Elections Without Thresholds
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CrabCake
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« Reply #25 on: December 10, 2014, 09:54:54 PM »

Spanish 2011

People's Party (45.8%): 164 (-22)

Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (29.5%): 105 (-5)

United Left (7.1%): 25 (+14)

Union, Progress and Democracy (4.8%): 17 (+12)

Convergence and Union (4.3%): 15 (-1)

Aimur (1.4%): 5 (-2)

Basque Nationalist (1.4%): 4 (-1)

Republican Left of Catalonia (1.1%): 3 (nc)

Equo (0.9%): 3 (+3)

Galican (0.8%): 2 (nc)

Canaries (0.6%): 2 (nc)

Compromise Coalition-EQUO (0.5%): 1 (nc)

Animal Rights (0.4%): 1 (+1)

Asturian Forum (0.4%): 1 (nc)

Blank (0.4%): 1 (+1) *

Andulacian (0.3%): 1 (+1)

Minority Rajoy admin, probably propped up on regionals (12 seats would be needed for a majority - lending the possibility to a Upyd-PP coalition?) In general, because most of Spain's small parties are regional, they don't gain all too much from straight PR apart from the Commies and UpyD.

* lol
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #26 on: December 10, 2014, 10:44:40 PM »

Japan 2012

Liberal Democrat: 135 (-159)
Japan Restoration: 100 (+46)
Democratic: 75 (+18)
Komeito: 58 (+17)
Your Party: 42 (+24)
Japan Communist Party: 30 (+22)
Tomorrow: 27 (+18)
Social Democrat 11 (+9)
New Party Daichi 2 (+1)

Does anyone see a workable coalition here?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #27 on: December 10, 2014, 11:17:33 PM »

The LDP-Komeito-YP coalition (the most logical on paper) would be six seats short. Any attempt to form a left-leaning alliance (and it would have to be broad enough to accommodate both JCP/SDP and YP, with Tomorrow and under the DJP) would fall far short.

I would imagine that - unless the DJP wanted an anti-LDP coalition with the JRP - the JRP would prop up an Abe government.

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YL
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« Reply #28 on: December 11, 2014, 04:31:39 PM »



The 40 senate seats up are interesting, in that under the Australian system the major parties are inflated by straight PR, the Greens and PUP are stagnant, while Xenephon, AMEP, ASP and FF find themselves in the cold.
Coalition (43.0%): 19 (+2)
ALP (34.4%): 15 (+3)
Green (9.9%): 4 (nc)
PUP (5.6%): 2 (nc)



Presumably if this system were actually being used Xenophon would stand nationally and might well get in.  On the other hand the Motoring Enthusiast and Family First are just beneficiaries of the ridiculous above the line preferencing system and I wouldn't expect them to get in under proper STV either.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #29 on: January 04, 2015, 08:35:14 AM »

Japan 2014

Liberal Democrat: 159 (-167)
Democrat: 88 (+15)
Japan Innovation: 75 (+34)
Komeito: 65 (+30)
Communist: 56 (+35)
Future Generations: 12 (+10)
Social Democrat: 11 (+9)
People's Life: 9 (+7)

Liberal Democrat + Komeito doesn't quite have a majority, so JIP would have to get involved.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #30 on: January 04, 2015, 09:20:15 AM »

Canada 1945

Liberal: 103 (-24)
Progressive Conservative: 81 (+8)
CCF: 38 (+9)
Social Credit: 10 (-3)
Bloc Populaire Canadien: 8 (+6)
Labour-Progressive: 5 (+4)

This was an interesting one. An anti-conscription party and the communist's best result. Please not that I included "Independent" in the Tory vote as there was an unusually high independent vote in that election, mostly in Quebec where the Tories were deeply unpopular. Independents in Quebec mostly didn't have Tory opponents or had token Tory opposition (<5% of the vote). However "Independent Liberals" and the like were attributed to the relevant parties

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Clyde1998
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« Reply #31 on: January 13, 2015, 08:06:33 AM »

