full Term: 57% - 43%

North Carolina Race Too Close to Call

(D) Kay Hagan: 50.7%

(R) Thom Tillis: 47.9%

Tennessee: Alexander Wins Despite Tea Party Challenge: 55% - 38% - 5%

Mississippi: Chris McDaniel Holds GOP Seat: 65% - 34%

Illinois: Dick Durbins Wins Reelection: 61% - 37%

Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe Wins Fourth Term: 59% - 39%

Delaware: Chris Coons Defeats Christine O'Donnell: 63% - 37%

Republican Gain 2: Cotton Beats Pryor

(R) Tom Cotton: 53.9%

(D) Mark Pryor: 45.8%

[NHI]

Chapter 2: We can Win This (Part 2)

Kansas: Pat Roberts Wins Fourth Term: 59% - 39%

Nebraska: Shane Osborne Holds Republican Seat: 60% - 39%

Republican Gain: 3 South Dakota: Mike Rounds Elected 61% - 38%

Wyoming: Mike Enzi Reelected: 73% - 27%

Colorado: Mark Udall Fights Off GOP Challenge: 52% - 46%

New Mexico: Tom Udall Wins Reelection: 53% - 47%

Texas: John Coyrn Reelected, Despite Conservative Frustrations 57% - 42%

Republican Gain 4: Steven Daines Pickups Senate Seat

(R) Steven Daines: 52.7%

(D) John Walsh: 45.9%

Iowa: Democrats Hold Iowa, Bruce Barley wins. 51% - 48%

Louisiana Race too Close to Call!

(D) Mary Landrieu: 50.3%

(R) Bill Cassidy: 48.6%

Georgia Stays with GOP

(R) Paul Broun: 52.0%

(D) Michelle Nunn: 46.8%

Michigan: Gary Peters Holds Carl Levin's Seat: 51% - 48%

Republican Gain: +4 (49)

McConnell Holds Onto Seat, Defeats Grimes

(R) Mitch McConnell: 50.9%

(D) Allison Lundergan Grimes: 48.8%

North Carolina: Hagan Wins Reelection: 50.3% - 48.0%

Minnesota: Al Franken Wins Reelection: 51% - 48%

New Hampshire: Scott Brown Becomes NH's Senator

(R) Scott Brown: 50.5%

(D) Jeanne Shaheen: 48.4%

Louisiana: Mary Landrieu Wins Reelection: 50.5% - 48.4%

Idaho: Jim Risch Wins Reelection: 60% - 39%

Oregon: Jeff Merkley Wins Reelection 50% - 48%

Hawaii: Brian Schatz Wins Election 56% - 43%

Alaska: Three-Man Race Gives Mark Begich Reelection 49% - 44% - 5%

Senate Makeup: 2014

Democrats: 50**

Republicans: 50

*Two Independents Caucus with the Democrats.
**Vice President Biden Gives Democrats 51st vote.

House Makeup: 2014

Republicans: 235

Democrats: 196

Excerpt of House Races: 2014

New Hampshire CD 1:

(R) Dan Innis: 51.0%

(D) Carol Shea Porter: 46.9%

California CD 2:

(R) Brian Bilbray: 50.4%

(D) Scott Peters: 48.8%

Excerpt of Gubernatorial Elections: 2014

Maine: Republican Hold

(R) Paul LePage: 37.7%

(D) Mike Michaund: 37.6%

(I) Elliot Culter: 23.7%

New Hampshire: Democratic Hold

(D) Maggie Hassan: 50.7%

(R) Ted Gatsas: 47.7%

Massachusetts: Republican Pickup

(R) Charlie Baker: 49.8%

(D) Martha Coakley: 48.6%

Texas: Democratic Pickup

(D) Wendy Davis: 49.5%

(R) Gregg Abott: 49.4%

Florida: Democratic Pickup

(D) Charlie Crist: 49.1%

(R) Rick Scott: 48.9%

[Tayya]

Yuck at some of these results (ME-GOV and NH-SEN) but it's certainly neither a D or an R sweep (though you're maybe bit too generous for the Republicans in the House). Eh, we'll see how it goes.

[Peter the Lefty]

Looking good!  Hope Merkley gets re-elected in a landslide

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Yuck on all the establishment GOP when the the Tea Party kids would landslide.

