Overlooked Election doomsday scenario
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process (Moderator: muon2)
  Overlooked Election doomsday scenario
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Author Topic: Overlooked Election doomsday scenario  (Read 1508 times)
SteveRogers
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« on: November 09, 2013, 06:45:58 PM »

So the constitution pretty well covers what happens if no one gets an electoral college majority in the presidential election. Under the twelfth amendment the House picks from among the top three electoral vote earners and chooses a president. The Senate similarly picks from among the top two VP candidates.

Then Section 4 of the twentieth amendment adds that:
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The problem is that congress for whatever reason has never actually done this. We don't have a legal provision for what to do if the election is thrown to the House, but then one of the candidates dies.

If it happened, Congress could pass such a law establishing how to choose a replacement. The easiest thing to do would probably be to say that the electors who voted for the deceased candidate can choose a replacement. Or you could establish some system for letting the party pick a replacement. The problem of course is that if you have, for instance, an extremely polarized Republican House and Democratic Senate, good luck passing legislation for an emergency fix that'll determine who gets to be president for the next four years.

So...

Scenario 1:
It's 2016. A razor close contest between Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie results in a 269-269 tie. Republicans narrowly maintain control of the House. The electors meet in December and cast their votes. Then Chris Christie dies somehow. Does the Republican House have to elect Hillary now? What happens?

Scenario 2: 
A three-way race. Let's say we've got a strong centrist independent candidate. Let's say it's Jon Huntsman for the purposes of this hypothetical. Huntsman gets 10% of the popular vote and manages to get himself a couple electoral votes and screws up the election in the process. Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote but is just barely denied an EC majority. Democrats have the House in this scenario. Then Hillary dies suddenly. Are House Democrats stuck choosing between Christie and Huntsman? Do they go with Huntsman as the compromise candidate even though he has no claim to a popular mandate?

Scenario 3:
Same as #2 with Democrats picking the president except Christie actually won the popular vote.

See the problem?

My guess is you'd have to have some kind of grand bargain in congress (reminiscent of 1876) to pass emergency legislation to replace the candidate who died. One party would get the presidency and the other would get some major concession.
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Enderman
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2013, 07:09:46 PM »

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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2013, 11:25:45 AM »

Scenario 1: the GOP House votes for a Republican, most likely Christie's VP

Scenario 2: the Democratic House votes for a Democrat, most likely Clinton's VP

Scenario 3: the Democratic House votes for a Democrat, most likely Clinton's VP. Remember that Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000, and fat lot of difference that made.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2013, 11:32:21 AM »

Scenario 1: the GOP House votes for a Republican, most likely Christie's VP

Scenario 2: the Democratic House votes for a Democrat, most likely Clinton's VP

Scenario 3: the Democratic House votes for a Democrat, most likely Clinton's VP. Remember that Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000, and fat lot of difference that made.
The Constitution expressly limits the House's choices in the event the decision falls to them. They can't just vote for anyone they want.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2013, 01:21:54 PM »

To step back a moment from this scenario, let us consider when the electoral votes are counted. While not explicitly included in the text of the Twentieth Amendment, in a House report issued at the time concerning the debate, it indicates that the sense of the House was that a person became President-elect (or Vice President-elect) when a majority of the electoral votes was cast for em and not upon when those votes are counted.

Hence it would be consistent that in the absence of legislation providing otherwise, that when a person who is one of the choices in a contingent election dies, he remains a choice for the election, and if the dead person is chosen as President-elect, then in accordance with the twentieth amendment, when 20 January rolls around, the Vice President-elect is sworn in as President.

Congress could pass a law that stated otherwise, for example it could pass a law that would provide that if the election devolves to the House, then for each elector who cast a ballot for a dead person for the Presidency, their Vice Presidential vote would be treated as a vote for President.
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