SCOTLAND 1999
Labour - 47 (-9)
SNP - 38 (+3)
Conservative - 21 (+3)
Lib Dem - 13 (-4)
Green - 5 (+4)
Socialist Labour - 3 (+3)
Scottish Socialist - 2 (+1)
Independent - 0 (-1)

SCOTLAND 2003
Labour - 40 (-10)
SNP - 29 (+2)
Conservative - 21 (+3)
Lib Dem - 16 (-1)
Green - 9 (+2)
Scottish Socialist - 9 (+3)
Pensioners/SSCUP - 4 (+3)
Socialist Labour - 1 (+1)
Independent - 0 (-3)
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #32 on: January 13, 2015, 10:09:41 AM »

Sweden 2014:

Social Democrats - 109 (-4)
Moderates - 82 (-2)
Sweden Democrats - 45 (-4)
Greens - 24 (-1)
Centre Party - 22 (+/-)
Left Party - 20 (-1)
People's Party - 19 (+/-)
Christian Democrats -  16 (+/-)
Feminist Initiative - 11 (+11)
Pirate Party - 1 (+1)

Sweden 2010:

Social Democrats - 107 (-5)
Moderates - 105 (-2)
Greens - 26 (+1)
People's Party - 25 (+1)
Centre Party - 23 (+/-)
Sweden Democrats - 20 (+/-)
Left Party - 20 (+1)
Christian Democrats -  20 (+1)
Pirate Party - 2 (+2)
Feminist Initiative - 1 (+1)

Sweden 2006:

Social Democrats - 123 (-7)
Moderates - 92 (-5)
Centre Party - 28 (-1)
People's Party - 26 (-2)
Christian Democrats -  23 (-1)
Left Party - 20 (-2)
Greens - 18 (-1)
Sweden Democrats - 10 (+10)
Feminist Initiative - 2 (+2)
Pirate Party - 2 (+2)
Swedish Pensioners Party - 2 (+2)
June List - 2 (+2)
Health Party - 1 (+1)

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #33 on: February 03, 2015, 01:55:09 PM »

Greece 2015

Syriza: 112 (-37)
New Democracy: 85 (+9)
Golden Dawn: 19 (+2)
Potami: 18 (+1)
KKE: 16 (+1)
ANEL: 14 (+1)
PASOK: 14 (+1)
MDS: 7 (+7)
Union of Centrists: 5 (+5)
Teleia: 5 (+5)
LAOS: 3 (+3)
Antarsya: 1 (+1)
DIMAR: 1 (+1)

SYRIZA might be able to form an awkward 4-5 party coalition, but I don't see this government lasting.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #34 on: September 24, 2015, 10:52:39 AM »

UK 2015

I ignored Northern Ireland for this

Conservative: 240 (-90)
Labour: 199 (-33)
UKIP: 83 (+82)
Lib Dem: 51 (+43)
SNP: 31 (-25)
Green: 24 (+23)
Plaid: 3 (nc)

Tory-UKIP coalition seems most logical here, although that probably wouldn't work out IRL
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #35 on: September 24, 2015, 11:01:25 AM »

Alberta 2015

NDP: 36 (-19)
PC: 25 (+16)
Wildrose: 21 (nc)
Liberal: 3 (+2)
Alberta: 2 (+1)

An interesting result. PC+Wildrose seems like an obvious coalition, but the last result in 2012 would have them as sworn enemies. I don't really see the Tories supporting an NDP government, so we'd probably see an NDP minority.
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y
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« Reply #36 on: October 05, 2015, 01:02:00 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2015, 01:16:32 PM by y »

Portugal 2015

-if seats were allocated on nation-wide PR
-without the pending european and oversea-results (4 seats)

party/seats (difference)
Social-Democratic Party/ Peoples Party 93 (-11)
Socalist Party 79 (-6)
Left Bloc 24 (+5)
CDU 20 (+3)
PAN 3 (+2)
Democratic Republican Party 2 (+2)
PTCP/MRPP 2 (+2)
Livre 1 (+1)
Facists 1 (+1)
Earth Party 1 (+1)
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #37 on: October 11, 2015, 07:08:39 PM »

