IL-13: The Central Illinois showdown

[Mr. Illini]

Thought it would be helpful to give this hotly contested race its own thread. Here's the line-up as of now as well as information about the district.

Democratic Party
Judge Ann Callis (D-Edwardsville)
Professor George Gollin (D-Champaign)
David Green (D-Champaign)

Republican Party
Representative Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) (Incumbent)
Erika Harold (R-Chicago)

Counties: part of Bond, Champaign, Madison, McLean, Sangamon; all of Christian, Calhoun, De Witt, Greene, Jersey, Macon, Macoupin, Montgomery, Piatt

2012 Election:
Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) 47%
Doctor David Gill (D-Normal) 45%

Cook PVI: R+1

This district includes the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Illinois State University, the Illinois state capital of Springfield, a portion of St. Louis' eastern suburbs, and much of rural central Illinois.

The district is listed as a top target for Democrats in 2014.

[Miles]

Thanks.

Gass328 and I were talking about the 2020 redistricting. We think that Dems should combine CD12 and CD13 into a district stretching from St. Louis to Champaign. Thoughts?

[Mr. Illini]

Thanks.

Gass328 and I were talking about the 2020 redistricting. We think that Dems should combine CD12 and CD13 into a district stretching from St. Louis to Champaign. Thoughts?

It would be interesting but as far as I can tell it would not be a huge benefit for the Dems. If anything they would just be taking two even seats and opting for one solid blue and the other solid red.

[minionofmidas]

David Gill (D-Normal)

[Gass3268]

Thanks.

Gass328 and I were talking about the 2020 redistricting. We think that Dems should combine CD12 and CD13 into a district stretching from St. Louis to Campaign. Thoughts?

It would be interesting but as far as I can tell it would not be a huge benefit for the Dems. If anything they would just be taking two even seats and opting for one solid blue and the other solid red.

The idea is that Illinois will probably drop to 16 CD's in the 2020's, baring a major change in migration patterns. So our idea was to essentially get rid of CD13 and then combine the most democratic parts of CD12 and C13 together (say from East St. Louis to Campaign). You could also give CD17 the blue parts of Springfield. The net seat change would be Rep -1. 

[Mr. Illini]

Thanks.

Gass328 and I were talking about the 2020 redistricting. We think that Dems should combine CD12 and CD13 into a district stretching from St. Louis to Campaign. Thoughts?

It would be interesting but as far as I can tell it would not be a huge benefit for the Dems. If anything they would just be taking two even seats and opting for one solid blue and the other solid red.

The idea is that Illinois will probably drop to 16 CD's in the 2020's, baring a major change in migration patterns. So our idea was to essentially get rid of CD13 and then combine the most democratic parts of CD12 and C13 together (say from East St. Louis to Campaign). You could also give CD17 the blue parts of Springfield. The net seat change would be Rep -1. 

Ah I understand. Sounds like a good idea.

[Mr. Illini]

Any thoughts on the Democratic nomination here? This is such a fascinating district because of the polarized dynamic with the universities and the rural small towns. David Gill was nominated last round as the far-left alternative to a moderate Dem. Now we have DCCC-backed Ann Callis from the St. Louis suburbs running against two far-left University of Illinois employees that would probably be considered too extreme to win a Central Illinois primary in districts that don't include two major universities. If Gollin or Green win they would likely not have nearly the chance that Callis does to beat Davis, but there's a good chance one of them could be nominated since the Democratic primary is choc-full of university employees and any college students that registered in their college town (although most seem to stay registered at home).

[ill ind]

  This district is a tough run for any Dem in an off year election.  Callis probably has the best shot at it however.
 
In 2010 among major party vote, Bill Brady beat Pat Quinn here 60-40
In 2012 Romney eaked out a 50.2-49.8 victory in major party vote.

It is less friendly to a Dem than the DCCC would have you believe and will be a very tough nut to crack for them.

Ill_Ind
 

[Mr. Illini]

  This district is a tough run for any Dem in an off year election.  Callis probably has the best shot at it however.
 
In 2010 among major party vote, Bill Brady beat Pat Quinn here 60-40
In 2012 Romney eaked out a 50.2-49.8 victory in major party vote.

It is less friendly to a Dem than the DCCC would have you believe and will be a very tough nut to crack for them.

Ill_Ind
 

2010 was a Republican year. So be it. Keep in mind that in that same 2012 year, Davis barely got the victory over a far-left candidate. If Callis is nominated, that could be enough to sway the small margin that Davis won by over to the Democrats, as she is more moderate.

The lower turnout will be a negative for the Dems, though, as it is an off year. Point taken there.

