x

[X]

x

[Joe Biden 2020]

I got an email today mentioning the possibility of former Oklahoma State Senator Randy Brogdon running in a primary against Gov. Mary Fallin in 2014. Apparently he was asked about it and refused to say "Yes" but wouldn't say "No" either. He ran in 2010 and got 39.41% of the vote to Fallin's 54.79%, narrowly missing a runoff. Personally, I don't think he runs. I think it's more likely that he runs to replace Tom Coburn in the Senate in 2016, though he may have stiff competition on that front from someone like T.W. Shannon (Speaker of the OK House).

1. Does anyone think he'll actually run?
2. If he does, what are his chances?

1. He might, but I think he'll wait to see what happens in the next couple months with Fallin's approval ratings especially given the heat that Superintendent Janet Barresi is taking on.  I think there is a possibility that Barresi's inevitable demise may bring Fallin down and make her more vulnerable both to a primary challenge and if she does get past that, a strong Democratic challenger.  I said all that to say this, don't rule him out.

2.  If the scenario I described in point 1 plays out like I think they will, I think his chances will jump.  Without the scenario, I'd say 35-40%.  With the scenario, probably 55%.

[Indy Texas]

Is he running because he thinks Fallin's failin' at her job, or because he thinks she's not crazy enough?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Is he running because he thinks Fallin's failin' at her job, or because he thinks she's not crazy enough?

The latter.  Fallin is a good Governor, Brogdon is a certifiable nutcase.  He started an organization called the "Freedom's Roll Institute":

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Brodon will NOT run because he's stupid to know Fallin will crush his ass again.

He won't run for the governorship.

[LeBron]

Democratic State Rep. Joe Dorman Forms Committee for a run for Governor

Just saw him on Rachel Maddow and he apparently wants to make his main issue to focus on attacking the Republican Governor for their unwillingness to implement storm shelters in to Oklahoma schools. If I were him though, I might also focus on Governor Fallin's recent attacks on benefits to gay members of the military. Same-sex marriage is obviously very unpopular in the state I presume, but he could gain support from Republicans in the state on the military aspect of it.

This will mean the Democratic primary in Oklahoma could shockingly have two combatants if Dorman runs since R.J. Harris who is a former congressional candidate is also running for the nomination. If I were to guess, Dorman will end up getting the nomination because despite not even having declared yet, he's already gaining a lot of support from moderate, anti-Fallin voters.

And if I'm correct, Brad Henry unfortunately can't run until 2018 because he would obviously be the best hope Oklahoma Democrats have at winning here. As for Dorman though, although there's no polling done here, Fallin should still be able to win pretty handily.

[free my dawg]

Henry can't run again - OK's term limit law only gives you eight years.

Boren would be the best and only chance at a pickup.

[publicunofficial]

Henry can't run again - OK's term limit law only gives you eight years.

Boren would be the best and only chance at a pickup.

Henry claims he's exempt from the term limit law, because he was in office when that law was passed.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Whether or not Henry is exempt, I don't think he runs for Governor again.  His next move should be US Senator in 2016 to replace Tom Coburn.  I think Jim Inhofe's loss of his son may get him sympathy votes in 2014 and eliminate any chance of Democrats to win the seat.  As for Rep. Dorman, even he admits he will have a tough battle on his hands because Gov. Fallin is so popular, but he says he has to do it.  I'm hoping since he is pro-life that that might give him a better chance to win, but I don't know if it will.  We'll just have to wait and see, but its good to see that Gov. Fallin has a challenger at the very least and with 10 1/2 months still before the General Election.

[Maxwell]

An actual Democrat has entered the race: Joe Dorman. He's a State Rep who seems to have a decently accomplished record and history in Oklahoma. He'll probably win the primary against the libertarian sneak candidate, but probably lose to Fallin. He'll be lucky to get to 40% in the general.

I wouldn't be super enthused if he won the primary, but I would vote for him in the general if Fallin isn't primaried.

[Alcon]

"Our mission is to Resist..."

Always a promising start to a non-profit mission statement.

[Donerail]

Same-sex marriage is obviously very unpopular in the state I presume, but he could gain support from Republicans in the state on the military aspect of it.

This is a party whose debate attendees booed a gay soldier serving in Iraq.

[TX Conservative Dem]

On Oklahoma term limits: Henry does have a valid point on saying he was NOT affected by the 2010 term limits initiative, which was passed since he was already term-limited by then.

Didn't the law say, future governors were only to be impacted by the harsh strict two-term limit ?

Harry Truman wasn't term-limited in 1952, when he retired from the presidency (he served for 7 1/2 years in office and one full four-year term on his own).

[CatoMinor]

Is he trying to tea party her or does he just not like her?

[LeBron]

He probably won't win because he lost to Fallin when she wasn't even the incumbent by 15 points in 2010, so I suspect Fallin will beat him by around the same, but higher margin this time.

If the GOP primary ends up being brutal though, this could be the opening for Dorman to take advantage of the situation. To make that possible, Harris might need to drop out and run as an independent/libertarian again to avoid a competitive Democratic primary.

[badgate]

If the GOP primary ends up being brutal though, this could be the opening for Dorman to take advantage of the situation. To make that possible, Harris might need to drop out and run as an independent/libertarian again to avoid a competitive Democratic primary.

Or Dorman could just ignore him.

[TX Conservative Dem]

In 2018, the Oklahoma Democrats will get the governorship back once Fallin is term-limited. In recent years, the party who holds the White House, loses the OK governorship to the opposition party:

1962: (R) after JFK (D) wins White House
1970: (D) after Nixon (R) won presidency
1990: (D) after Geo. H. W. Bush (R) was elected President
1994: (R) after Clinton (D) wins the Presidency
2002: (D) after George W. Bush (R) elected President
2010: (R) after Obama won the presidency
2018: ?

[Donerail]

In 2018, the Oklahoma Democrats will get the governorship back once Fallin is term-limited. In recent years, the party who holds the White House, loses the OK governorship to the opposition party:

And we all know how reliable these trends are, right? Governor Cuccinelli proves testament to that.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Forgot to in include 1982: (D) when Reagan was President, when Nigh was re-elected governor.

[Maxwell]

The Democrats have already lost 2018: Their most prominent candidate lost by 10 points for Tulsa Mayor. Even if they run someone half competent, they will probably lose by double digits, unless there are serious circumstances.

[free my dawg]

The Democrats have already lost 2018: Their most prominent candidate lost by 10 points for Tulsa Mayor. Even if they run someone half competent, they will probably lose by double digits, unless there are serious circumstances.

Even Boren?

[Maxwell]

The Democrats have already lost 2018: Their most prominent candidate lost by 10 points for Tulsa Mayor. Even if they run someone half competent, they will probably lose by double digits, unless there are serious circumstances.

Even Boren?

If Boren runs in the future, it'll probably be as a Republican, considering his record in the House.

[IceSpear]

In 2018, the Oklahoma Democrats will get the governorship back once Fallin is term-limited. In recent years, the party who holds the White House, loses the OK governorship to the opposition party:

And we all know how reliable these trends are, right? Governor Cuccinelli proves testament to that.

And Senator Elaine Marshall. And President Romney.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Folks in Oklahoma want all Republican controlled state government and they got it.

Since being part of the Union in 1907, Oklahoma has always been conservative

Does anyone know if Oklahoma is part of the Midwest or South?

[pbrower2a]

Midwest in politics, South in economics and culture. The oil companies dominate the state.