BC
2005
    Liberal (47.46%): 38

    NDP (43.03%): 34

    Green (9.52%): 7
 
2009
    Liberal (47.64%): 41

    NDP (43.83%): 37

    Green (8.53%): 7

2013
    Liberal (47.96%): 41

    NDP (43.20%): 37

    Green (8.84%): 7
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DavidB.
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« Reply #38 on: October 11, 2015, 09:58:54 PM »

Well, it seems my Dutch perspective is of no use in this thread... Smiley
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CrabCake
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« Reply #39 on: October 16, 2015, 09:42:07 PM »

Russia 1995 looks pretty different without constituencies and that threshold that managed to exclude 45% of the PR vote:

Communist (23.63%): 110
Lib Dem (11.85%): 55
Our Home (10.73%): 50
Yabloko (7.30%): 34
Women (4.89%): 22
Comm For Soviet (4.80%): 22
Cong4Communit. (4.57%): 21
Workers SelfGov (4.22%): 19
Democrat Choice (4.09%): 19
Agrarian (4.01%): 18
Derzhava (2.72%): 12
Forward Russia (2.06%): 9
Pwr2Ppl (1.71%): 8
Pamfilova (1.70%): 7
TradeUnions (1.64%): 7
Environment (1.39%): 6
Ivan Rybkin (1.18%): 5
Stanislaw Bloc (1.05%): 4
Fatherland (0.76%): 3
Common cause (0.72%): 3
Beer (0.66%): 3
Muslim (0.60%): 2
Transform (0.52%): 2
nat Republic (0.51%): 2
30 words (0.50%): 2
Unity and Acc (0.38%): 1
Lawyers (0.37%): 1
For Mothland (0.30%): 1
Christian Dem (0.30%): 1
38 word (0.22%): 1
Peoples (0.20%): None
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #40 on: October 17, 2015, 12:49:43 AM »

Greece, September 2015

250 seats assigned by PR, no threshold, 50 seat bonus

SYRIZA: 91 (+50) = 141 (-4)
ND: 72 (-3)
XA: 18 (nc)
PASOK-DIMAR: 16 (-1)
KKE: 14 (-1)
Potami: 10 (-1)
ANEL: 9 (-1)
EK: 8 (-1)
LAE: 7 (+7)
ANTARSYA-EEK: 2 (+2)
Others: 3 (+3)

SYRIZA-ANEL controls 50% of Parliament in this situation

300 seats assigned by PR, no threshold, no 50 seat bonus

SYRIZA: 106 (-39)
ND: 86 (+11)
XA: 21 (+3)
PASOK-DIMAR: 19 (+2)
KKE: 17 (+2)
Potami: 12 (+1)
ANEL: 11 (+1)
EK: 10 (+2)
LAE: 8 (+8)
Others: 5 (+5)

Hung parliament. No prospective coalition has a majority.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #41 on: December 18, 2015, 05:44:39 AM »
« Edited: December 18, 2015, 06:01:43 AM by CrabCake the Liberal Magician »

Poland, 2015 (Sejm)

Law and Justice (37.73%): 175 (-60)
Civic Platform (24.19%): 112 (-26)
Kukiz (8.85%): 41 (-1)
Modern (7.63%): 35 (+7)
United Left (7.58%): 35 (+35)
Polish People's (5.15%): 23 (+7)
Korwin (4.78%): 22 (+22)
Together (3.64%): 16 (+16)
Committee for ... (0.28%): 1 (+1)
German Minority (0.18%): None (-1)

231 is needed for a majority. Perhaps PiS + Kukiz + Korwin + Polish People's, for a big populist rightist affair? Or even PiS + United Left + Kukiz, although that would immediately asplode the UL.