[badgate]

New Hampshire: Scott Brown Becomes NH's Senator

(R) Scott Brown: 50.5%

(D) Jeanne Shaheen: 48.4%

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yuck on all the establishment GOP when the the Tea Party kids would landslide.

More like the other way around.

[free my dawg]

New Hampshire: Scott Brown Becomes NH's Senator

(R) Scott Brown: 50.5%

(D) Jeanne Shaheen: 48.4%

We're talking about surprise pickups, not ones we want to happen.

[Flake]

Yuck on all the establishment GOP when the the Tea Party kids would landslide.

Yes the anti-gay-obama-was-born-in-kenya-is-a-muslim-wants-sharia-law-and-white-slavery-antichrist-and-democrats-want-to-destroy-america-and-force-everyone-to-get-gay-married-and-convert-to-islam Republicans would win.

Definitely.

[NHI]

Chapter 3: The A-Team

"The 2014 midterms surely showed the mainstream Republican regain a lot of momentum, but the outcomes did not weaken the Tea Party resolve, in fact it only strengthened it." -- Chuck Scott, January 2015

"There are bit players in the Republican Primary. People who are as I like to call it background noise. People like Rick Santorum, Ben Carson, Peter King and Rick Perry. The headliners who actually had a shot at the nomination weighted their time." -- Joe Scarborough, March 2015

"Our Party is floating a drift, abandoning our principles and choosing politics over policy. Our country is becoming a distant memory of what it once was; we are no longer the shining city on a hill and that my fellow citizens must change, and it will change if we elect a true conservative in November 2016." -- Ted Cruz, March 2015

"Today I announce my intention to run for President of the United States. I seek the nomination not for grandstanding, but to win and to win the election, because in 2017 a Republican must take office as the next President of the United States." -- Rand Paul, April 2015

"To restore American greatness, we need to elect a President who understands free enterprise, respects the Constitution and institutes policies to put Americans back to work and ensure a brighter and prosperous future for ourselves, our children and their children." -- Marco Rubio, May 2015

"I want to lead our party in a direction that will once again make us a big tent party. We cannot expect to win elections if we only appeal to the narrowest majorities." -- Bobby Jindal, May 2015

Dark Horses: Walker, Pence and Haley

Chris Christie Steps Down as Governor of NJ to run for President

"...I announce my candidacy for President of the United States. I am in this race to win and to take what we have done in New Jersey and go to Washington, DC and make that city work again, so that we can get America working again." -- Chris Christie, September 2015

"Talk to early presidential state or Washington operatives and you hear the same thing over and over about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s presidential prospects: He’s the second coming of Rudy Giuliani." -- Politico, 2014

"...To win again--to make America great and growing again--requires a return to the spirit and substance of Eisenhower and Reagan. We Republicans will not win national elections if we do not broaden our appeal in the way these giants did. Nor will we govern well if we refuse to make principled compromises when necessary, the kinds of compromises that led Ike and Reagan to historical greatness." -- Joe Scarborough

Republican Primary Poll:

Chris Christie: 23%

Ted Cruz: 16%

Rand Paul: 16%

Marco Rubio: 14%

Scott Walker: 9%

Mike Pence: 6%

Nikki Haley: 5%

Ben Carson: 4%

Rick Perry: 1%

Rick Santorum: 1%

"To date and unless she announces otherwise, Hillary Clinton remains the most formidable presidential nomination frontrunner for a non-incumbent in the modern era. If she runs she wins the nomination and heads into the general election, almost as defacto President." -- Chuck Todd, August 2015

[NHI]

Chapter 4: The Anti-Hillary

"I'm running for President because I want to keep moving America forward, to a future of higher incomes for the middle class, for green technologies, for a stronger economy for a better tomorrow, and I ask for you to stand to with me." -- Martin O'Malley, June 2015

"...America is not a dynasty. We should not be having the same political families or the media chosen elites running this country. America belongs to all of us, to people everywhere and it is time we got back to that basic premise of a government for, by and of we the people." -- Brian Schweitzer, July 2015

"I will not be a candidate for the Democratic nomination. I'm afraid my time has come and gone, and I'm okay with it." -- Joe Biden, August 2015

She's In!

