Elections Without Thresholds

[DC Al Fine]

I thought I'd show how some elections would've turned out if a pure proportional system was used with no threshold. FTR I'm using d'Hondt method with no threshold in this calculator

First, here's this year's German election results without a threshold. Difference from actual results in parentheses.

CDU: 218 (-37)
SPD: 164 (-29)
Linke: 54 (-10)
Greens: 54 (-9)
CSU: 47 (-9)
FDP: 30 (+30)
AfD: 30 (+30)
Pirates: 14 +(14)
NPD: 8 (+8)
Free Voters: 6 (+6)
Animal Protection: 2 (+2)
ODP: 1 (+1)
Republicans: 1 (+1)
The Party: 1 (+1)

Probably another grand coalition government, but at least the FDP and AfD voters get some seats as well as the supporters of many fringe parties

[DC Al Fine]

And here's the recent Austrian election results.

SPO: 50 (-2)
OVP: 45 (-2)
FPO: 38 (-2)
Greens: 23 (-1)
Stronach: 10 (-1)
NEOS: 9 (-)
BZO: 6 (+6)
KPO: 1 (+1)
Pirates: 1 (+1)

Again, another grand coalition government. BZO holds onto a rump caucus and the KPO and Pirates each get a seat.

[DC Al Fine]

Welsh Assembly Elections 2011

Labour: 23 (-7)
Conservative: 14 (-)
Plaid Cymru: 11 (-)
Liberal Democrats: 5 (-)
UKIP: 3 (+3)
Green: 2 (+2)
Socialist Labour: 1 (+1)
BNP: 1 (+1)


A Labour-PC coalition maybe?

[fondue_knight]

Scotland 2011:

SNP: 59 (-10)
Scottish Labour: 35 (-2)
Scottish Conservative: 16 (+1)
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 7 (+2)
Scottish Greens: 5 (+3)
Scottish Senior Citizens: 2 (+2)
(Margo MacDonald) Independent: 1 (-)
UKIP: 1 (+1)
Socialist Labour: 1 (+1)
Scottish Christian: 1 (+1)
British National Party: 1 (+1)

Looks like the referendum would still have passed. SNP+Green+MacDonald. Not sure of the position of the Socialist Labour, Scottish Christian and Senior Citizens parties.

[DC Al Fine]

Norway 2013

Labour: 54 (-1)
Conservative: 48 (-1)
Progress: 29 (-1)
Christian People's: 9 (-1)
Centre: 9 (-1)
Liberal: 9
Socialist Left: 7
Green: 4 (+2)
Red: 1 (+1)
Christians: 1 (+1)

Greens get a better showing from their breakthrough. Christians (more religious right than their Christian Democratic counterparts) and Red (Commies) make it into parliament. Similar coalition to the current one.

[DC Al Fine]

Let's do some FPTP results.

Canada 1988
Progressive Conservative: 129 (-40)
Liberal: 95 (+12)
NDP: 61: (+18)
Reform: 6 (+6)
Christian Heritage: 2 +(2)
Rhino: 1 (+1)
Green: (+1)

Reform makes a decent breakthrough. Minor parties like Christian Heritage and Green make their first entries into parliament. The Rhinos (joke party) retain the seat they would've won in 1984 under PR.

Depending on how Liberal-NDP relations were, we get either a grand coalition or a Liberal-NDP government.

[DC Al Fine]

Canada 1993
Liberal: 125 (-52)
Reform: 56 (+2)
Progressive Conservative: 48 (+46)
Bloc Quebecois: 40 (-14)
NDP: 20 (+11)
National: 4 (+4)
Independent: 1 (-)
Natural Law: 1 (+1)

PC's and NDP are decimated but not nearly as badly IRL. Liberals have a tough time getting a coalition together.

[DC Al Fine]

Canada 1997

Liberal: 118 (-37)
Reform: 59 (-1)
Progressive Conservative: 57 (+37)
Bloc Quebecois: 32 (-12)
NDP: 34 (+14)
Green: 1 (+1)

Greens win their first seat ever.

[⛄]

CDU: 218 (-37)
SPD: 164 (-29)
Linke: 54 (-10)
Greens: 54 (-9)
CSU: 47 (-9)
FDP: 30 (+30)
AfD: 30 (+30)
Pirates: 14 +(14)
NPD: 8 (+8)
Free Voters: 6 (+6)
Animal Protection: 2 (+2)
ODP: 1 (+1)
Republicans: 1 (+1)
The Party: 1 (+1)

Just curious: Why is the Left the only party whose name you haven't translated into English?

[politicus]

Move to International What-ifs (or International elections) board.

[DC Al Fine]

CDU: 218 (-37)
SPD: 164 (-29)
Linke: 54 (-10)
Greens: 54 (-9)
CSU: 47 (-9)
FDP: 30 (+30)
AfD: 30 (+30)
Pirates: 14 +(14)
NPD: 8 (+8)
Free Voters: 6 (+6)
Animal Protection: 2 (+2)
ODP: 1 (+1)
Republicans: 1 (+1)
The Party: 1 (+1)

Just curious: Why is the Left the only party whose name you haven't translated into English?

No reason. it was pretty ad hoc.

Move to International What-ifs (or International elections) board.

How do I do that?

