Tender Branson's MEGA Election 2012 Chart (Population, Turnout, VAP, VEP, etc.)

[Tender Branson]

Check it out (right-click for huge version):



Now that the American Community Survey data for 2012 is out, I was finally able to create this chart using all the 2012 data, for example the 18+ non-citizen population data for each state.

Some strange findings:

* DC and Michigan were the only states in 2012 that had MORE registered voters than there were ELIGIBLE voters in the state, according to Census Bureau data.

DC can probably be explained because there are many overseas registered voters which have their residence in DC.

But Michigan ? I think there have to be dead people on the voter register list, or people who moved out of the state who are still on the list in Michigan ...

Also, there are 30 million American citizens who are eligible to vote, but not registered. Most of them in California.

Arizona is the worst state in relative terms, when it comes to registering eligible voters: Arizona did only register 70% of its eligible voting population ahead of the 2012 election.

WY actually is lowest, but WY has same-day registration, so their number cannot be used.

Other than the DC and MI flukes, Colorado did the best job in registering eligible voters: 99%.

[Tender Branson]

Some other interesting stuff:

* CA had the most voting-age non-citizens (17.4%), WV was the most "American" (0.8%)

* DC had the highest share of people aged 18+ (82.7%), while UT had the lowest (68.9%)

* VT had the highest VEP percentage (almost 79%), with CA the lowest (62.6%) - almost 4/10 Californians cannot vote because they are either too young or no citizens.

* MN basically leads all turnout-related rankings (in terms of overall population, VAP, VEP) - while HI and TX have always the lowest turnout.

* When it comes to RV turnout (turnout based on registered voters in each state), WY does best, followed by Wisconsin actually. West Virginia is dead last in RV turnout. Only 53.8% of West Virginia's registered voters voted in 2012.

[Tender Branson]

If anyone wants the sortable Excel-file, just PM me.

[7,052,770]

Fascinating stuff. Did you include that felons can't vote in many (most?) states in your analysis?

[Tender Branson]

Fascinating stuff. Did you include that felons can't vote in many (most?) states in your analysis?

Nope because A) I want a uniform standard for all states and B) the data for felons is already old and C) the laws in each state are different and complicated (I guess), so not the whole felon-data may apply ...

[greenforest32]

Also, there are 30 million American citizens who are eligible to vote, but not registered. Most of them in California.

Arizona is the worst state in relative terms, when it comes to registering eligible voters: Arizona did only register 70% of its eligible voting population ahead of the 2012 election.

WY actually is lowest, but WY has same-day registration, so their number cannot be used.

Other than the DC and MI flukes, Colorado did the best job in registering eligible voters: 99%.

It matches up in the chart but these numbers are just so surprising. An opt-in voter registration system reaching 90%+ of eligible voters? When the Oregon Secretary of State proposed that automatic voter registration bill earlier this year, the main rationale for it was that it would increase the percentage of eligible voters that were registered to vote from the mid-70% range to the low-90% range.

I don't understand how so many states are hitting 95% in that VEP/RV% column. What are they doing, or, are we not doing?

[Tender Branson]

Also, there are 30 million American citizens who are eligible to vote, but not registered. Most of them in California.

Arizona is the worst state in relative terms, when it comes to registering eligible voters: Arizona did only register 70% of its eligible voting population ahead of the 2012 election.

WY actually is lowest, but WY has same-day registration, so their number cannot be used.

Other than the DC and MI flukes, Colorado did the best job in registering eligible voters: 99%.

It matches up in the chart but these numbers are just so surprising. An opt-in voter registration system reaching 90%+ of eligible voters? When the Oregon Secretary of State proposed that automatic voter registration bill earlier this year, the main rationale for it was that it would increase the percentage of eligible voters that were registered to vote from the mid-70% range to the low-90% range.

I don't understand how so many states are hitting 95% in that VEP/RV% column. What are they doing, or, are we not doing?

Maybe same day registration.

And maybe some states just have a more efficient voter registration info system or better coordinated drives.

Do states with internet registration rank any better here ?

[greenforest32]

Also, there are 30 million American citizens who are eligible to vote, but not registered. Most of them in California.

Arizona is the worst state in relative terms, when it comes to registering eligible voters: Arizona did only register 70% of its eligible voting population ahead of the 2012 election.

WY actually is lowest, but WY has same-day registration, so their number cannot be used.

Other than the DC and MI flukes, Colorado did the best job in registering eligible voters: 99%.

It matches up in the chart but these numbers are just so surprising. An opt-in voter registration system reaching 90%+ of eligible voters? When the Oregon Secretary of State proposed that automatic voter registration bill earlier this year, the main rationale for it was that it would increase the percentage of eligible voters that were registered to vote from the mid-70% range to the low-90% range.

I don't understand how so many states are hitting 95% in that VEP/RV% column. What are they doing, or, are we not doing?

Maybe same day registration.

And maybe some states just have a more efficient voter registration info system or better coordinated drives.

Do states with internet registration rank any better here ?

Right; I could get same-day registration. But if we're only going to hit 91-93% with automatic registration (arguably more efficient than same-day registration), how does a state like Indiana without same-day registration hit 95%? It's weird.

It could be online registration but I'm not sure. These are the states with it: http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/electronic-or-online-voter-registration.aspx

Oregon's and Oklahoma's numbers are very similar in your chart while we have online voter registration (since early 2010) and Oklahoma does not.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan? Many people have moved out and not been removed from voter rolls, or are 'temporarily' away. Many Michigan voters may be voting from winter homes in Florida or have taken short-term jobs elsewhere with the intent of returning to Michigan. Of course the Michigan economy is a mess. The weather often gets nasty in Michigan in late October. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Those Wyoming numbers are just screwed up.

[Mr. Morden]

Some of these cases of high registered voters / eligible voters ratios (especially Michigan, lol!) could be people who've moved out of the state, are still on the voter rolls, and possibly even still vote absentee.  I still vote in the US (in Washington, since that was the last state I lived in), and am on the voter rolls there, but wouldn't be counted in any kind of Census count of "eligible voters", since I don't actually live in the US.  Of course, very few American citizens actually emigrate from the country altogether, but migration across state borders is common.  Many college students, for example, could be voting in states that they're not currently living in, so how would they be counted in tallies like this?

Would be interesting to see if there's a correlation between population growth and %age of the "eligible" population who's actually registered to vote.  If I'm right, then slow population growth would be correlated with high registration rates.  On the other hand, that could also just be a consequence of slow population growth meaning that the state has a large number of old people, who will on average be more likely to vote than the young.

[Mr. Morden]

In that vein, note that Arizona is the "worst in relative terms".  It's a state with quite a few transplants from other states, no?  How many of those "unregistered" people are simply recent transplants from elsewhere who are registered to vote (and possibly still voting in) whatever state they moved from?

EDIT: Also, what if, nationwide, you have a substantial portion of the population who votes very very rarely?  Say, once every ten years, or even once every twenty years.  If you have a state where there's no migration into or out of the state, they'll have very high registation fractions, simply because the rare voters are all sticking around and staying on the voting rolls, even though they practically never vote.  But if you have a high degree of migration, the rare voters who vote once a decade will be much more likely to live in states where they're not registered.