ME-2 Goes GOP: County Map?

[JRP1994]

What might the county map in Maine look like if the Republican nominee manages to pluck the 2nd Congressional District's electoral vote from the Democratic column?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

In 2000, Bush narrowly lost ME-2 47-46, so here's the 2000 map with the closest Gore County (Aroostook) in ME-2 flipped into Bush's column.



I've also added a line separating ME-1 and ME-2.

[free my dawg]

^Hancock (the red county surrounded by blue ones in the east) was actually closer, by less than a percentage point and 250 votes. However, even flipping Aroostook (which Gore only won by 750) and Hancock would still give Gore the CD by about 4500 votes. He'd have to perform not only a smidge better in Penobscot (he'd most likely have to break fifty here), Washington, and Waldo, but he'd have to take a few votes from the rest of the state. Wouldn't be enough to knock Androscoggin or Kennebec down to D>40 though.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

^Hancock (the red county surrounded by blue ones in the east) was actually closer, by less than a percentage point and 250 votes. However, even flipping Aroostook (which Gore only won by 750) and Hancock would still give Gore the CD by about 4500 votes. He'd have to perform not only a smidge better in Penobscot (he'd most likely have to break fifty here), Washington, and Waldo, but he'd have to take a few votes from the rest of the state. Wouldn't be enough to knock Androscoggin or Kennebec down to D>40 though.

Good point, although in my scenario, I should have mentioned that the other D >40 counties in ME-2 swung R, but not enough to flip them. I also should have made some of the R counties stronger.

[free my dawg]

I gotcha. Still, might as well flip Hancock too since it's so close anyway.

[free my dawg]

For something like a 2016 scenario, the landscape changes quite a bit. Somerset, which only was close because Nader landed 5%, is now a toss-up county and becomes a must-win for the GOP. Hancock, which Nader nearly spoiled, now continues to be one of the safest counties for Democrats. They also have to win ME-2's third of Kennebec (which is very possible, but doesn't really offset any results), Waldo and Aroostook, but they also have to perform very well in their base counties of Washington, Piscataquis, and Penobscot. The rural parts won't cut it anymore, so they'd have to do well in Androscoggin.