[minionofmidas]

Any thoughts on the Democratic nomination here? This is such a fascinating district because of the polarized dynamic with the universities and the rural small towns. David Gill was nominated last round as the far-left alternative to a moderate Dem. Now we have DCCC-backed Ann Callis from the St. Louis suburbs running against two far-left University of Illinois employees

So they'd split the leftie vote?

St Louis suburbs is the wrong place to be from for the district, though.

[Meeker]

Green is a non-factor. It's a Callis vs. Gollin race. I'd give a slight edge to Callis right now, but let's see what Q4 fundraising looks like.

[muon2]

Thanks.

Gass328 and I were talking about the 2020 redistricting. We think that Dems should combine CD12 and CD13 into a district stretching from St. Louis to Campaign. Thoughts?

It would be interesting but as far as I can tell it would not be a huge benefit for the Dems. If anything they would just be taking two even seats and opting for one solid blue and the other solid red.

The idea is that Illinois will probably drop to 16 CD's in the 2020's, baring a major change in migration patterns. So our idea was to essentially get rid of CD13 and then combine the most democratic parts of CD12 and C13 together (say from East St. Louis to Campaign). You could also give CD17 the blue parts of Springfield. The net seat change would be Rep -1. 

If there are two seats disappearing, how is the net change R-1?

[minionofmidas]

Maybe Lipinski doesn't count as a Democrat? Or he meant 17?

[Mr. Illini]

Cash on hand as of the end of the 2013 cycle:

Davis (R - Taylorville): $1,061,026
Harold (R - Chicago): $121,944

Callis (D - Edwardsville): $517,129
Gollin (D - Champaign): $265,408

Gollin is holding up better than I had anticipated after the DCCC decided that they wanted Callis. His volunteers are student-heavy and I have been seeing his signs going up on bulletin boards on the U of I campus, but clearly he has support outside of that (perhaps professors) because he isn't fundraising poorly.

Unfortunately for the Harold camp, I don't anticipate the Republican primary being competitive.

[Vosem]

This is the district that taught me English. Very FF place.

Gollin is holding up better than I had anticipated after the DCCC decided that they wanted Callis. His volunteers are student-heavy and I have been seeing his signs going up on bulletin boards on the U of I campus, but clearly he has support outside of that (perhaps professors) because he isn't fundraising poorly.

Well, yeah. Gollin is from Champaign-Urbana, which is the political heart of the district, especially for the Democrats, since the University of Illinois is located there, while Callis is from the south of the district that has far fewer voters (Edwardsville can't be a third the size of just Champaign on its own). So it makes sense that Gollin would be able to have some traction, though I think Callis is favored; Illinois Dems (and, really, Midwestern Dems generally) almost always ultimately come around to back the establishment candidate. But keep in mind this is something of a rerun of the 2012 primary, when you had 'fringey' David Gill, from I think Bloomington (not Champaign-Urbana itself, but much closer to it than the Missouri border and the Bloomington-Normal area is sometimes seen as kind of a sister to Champaign-Urbana) up against Matt Goetten, who was the 'establishment' candidate from the south of the district; Gill beat Goetten, though that was by some kind of insanely close margin.

Unfortunately for the Harold camp, I don't anticipate the Republican primary being competitive.

Who remembers Miss USA winners?

In conclusion, Davis should be OK in the general election against either candidate; this is a Romney district, and Obama still has some residual home-state effect (and it'll be Pat Quinn at the top of the ticket now, not Obama); and of course Davis is an incumbent now. He'll be vulnerable in a wave, but he honestly should be fine in 2014.

[publicunofficial]

Last I heard, Gollin is kind of a nut and was last seen putting up Gollin for Congress signs outside the Callis campaign headquarters.

[Mr. Illini]

Last I heard, Gollin is kind of a nut and was last seen putting up Gollin for Congress signs outside the Callis campaign headquarters.

Well, he's fringe, sure, but the last time you had a fringe progressive vs. an establishment Democrat the district Dems nominated the fringe progressive. As I've already said, this district definitely is polarized between the university towns and the rural areas + STL burbs. Expect fringe progressives to do very well in Democratic primaries here, which puts them at a disadvantage in the general, especially in the swing STL suburbs.

[Miles]

National Journal on this race.

[Abhakhazia]

Okay, from the 13th district, this is what the race is looking like.

1. Rodney Davis will win the Republican primary- he has the money and the name recognition.
2. The Democrats have yet to do any meaningful ad campaign; Rodney Davis has already started.
3. Pat Quinn, no matter who wins the Republican primary or the general, is going to get slaughtered here, and that will help the Republicans.

[ill ind]

  In 2010 the split of the major party vote in the gubernatorial race in Dist 13 was:

Brady 60%
Quinn 40%

Ill_ind

[Mr. Illini]

Okay, from the 13th district, this is what the race is looking like.