(I don't know what Committee... is - Google translates it as the Polish Milipede Party, which certainly doesn't sound right.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #42 on: December 18, 2015, 06:53:54 AM »

Stonoga is surname of one funny guy (he is not a comedian, just based his activity on cheap populism, Internet and his own money Tongue). I guess PSL with Korwin would be very unlikely. Same with PiS-Kukiz-SLD as although Leszek Miller - now former leader of the party probably would try to enter the govt but other party bodies would block that. Probably there would be next elections as minority govts would not survive govt creating and legitimizing process.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #43 on: May 23, 2016, 09:01:49 AM »

Bumping for the latest UK results

Scotland
SNP: 56 (-7)
Con: 31 (nc)
Labour: 25 (+1)
Green: 8 (+2)
Lib Dem: 7 (+2)
UKIP: 2 (+2)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #44 on: May 23, 2016, 09:10:18 AM »

Wales
Labour: 20 (-9)
Plaid: 13 (+1)
Cons: 12 (+1)
UKIP: 8 (+1)
Lib Dem: 4 (+3)
AWA: 2 (+2)
Green: 1 (+1)
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #45 on: May 24, 2016, 05:13:23 PM »

I was bored so did UK 1997 - I might do some other ones that are a lot closer; this was just the first one that came to mind.

Labour: 290
Conservative: 205
Lib Dem: 112
Referendum: 17
SNP: 13
UUP: 5
SDLP: 4
Plaid Cymru: 3
Sinn Fein: 2
DUP: 2
UKIP: 2
"Free Voters" (independents): 1
Alliance: 1
Green: 1
Socialist Labour: 1

Labour are 40 seats short of an overall majority; they get there comfortably with the Lib Dems.  Labour, Plaid and the bigger NI parties all lose seats, the Tories, Lib Dems and the other minor parties are the beneficiaries.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #46 on: August 31, 2016, 12:47:34 PM »

Australia 2016

Coalition: 68 (-8)
Labor: 56 (-13)
Green: 16 (+15)
Xenophon: 3 (+2)
Family First: 2 (+2)
Christian Democrats: 2 (+2)
One Nation: 2 (+2)
Animal Justice: 1 (+1)
Katter's Australian: 0 (-1)

Despite the change, government is just as difficult to form as IRL. Labor+Green+NXT gets exactly half the seats, which seems like the most plausible government.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #47 on: September 27, 2016, 04:50:40 PM »

Bump for sketchy Russian results

Russia 2011
United Russia: 227 (-11)
Communist: 88 (-4)
A Just Russia: 61 (-3)
LPDR: 53 (-3)
Yabloko: 15 (+15)
Patriots of Russia: (+4)
Right Cause: 2 (+2)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #48 on: November 03, 2016, 01:33:41 PM »

Independence (29.00%): 20 (-1)
Left-Green (15.91%): 10
Pirate (14.48%): 9 (-1)
Progressive (11.49%): 7 (-1)
Viðreisn (10.48%): 7
Bright Future (7.16%): 4
Social Democrat (5.74%): 3
People's (3.54%): 2 (+2)
Dawn (1.73%): 1 (+1)

anybody see a valid coalition out of that?



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CrabCake
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« Reply #49 on: March 23, 2017, 10:59:17 AM »

Norway 2013


•Labour (31.06%): 54

•Hoyre (27.00%): 47

•Progress (16.46%): 28

•Christian dems (5.63%): 9

•Centre (5.52%): 9

•Venstre (5.27%): 9

•Socialist Left (4.12%): 7

•Green (2.81%): 4

•Red (1.09%): 1

•Christian (0.63%): 1

•Pensioners (0.42%): None

Kind of a pointless exercise, seeing as it mostly cleaves off one seat off every party down to centre and distributes them to Greens, Red and the Christians. The Hoyre-Progress majority would be down two to make 75 (85 needed for majority). Could be more interesting in previous election, when Venstre fell below the threshold and artificially boosted the left majority (although a very narrow victoey would mean Labour-Centre-Socialist would be reliant on the anticapitalist reds.
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