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

UK 2010
Conservatives: 241 (-66)
Labour: 193 (-65)
Liberal Democrats: 154 (+97)
UKIP: 20 (+20)
BNP: 12 (+12)
SNP: 11 (+5)
Green: 5 (+4)
Sinn Fein: 3 (-2)
DUP: 3 (-5)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (0)
SDLP: 2 (-1)
UCU-NF: 2 (+2)
English Democrats: 1 (+1)

[DC Al Fine]

Let's do some provincial elections:

New Brunswick 1991
Liberal: 28 (-18)
Confederation of Regions: 12 (+4)
Progressive Conservatives: 12 (+9)
New Democratic Party: 6 (+5)

[DC Al Fine]

Ontario 1990
New Democratic Party: 50 (-24)
Liberal: 43 (+7)
Progressive: Conservative: 31 (+11)
Family Coalition: 3 (+3)
Confederation of Regions: 2 (+2)
Green: 1 (+1)

[politicus]

Move to International What-ifs (or International elections) board.

How do I do that?

A mod will have to do it.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Israel 2013
Likud Yisrael Beiteinu: 30 (-1)
Yesh Atid: 18 (-1)
Labor: 15 (0)
Jewish Home: 12 (0)
Shas: 11 (0)
United Torah Judaism: 6 (-1)
Hatnuah: 6 (0)
Meretz: 6 (0)
United Arab List: 4 (0)
Hadash: 3 (-1)
Balad: 3 (0)
Kadima: 2 (0)
Otzma LeYisrael: 2 (+2)
Am Shalem: 1 (+1)
Ale Yarok: 1 (+1)

[Citizen Hats]

for funsies, US House, 2012

Democratic: 218 (+17)
Republican: 212 (-22)
Libertarian: 4 (+4)
Green: 1 (+1)

Which actualy

[Njall]

Alberta 2012
Progressive Conservative: 39 (-22)
Wildrose: 31 (+14)
Liberal: 8 (+3)
New Democratic Party: 8 (+4)
Alberta Party: 1 (+1)

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Canada 2011
Conservatives: 123 (-43)
NDP: 95 (-8)
Liberal: 59 (+25)
BQ: 18 (+14)
Green: 12 (+11)
Free Voters (Independents): 1 (+1)

[DC Al Fine]

Some BC elections

1991
NDP: 31 (-20)
Liberal: 26 (+9)
Social Credit: 18 (+11)

1996
Liberal: 32 (-1)
NDP: 31 (-8)
Reform: 7 (+5)
Progressive Democratic Alliance: 4 (+3)
Green:1 (+1)

2001
Liberal: 48 (-29)
NDP: 17 (+15)
Green:10 (+10)
Unity: 2 (+2)
Marijuana 2 (+2)

[Njall]

Some more Alberta elections:

Alberta 2008
Progressive Conservative: 45 (-27)
Liberal: 23 (+14)
New Democratic Party: 7 (+5)
Wildrose Alliance: 5 (+5)
Green Party: 3 (+3)

Alberta 2004
Progressive Conservative: 40 (-22)
Liberal: 25 (+9)
New Democratic Party: 8 (+4)
Alberta Alliance: 7 (+6)
Green Party: 2 (+2)
Social Credit: 1 (+1)

Alberta 2001
Progressive Conservative: 53 (-21)
Liberal: 23 (+16)
New Democratic Party: 7 (+5)

Alberta 1997
Progressive Conservative: 43 (-20)
Liberal: 28 (+10)
New Democratic Party: 7 (+5)
Social Credit: 5 (+5)

Alberta 1993
Progressive Conservative: 38 (-13)
Liberal: 34 (+2)
New Democratic Party: 9 (+9)
Social Credit: 2 (+2)

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Ontario 2003
Liberal: 49 (-23)
Progressive Conservative: 36 (+12)
NDP: 15 (+8)
Green: 3 (+3)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

BUMP

Australia 2013

ALP (34.7%): 54 (-1)
Lib (33.3%): 51 (-7)
LNP (9.3%): 14 (-8)
Green (9.0%): 13 (+12)
PUP (5.7%): 8 (+7)
Nat (4.5%): 6 (-3)
FF (1.5%): 2 (+2)
KAP (1.1%): 1 (nc)
CD (0.7%): 1 (+1)
Count Lib (0.3%): 0 (-1)

In total the Coalition would have scored 71 seats, 5 short of a majority; while an ALP-Green coalition would have 67.

So probably a minority government, with PUP in the balance of power.

The 40 senate seats up are interesting, in that under the Australian system the major parties are inflated by straight PR, the Greens and PUP are stagnant, while Xenephon, AMEP, ASP and FF find themselves in the cold.
Coalition (43.0%): 19 (+2)
ALP (34.4%): 15 (+3)
Green (9.9%): 4 (nc)
PUP (5.6%): 2 (nc)

[Bacon King]

Greece, June 2012: 250 PR seats with no threshold and 50 bonus seats for the winner:

ND: 126 (-3)
SYRIZA: 69 (-2)
PASOK: 31 (-2)
ANEL: 19 (-1)
XA: 17 (-1)
DIMAR: 16 (-1)
KKE: 11 (-1)
DX-DRASI-FS: 4 (+4)
LAOS: 4 (+4)
Greens: 2 (+2)
I Don't Pay Movement: 1 (+1)

ND-PASOK coalition still possible

Greece, June 2012: 300 PR seats with no threshold, no bonus seats:

ND: 91 (-38)
SYRIZA: 83 (+12)
PASOK: 38 (+5)
ANEL: 23 (+3)
XA: 21 (+3)
DIMAR: 19 (+2)
KKE: 13 (+1)
DX-DRASI-FS: 4 (+4)
LAOS: 4 (+4)
Greens: 2 (+2)
I Don't Pay Movement: 1 (+1)
ANTARSYA: 1 (+1)

ND + PASOK coalition would need DIMAR and at least one more minor party

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I imagine that large three-party liberal coalition could join the government, as could LAOS (who were propping up the last coalition).