This is the simulation result that Nate Silver ran on March 7, 2008, assuming a general election matchup between John McCain (R) and Hillary Clinton (D).
According to Silver, at that point, Clinton had a 43.9% chance of beating McCain. Here is the map:
KEY:
80% = Safe
60% = Solid
40% = Lean
Grey= Tossup
McCain 249, Clinton 213As for the tossup states, Silver gave Clinton the following probabilities:
Florida: 46% chance of winning
Missouri: 47% chance of winning
Pennsylvania: 50% chance of winning
Michigan: 50% chance of winning (she won EXACTLY 2,500 out of 5,000 simulations).
So, what do you think? How would the race have turned out, based on Silver's map?