"I announce my candidacy for President of the United States." -- Hillary Clinton September 2015

Democratic Primary Poll:

Hillary Clinton: 64%

Martin O'Malley: 25%

Brian Schweitzer 10%

General Election Polls: Hillary

Hillary Clinton: 49%

Chris Christie: 43%

Hillary Clinton: 53%

Ted Cruz: 36%

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Rand Paul: 39%

Hillary Clinton: 51%

Marco Rubio: 37%

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Scot Walker: 38%

Hillary Clinton: 50.4%

Generic Republican: 38.6%

Battleground Polls: Ohio

Hillary Clinton: 47%

Chris Christie: 45%

Hillary Clinton: 55%

Ted Cruz: 36%

Hillary Clinton: 51%

Rand Paul: 39%

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Marco Rubio: 40%

Hillary Clinton: 49%

Scott Walker: 41%

General Election Polls: O'Malley

Chris Christie: 49%

Martin O'Malley: 43%

Martin O'Malley: 46%

Ted Cruz: 41%

Martin O'Malley: 44%

Rand Paul: 42%

Martin O'Malley: 44%

Marco Rubio: 44%

Martin O'Malley: 45%

Scott Walker: 45%

Martin O'Malley: 44.4%

Generic Republican: 44.2%

Battleground Polls: Ohio

Chris Christie: 47%

Martin O'Malley: 44%

Martin O'Malley: 48%

Ted Cruz: 39%

Martin O'Malley: 47%

Rand Paul: 45%

Marco Rubio: 46%

Martin O'Malley: 45%

Martin O'Malley: 44%

Scott Walker: 44%

General Election Poll: Schweitzer

Chris Christie: 50%

Brian Schweitzer: 40%

Brian Schweitzer: 43%

Ted Cruz: 39%

Rand Paul: 43%

Brian Schweitzer: 43%

Marco Rubio: 45%

Brian Schweitzer: 43%

Scott Walker: 44%

Brian Schweitzer: 44%

Generic Republican: 44.2%

Brian Schweitzer: 42.6%

Battleground Polls: Ohio

Chris Christie: 51%

Brian Schweitzer: 42%

Brian Schweitzer: 48%

Ted Cruz: 43%

Brian Schweitzer: 43%

Rand Paul: 42%

Marco Rubio: 45%

Brian Schweitzer: 45%

Scott Walker: 44%

Brian Schweitzer: 40%

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans

Ted Cruz: 20%

Rand Paul: 20%

Marco Rubio: 17%

Chris Christie: 16%

Mike Pence: 13%

Scott Walker: 5%

Ben Carson: 4%

Nikki Haley: 2%

Bobby Jindal: 1%

Rick Santorum: 1%

Rick Perry: Endorsement Pending

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 60%

Martin O'Malley: 25%

Brian Schweitzer: 13%

New Hampshire Primary: Republicans:

Chris Christie: 24%

Rand Paul: 22%

Ted Cruz: 17%

Marco Rubio: 14%

Mike Pence: 11%

Scott Walker: 5%

Bobby Jindal: 3%

Nikki Haley: 2%

Ben Carson: 2%

Rick Santorum: 1%

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 61%

Martin O'Malley: 19%

Brian Schweitzer: 17%

[NHI]

Chapter 5: The Tea Party Strikes Back

"Nominating Chris Christie is a suicidal pact for the Republican Party. We need to offer a clear alternative and Governor Christie offers no difference than Hillary Clinton in my view. He's a big government Republican." -- Rand Paul, December 2015

"Senator Paul has never governed. He shouts. Shouting at the wind will not give up back the White House. We need to be pragmatic, we need to reach out to voters and worry about winning, because if we don't win we don't govern." -- Chris Christie, December 2015

"This party needs to redefine itself in order to win again! We need to redefine our conservatism to fit with our country. This is a center-right nation and if we are able to take that message to the streets we will win and we will big. The people want straight talkers, they want the truth. Let us be that party again." -- Scott Walker, December 2015

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans (December)

Ted Cruz: 20%

Scott Walker: 18%

Chris Christie: 16%

Mike Pence: 15%

Rand Paul: 13%

Marco Rubio: 10%

Ben Carson: 3%

Bobby Jindal: 2%

Rick Santorum: 1%

Nikki Haley:Endorsed Chris Christie

Rick Perry:Endorsed Scott Walker

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats (December)