1. Rodney Davis will win the Republican primary- he has the money and the name recognition.
2. The Democrats have yet to do any meaningful ad campaign; Rodney Davis has already started.
3. Pat Quinn, no matter who wins the Republican primary or the general, is going to get slaughtered here, and that will help the Republicans.

2) Callis is just kicking her's off and Gollin ran some ads already as well. Additionally, groups like League of Conservation Voters have been hammering Davis in ads over his stances on climate change.
3) It is way too early to say that, especially with three Democrat cities in the district.

[hopper]

Thanks.

Gass328 and I were talking about the 2020 redistricting. We think that Dems should combine CD12 and CD13 into a district stretching from St. Louis to Champaign. Thoughts?

It would be interesting but as far as I can tell it would not be a huge benefit for the Dems. If anything they would just be taking two even seats and opting for one solid blue and the other solid red.

This is part of the reason as to why we have political polarization right now is this proposal.

[Abhakhazia]

Okay, from the 13th district, this is what the race is looking like.

1. Rodney Davis will win the Republican primary- he has the money and the name recognition.
2. The Democrats have yet to do any meaningful ad campaign; Rodney Davis has already started.
3. Pat Quinn, no matter who wins the Republican primary or the general, is going to get slaughtered here, and that will help the Republicans.

2) Callis is just kicking her's off and Gollin ran some ads already as well. Additionally, groups like League of Conservation Voters have been hammering Davis in ads over his stances on climate change.
3) It is way too early to say that, especially with three Democrat cities in the district.

Davis's environmental positions have been hammered uselessly. While that may be useful in Champaign, most of the district cares more about lower gas prices and energy jobs than keeping the air clear.

What three Democratic cities? Springfield is a swing city at best (although the 18th takes away the more Republican western outskirts, you do still have the Eastern and Northern outskirts and downtown, which are predominantly Republican), Decatur and the part of the Metro East stuck in 13th are shifting Republican. Pat Quinn's approval ratings downstate are abysmal everywhere, he's really going to get smashed in the 13th.

[Mr. Illini]

Okay, from the 13th district, this is what the race is looking like.

1. Rodney Davis will win the Republican primary- he has the money and the name recognition.
2. The Democrats have yet to do any meaningful ad campaign; Rodney Davis has already started.
3. Pat Quinn, no matter who wins the Republican primary or the general, is going to get slaughtered here, and that will help the Republicans.

2) Callis is just kicking her's off and Gollin ran some ads already as well. Additionally, groups like League of Conservation Voters have been hammering Davis in ads over his stances on climate change.
3) It is way too early to say that, especially with three Democrat cities in the district.

Davis's environmental positions have been hammered uselessly. While that may be useful in Champaign, most of the district cares more about lower gas prices and energy jobs than keeping the air clear.

What three Democratic cities? Springfield is a swing city at best (although the 18th takes away the more Republican western outskirts, you do still have the Eastern and Northern outskirts and downtown, which are predominantly Republican), Decatur and the part of the Metro East stuck in 13th are shifting Republican. Pat Quinn's approval ratings downstate are abysmal everywhere, he's really going to get smashed in the 13th.

Springfield is Democratic voting, although the county is not. Champaign-Urbana and Bloomington-Normal would be the others, with Chambana the most liberal of the three.

[Abhakhazia]

Okay, from the 13th district, this is what the race is looking like.

1. Rodney Davis will win the Republican primary- he has the money and the name recognition.
2. The Democrats have yet to do any meaningful ad campaign; Rodney Davis has already started.
3. Pat Quinn, no matter who wins the Republican primary or the general, is going to get slaughtered here, and that will help the Republicans.

2) Callis is just kicking her's off and Gollin ran some ads already as well. Additionally, groups like League of Conservation Voters have been hammering Davis in ads over his stances on climate change.
3) It is way too early to say that, especially with three Democrat cities in the district.

Davis's environmental positions have been hammered uselessly. While that may be useful in Champaign, most of the district cares more about lower gas prices and energy jobs than keeping the air clear.

What three Democratic cities? Springfield is a swing city at best (although the 18th takes away the more Republican western outskirts, you do still have the Eastern and Northern outskirts and downtown, which are predominantly Republican), Decatur and the part of the Metro East stuck in 13th are shifting Republican. Pat Quinn's approval ratings downstate are abysmal everywhere, he's really going to get smashed in the 13th.

Springfield is Democratic voting, although the county is not. Champaign-Urbana and Bloomington-Normal would be the others, with Chambana the most liberal of the three.

Okay, well, I broke down the numbers and you're right about the part of Springfield in the 13th being Democratic, but the city as a whole is kinda swing-y.

Gollin got endorsed by the State Journal-Register, which, even though everyone that the S-JR endorsed in 2012 went down in defeat, that is bad news for Callis.