McCain vs. Clinton: FiveThirtyEight's First Forecast
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  McCain vs. Clinton: FiveThirtyEight's First Forecast
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Author Topic: McCain vs. Clinton: FiveThirtyEight's First Forecast  (Read 1353 times)
JRP1994
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« on: November 09, 2013, 10:08:58 AM »

This is the simulation result that Nate Silver ran on March 7, 2008, assuming a general election matchup between John McCain (R) and Hillary Clinton (D).

According to Silver, at that point, Clinton had a 43.9% chance of beating McCain. Here is the map:

KEY:

80% = Safe
60% = Solid
40% = Lean
Grey= Tossup



McCain 249, Clinton 213

As for the tossup states, Silver gave Clinton the following probabilities:

Florida: 46% chance of winning
Missouri: 47% chance of winning
Pennsylvania: 50% chance of winning
Michigan: 50% chance of winning (she won EXACTLY 2,500 out of 5,000 simulations).

So, what do you think? How would the race have turned out, based on Silver's map?
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Vern
vern1988
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2013, 12:12:35 PM »

With the Same events happening in 2008?
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JRP1994
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2013, 12:19:04 PM »

With the Same events happening in 2008?

Yes.
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Vern
vern1988
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2013, 12:44:51 PM »

After the economy collapsed, this would have been the map.


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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2013, 11:02:49 PM »

After the economy collapsed, this would have been the map.




Of course she would have win, but come on. I bet she would have still lost Indiana.
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Cryptic
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« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2013, 11:55:53 PM »
« Edited: November 15, 2013, 12:08:45 AM by Cryptic »

My guess.  She narrowly loses IN and NC, but wins MO and AR (if only cause of the recession).  Other than that, she wins all the other states Obama won.



Clinton: 356
McCain: 182
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2013, 01:54:59 AM »

Here's a more recent polling map of Clinton vs. McCain from June 3 2008:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html

Some very odd results there:

Arkansas: Strong D
Colorado: Barely R
Connecticut: Weak D
Delaware: Weak D
Hawaii: Barely D
Kentucky: Weak D (while Tennessee is Strong R, even though Tennessee is slightly more Dem friendly)
Louisiana: Weak R
Maryland: Weak D (No way in hell)
Michigan: Tie
North Carolina: Weak D (while Virginia is Weak R...)
Oklahoma: Weak R (See Maryland)
West Virginia: Weak D
Wisconsin: Barely R
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