Hillary Clinton: 59%

Martin O'Malley: 21%

Brian Schweitzer: 17%

New Hampshire Primary: Republicans (December)

Chris Christie: 23%

Rand Paul: 18%

Scott Walker: 18%

Ted Cruz: 13%

Marco Rubio: 9%

Mike Pence: 7%

Bobby Jindal: 3%

Ben Carson: 3%

Nikki Haley: 2%

Rick Santorum: 1%

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats (December)

Hillary Clinton: 62%

Martin O'Malley: 18%

Brian Schweitzer: 18%

"I reject the notion that I'm not a conservative. I'm a conservative governor who is pragmatic who cares not about lecturing, but about governing. I am in this election to win. I can build a coalition to win back the White House. I'm looking to move past our nation's liberal-conservative divide. I'm an outsider. I bring a different perspective to Washington which is getting things done!" -- Chris Christie, January 2016

Iowa Caucuses: January 2016 (Republicans) 1% Reporting

Ted Cruz: 20.77%

Scott Walker: 19.49%

Chris Christie: 15.33%

Mike Pence: 14.60%

Rand Paul: 12.00%

Marco Rubio: 10.09%

Ben Carson: 3.00%

Rick Santorum: 1.99%

Bobby Jindal: 1.07%

Other: 1.66%

Iowa Caucuses: Hillary Clinton Projected Winner

Iowa Caucuses: January 2016 (Democrats) 1% Reporting

Hillary Clinton: 59.77%

Martin O'Malley: 25.91%

Brian Schweitzer: 14.00%

Other: 0.32%

Iowa Caucuses: Ted Cruz Projected Winner

Iowa Caucuses: January 2016 (Republicans) 69% Reporting

Ted Cruz: 21.18%

Scott Walker: 20.85%

Chris Christie: 15.98%

Mike Pence: 15.97%

Marco Rubio: 10.41%

Rand Paul: 10.39%

Ben Carson: 2.01%

Rick Santorum: 1.07%

Bobby Jindal: 1.00%

Other: 1.14%

"Our win in the caucuses show that the party doesn't want to lose another election." -- Ted Cruz, January 2016

General Election Polls:

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Chris Christie: 43%

Hillary Clinton: 51%

Scott Walker: 40%

Hillary Clinton: 56%

Ted Cruz: 36%

Hillary Clinton: 53%

Rand Paul: 39%

Hillary Clinton: 54%

Mike Pence: 38%

Hillary Clinton: 51%

Marco Rubio: 41%

Hillary Clinton: 52.3%

Generic Republican: 39.7%

[RedPrometheus]

Great timeline! Can't wait for an update!

[Brewer]

Great timeline! Can't wait for an update!

[NHI]

Chapter 6: Lines in the Sand

"It's simple: If Republicans want to win again, then I should be the nominee. If they want to keep losing, then nominate Cruz. Now what makes me qualified to say I can win?I got 60 percent of the vote in New Jersey, the bluest of the blue states. I won Hispanics, I won women, I built a coalition of pragmatism and effective conservative governing and I won big. I did it in New Jersey. Now what some of my friends in this primary fail to understand is that conservative does not have to be fire and brimstone. It's not about moderation, it's about personality. It's about being able to work with the other side, while holding onto your principles and being able to get the job done. What I've done in Trenton, I want to do for America." -- Chris Christie, February 2016

"Christie bet his whole campaign on the notion that Republicans would rally around him in the end, in a way that they did with Romney and McCain, by appealing to the argument of I can win, I'm the most electable. However, unlike Romney or McCain Christie had a great record that showed he could win where Republicans needed to win. Needless to say it was still a gamble." -- Chuck Todd, March 2016

Republicans Heading into New Hampshire

Chris Christie

Ted Cruz

Scott Walker

Rand Paul

Mike Pence

Marco Rubio

Ben Carson

"Governor Christie argues that we conservatives have to settle. Well we've been settling. We shouldn't have to settle. The Democrats certainly aren't settling. So let's nominate the most conservative candidate, that can win and that man is Ted Cruz." -- Sarah Palin, February 2016 (Endorsing Ted Cruz)

"In this race aside from myself only two other people should be the nominee and are best qualified to be President and that is Chris Christie and Mike Pence. Now what unites all of us? We're governors? We know what it takes. We understand leadership. We understand how to get things done." -- Scott Walker, February 2016

"This is our moment Democrats, to keep moving our country forward and I stand ready to lead our country and ensure that we keep moving forward." -- Hilary Clinton, February 2016

"The Democratic Race is already a foregone conclusion. It's Hillary! Hilary! Hillary!" -- James Carville, February 2016 (Following Iowa Caucuses)[/i]

New Hampshire: Chris Christie Wins Primary

New Hampshire Primary: (Republicans)

Chris Christie: 27.0%

Mike Pence: 18.1%

Scott Walker: 15.5%

Ted Cruz: 14.4%

Rand Paul: 10.5%

Marco Rubio: 9.9%

Ben Carson: 3.6%

Other: 1.0%

New Hampshire: Hillary Clinton 2-2, Wins Primary

New Hampshire Primary: (Democrats)

Hillary Clinton: 62.9%

Brian Schweitzer: 22.5%

Martin O'Malley: 14.4%

Other: 0.2%

South Carolina Poll: Republicans

Ted Cruz: 26%

Chris Christie: 23%

Scott Walker: 17%

Marco Rubio: 13%

Rand Paul: 9%

Mike Pence: 8%

Ben Carson: 2%

Florida Poll: Republicans

Marco Rubio: 29%

Chris Christie: 24%

Ted Cruz: 17%

Scott Walker: 10%

Mike Pence: 10%

Rand Paul: 7%
Ben Carson: 1%

Michigan Poll: Republicans

Chris Christie: 26%

Scott Walker: 25%

Mike Pence: 24%

Ted Cruz: 15%

Rand Paul: 7%

Ben Carson: 1%

Illinois Poll: Republicans

Chris Christie: 29%

Scott Walker: 24%

Mike Pence: 23%

Ted Cruz: 16%

Rand Paul: 5%

Ben Carson: 1%

Ohio Poll: Republicans

Chris Christie: 26%

Scott Walker: 26%

Mike Pence: 25%

Ted Cruz: 14%

Rand Paul: 7%

Ben Carson: 1%

Clinton/O'Malley? It could Happen.

Gov. O'Malley drops out, endorses Clinton. "Best prepared. A leader. I'm ready for Hillary. America's ready!"

"Martin O'Malley was never going to be the nominee. He knew it and his campaign knew it. His 2016 run to be Vice President." -- Chuck Todd, March 2016

General Election Poll:

Hillary Clinton: 49%

Chris Christie: 44%

Hillary Clinton: 51%

Mike Pence: 38%

Hillary Clinton: 55%

Ted Cruz: 35%

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Marco Rubio: 40%

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Scott Walker: 39%

Hilary Clinton: 51.0%

Generic Republican: 39.2%

Hillary Clinton: 272

Republican: 206

[badgate]

I just noticed that you gave Wendy Davis a narrow win. YAY.

[NHI]

Chapter 7: Victory or Die

"Conservatives and traditional Republicans are never going to be satisfied. Both sides have different issues that matter and what something that does not exist. I mean you nominate someone like Colin Powell, conservatives cry foul and you nominate someone like Goldwater the main street Republicans sit out. What unites both sides is a candidate and Reagan did that, Ike did that, Nixon did that. It wasn't about policy, but personality." -- Joe Scarborough, March 2016

Christie Wracks up Endorsements

Excerpt of Endorsement:

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)
Sen. Scott Brown (R-NH)
Sen. John Thune (R-SD)
Sen. Orin Hatch (R-UT)
Sen. John Coyrn (R-TX)
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC)
Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA)
Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY)
Rep. Dan Innis (R-NH)
Rep. Gary Lambert (R-NH)
Rep. Aaron Schock (R-IL)
Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA)
Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)
Gov. Susana Martinez (R-NM)
Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA)
Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV)
Gov. Rick Synder (R-MI)
Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC)
Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN)
Frm. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Frm. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)

"We don't have to settle in '16. We need to draw a bold contrast between ourselves and Hillary Clinton; not nominate someone who'd rather rub elbows with her and her husband then fight for the causes we believe in." -- Ted Cruz, February 2016 (Eve of South Carolina Primary)

South Carolina: Hillary Clinton Presumptive Nominee

South Carolina Primary: Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 77.5%

Brian Schweitzer: 22.0%

Other: 0.5%

Brian Schweitzer Ends Bid for President

"The problem with Brian Schweitzer was he was never able to have a moment where he could catch Hillary Clinton off balance. He didn't have enough appeal to draw votes from Hillary on the left and he certainly wasn't able to capture lightning in a bottle like Barack Obama did in 2008, in part because there was no big issue to distinguish himself from Hillary on, like Iraq was for Obama." -- Chuck Todd, February 2016

South Carolina: Ted Cruz Wins Primary

South Carolina Primary: Republicans

Ted Cruz: 23.0%

Chris Christie: 19.9%

Scott Walker: 17.4%

Mike Pence: 13.6%

Marco Rubio: 12.3%

Rand Paul: 9.1%

Ben Carson: 3.0%

Other: 1.7%

[RedPrometheus]

Great, realistic and exciting. The best 2016 timeline I've seen so far.

[NHI]

Chapter 8: Cracks in the Armor

Sen. Bernie Sanders: Not sold yet on Clinton Nomination

"...I have a great deal of respect and admiration for Mrs. Clinton. We served in the Senate together and while I did not know her well, I admired her, and I think she is extremely qualified to be President, but that doesn't mean I'm in lock-step with the Democratic Party. I have some serious reservations or questions that I need addressed. We need to champion progressive causes, like standing up for working families and fighting the greed from Wall Street that still taints our politics...I have always said I don't plan to run for President, unless I thought I could win, but I don't close any doors either, because this country could benefit from having a real discussion and battle of ideas, than the simple Republican-Democrat message which is often blurred." -- Bernie Sanders, March 2016

Rumored Clinton VP Short-list:

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D-MT)
Mayor Julian Castro (D-TX)
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA)
Sen. Angus King (I-ME)

Republican Primary Poll: March 2016

Chris Christie: 25%

Ted Cruz: 22%

Scott Walker: 17%

Mike Pence: 15%

Marco Rubio: 11%

Rand Paul: 7%

Other/Undecided: 3%

Florida: Marco Rubio Wins Florida By a Razor Margin

Florida Primary: Republicans

Marco Rubio: 27.9%

Chris Christie: 27.0%

Ted Cruz: 18.8%

Scott Walker: 11.4%

Mike Pence: 7.1%

Rand Paul: 6.6%

Other: 1.0%

"When you win your home state by less than one percent you're in trouble. That is more than the sign of a campaign in trouble, that's a campaign dead and buried. If anything this is a great night for Chris Christie. He's like Bill Clinton and not that I want to draw comparisons, but this is similar to the comeback kid moment in New Hampshire back in ' 92." -- Joe Scarborough, March 2016

Michigan Primary: Chris Christie Scores Big Win

Michigan Primary: Republicans

Chris Christie: 28.9%

Scott Walker: 22.4%

Mike Pence: 16.7%

Marco Rubio: 14.6%

Ted Cruz: 11.0%

Rand Paul: 5.2%

Other: 1.2%

Rubio Backs Christie, Calls on Republicans 'To unite Around Christie'

"The fact that you've got Scott Walker and Mike Pence in the same race and from the same area is the reason Christie was able to walk away with such a decisive win. I think this helps setup the race as we all thought it would be: Christie v. Cruz." -- Chuck Todd, March 2016

Palin: Now is not the time to compromise. Vote for a true conservative!

"Sarah Palin is pushing the anti-establishment argument and trying to draw on the comparisons of McCain and Romney and tie it all to Christie. 'This guy is too moderate. This guy is not a conservative. This guy will compromise with the Democrats. You can't trust him.' Whether this works, we'll wait and see." -- Brit Hume, March 2016

Republican Primary Poll:

Chris Christie: 32%

Ted Cruz: 27%

Scott Walker: 21%

Rand Paul: 14%

Mike Pence: No endorsement yet.

Other: 6%

General Election: Clinton v. Republicans

Hillary Clinton: 49%

Chris Christie: 45%

Hillary Clinton: 55%

Ted Cruz: 36%

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Scott Walker: 39%

Hillary Clinton: 51%

Rand Paul: 39%

Hillary Clinton: 51.3%

Generic Republican: 39.8%

General Election: Three-way Race

Hillary Clinton: 48%

Chris Christie: 46%

Bernie Sanders: 4%

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Chris Christie: 44%

Conservative Candidate: 5%

Excerpt of Battleground State Polls:

Ohio: +3

Hillary Clinton: 49%

Republican: 46%

Pennsylvania: +5

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Republican: 45%

New Hampshire: +7

Hillary Clinton: 51%

Republican: 44%

Florida: +1

Hillary Clinton: 48%

Republican: 47%

Virginia: +4

Hillary Clinton: 49%

Republican: 45%

Arkansas: +6

Republican: 50%

Hillary Clinton: 44%

[NHI]

Chapter 9: Walking Away

Walker Ends Bid, Backs Christie

Nevada Caucuses: Republican

Chris Christie: 39.0%

Ted Cruz: 34.9%

Rand Paul: 26.1%

Other: 0.9%

"The race was always going to be Christie versus the conservative candidate, and the thought of the Christie campaign was that Republicans would rally around as the most electable candidate." -- Chuck Todd, March 2016

Clinton: "There is no difference between Christie or Cruz."

Missouri Caucuses: Republican

Ted Cruz: 37.1%

Chris Christie: 34.4%

Rand Paul: 27.5%

Other: 1.0%

Colorado Caucuses: Republican

Chris Christie: 46.1%

Ted Cruz: 34.3%

Rand Paul: 18.5%

Other: 1.1%

Minnesota Caucuses: Republican

Chris Christie: 41.9%

Rand Paul: 39.7%

Ted Cruz: 18.3%

Other: 0.1%

Arizona Primary: Republican

Chris Christie: 50.7%

Ted Cruz: 36.6%

Rand Paul: 11.8%

Other: 0.9%

Christie: 'We have the momentum'

Maine Caucuses: Republican

Chris Christie: 53.1%

Rand Paul: 30.0%

Ted Cruz: 16.0%

Other: 0.9%

Delaware Primary: Republican

Chris Christie: 60.8%

Ted Cruz: 21.9%

Rand Paul: 18.3%

Sanders: Independent Bid 'Still on the table'

"I am weighing my options. I do not intend to be a spoiler and if I run it is to win...but frankly the American people deserve a real dialogue about the issues facing the country."

Republican Delegate Count:

Chris Christie: 195 (47.5%)

Ted Cruz: 114 (28.9%)

Rand Paul: 45 (18.6%)

Marco Rubio: 50

Paul Backs Cruz: "Keep Fighting the fight."

Super Tuesday:

Chris Christie:
NJ
79% - 20%
MD
60% - 30%
DC
65% - 33%
RI
70% - 29%
VT
75% - 24%
MA
77% - 22%
IN
54% - 45%
WI
51% - 48%
NM
59% - 39%
OR
60% - 39%
AK
50% - 49%
VA
54% - 45%
WA
57% - 42%
NY
69% - 31%
TN
50% - 49%
ND
51% - 47%
SD
51% - 48%
HI
65% - 34%

Ted Cruz
WV
54% - 45%
MS
57% - 42%
AL
60% - 39%
GA
55% - 45%
OK
60% - 39%
KY
54% - 45%
NE
56% - 43%

Walker: "Time for Cruz to face reality."

Cruz Suspends Campaign; Does Not Endorse Christie

"I am ending my campaign, but I am not offering an endorsement yet. I have a lot of reservations about Governor Christie and I see no reason to compromise my principles and to disenfranchise the millions of people who have supported conservatives like myself and refuse to settle, not again, not this time." -- Ted Cruz April, 2016

Christie The Presumptive Nominee

General Election Poll:

Hillary Clinton: 49%

Chris Christie: 44%

Third Party Challengers: Cruz

Clinton: 50%

Christie: 46%

Cruz: 3%

Sanders:

Clinton: 49%

Christie: 45%

Sanders: 1%

Sanders and Cruz:

Clinton: 46%

Christie: 45%

Cruz: 2%

Sanders: 1%