The UT-04 and UT-02 Thread

[Zioneer]

I figured that I might as well set up a thread for these two elections, since they're the only 2014 elections of any interest here in Utah. As of now, this is how it looks:

UT-02: Incumbent freshman Congressman Chris Stewart (R) is facing off against State Senator Luz Robles (D), who would be the first Latina Congresswoman from Utah if elected. Robles seems to be a surprisingly strong candidate, raising $50,000 within month of her announcement. She has low name recognition (as does Stewart), and has a long way to climb in this ultra-Republican district. However, the Utah Democratic Party's goal to register 40,000 new voters by Election Day 2014 may be helpful to her. I don't see Robles winning, but a better losing margin could easily be done, especially since she has a following in the portion of Salt Lake City in the district.

UT-04: The real reason I made this thread, this is of course seven term Congressman Jim Matheson (D... technically) versus Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love (R). It's going to be an expensive rematch, so both sides are ramping things up early. Mia Love brought in Allen West, and Matheson slammed both of them for extremism. Fairly predictable so far (since that's what happened last time), but notable in that it's earlier, since Love has no real competition for the nomination this time. Her main 2012 GOP opponent turned evangelical and is currently a policeman in a place that's in the middle of nowhere, even for Utah, and her only announced primary opponent is businessman Bob Fuehr, who is basically Genericus Maximus at this point. The real test in the district will be to see if Matheson has been able to effectively introduce himself to enough of his district, or if Mia Love has been able to improve her campaign from it's disasterous failure in 2012. Also of interest will be to see if a mysterious Libertarian candidate pops up on the ballot again. The 40,000 voter registration push will also be interesting to see in UT-04.

If any of you are interested in Utah legislative races in 2014 (I doubt it), I guess you could put them here.

[Miles]

Very good.

I heard Republicans were privately worried about Love because of her high burn rate this early in the cycle.

[Zioneer]

Very good.

I heard Republicans were privately worried about Love because of her high burn rate this early in the cycle.

Yeah, I've heard about that as well; my take is that she isn't obeying her new campaign manager (local campaign legend Dave Hansen, who is a big part of why Orrin Hatch is still a Senator today), if she's doing things like that. She doesn't need to get a list of potential donors; she's got a ton of Republican bigwigs ready to fundraise for her.

[SPC]

Disappointed to hear about Carl Wimmer's transformation.

[windjammer]

Well, Matheson is a survivor. So, Love would have to heavily outspend him.

For Luz Robles, it would be great if she got 40%. Honestly, it's cool to see UT democrats trying to build infrastructure etc in this state. 

[Zioneer]

Disappointed to hear about Carl Wimmer's transformation.

I'm not disappointed, I'm relieved. This is the guy who wanted to criminalize miscarriages, who openly carried a gun on the floor of the legislature, who had a Hitler 'stache at one point, and was basically an all-around jerk. If he wants out of politics and to make himself unelectable to some quarters of Utah politics, then I'm all for that.

Well, Matheson is a survivor. So, Love would have to heavily outspend him.

For Luz Robles, it would be great if she got 40%. Honestly, it's cool to see UT democrats trying to build infrastructure etc in this state. 

Yeah, Matheson is definitely a survivor, and very adaptable (maybe even too adaptable). He's also the graveyard of promising UT GOP political careers. The guy that came the next closest to beating Matheson is John Swallow, who is currently the state AG, but under investigation for a ridiculous array of corruption and bribery scandals. I'm convinced that Swallow freaked out after not having enough campaign money to beat Matheson (losing twice), and went to to other extreme.

Matheson has pissed off a lot of progressives, but not nearly enough to imperil his re-election. Most are resigned to the fact that he's the only one who can win anytime soon. There's a couple of others that I could see winning in a squeaker in 2016, but otherwise, Matheson is sadly the only one who can win at this point.

As for Robles, she could definitely get 40%; 2012 Dem nominee Jay Seegmiller basically barely tried, and got 33%. Robles is popular, has her own base, can appeal to an often-ignored voting population (Latinos, of course), and is an excellent fundraiser, which seems to indicate that she's taking it seriously. She could help build up the Latino candidates running for the legislature, though I don't know how much she could do if they're outside of UT-02. If Robles can get relatively close to winning (within 10%, for example) then that shakes up the political landscape here, since she's both Latino, and not a centrist like Matheson.

[hurricanehink]

Given that Utah gave Romney his strongest state, him not being the ballot could probably help Matheson

[Zioneer]

Given that Utah gave Romney his strongest state, him not being the ballot could probably help Matheson

Actually, Romney got 72%, only barely better than Bush's 71% in 2004. He probably had some downballot effect, but it wasn't as drastic as you'd think. Also, more minorities voted in 2012, which helped save Matheson's career.

[LastVoter]

Given that Utah gave Romney his strongest state, him not being the ballot could probably help Matheson

Actually, Romney got 72%, only barely better than Bush's 71% in 2004. He probably had some downballot effect, but it wasn't as drastic as you'd think. Also, more minorities voted in 2012, which helped save Matheson's career.

Romney's cultural background definitely made R's overperform in 2012. In 2008 there was a huge swing to Democrats, Utah is well on its way of getting Californicated.

[ElectionsGuy]

Given that Utah gave Romney his strongest state, him not being the ballot could probably help Matheson

Actually, Romney got 72%, only barely better than Bush's 71% in 2004. He probably had some downballot effect, but it wasn't as drastic as you'd think. Also, more minorities voted in 2012, which helped save Matheson's career.

Romney's cultural background definitely made R's overperform in 2012. In 2008 there was a huge swing to Democrats, Utah is well on its way of getting Californicated.

Yep I'm sure it is.

[Zioneer]

The fight in UT-04 begins.

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Also, a pharmaceutical safety bill long championed by Matheson is heading to the Senate. We have more legal drugs than illegal here in Utah, so it's an important issue to tackle.

[windjammer]

Matheson will survive.

[Zioneer]

Matheson will survive.

Perhaps, but it's not going to be easy. Mia Love is the strongest opponent he's ever had. Hopefully Matheson can come off of a win in 2014 to run a gubernatorial campaign in 2016.

[Zioneer]

So as some of you may know, Utah AG John Swallow resigned recently. Basically, there's going to be a GOP appointee, and then a special election in 2014 (most people are hoping the appointee won't be the AG candidate).

In any case, there are no other statewide races in 2014, so it'll be interesting to see how the AG election affects the Congressional races, and vice versa, especially in UT-04. I feel like the kind of people who vote for Matheson could be persuaded to vote for the Dem AG nominee.

[Zioneer]

Well, dusting off this thread, it seems Jim Matheson is retiring from Congress in 2014, and not seeking another term. Big news, and a total shocker. Literally no one I know (and I know a lot of Utah Dems) saw this coming. It could be preparation for a gubernatorial or Senate run in 2016, however.

UT-04 is probably a safe R pickup in 2014, however.

[Miles]

Love cleaned up at the convention; she got 78%.

[windjammer]

I can't stand Mia Love. You're from a poor family, you manage to succeed, and now you do all you can in order to avoid other people to live the America dream by supporting the Republican agenda.

She's terrible, like Tom Cotton, who used the student loans, and now want to end the federal programs regulating student loans.

[Zioneer]

Love cleaned up at the convention; she got 78%.

UT-04 Dem candidate Doug Owens (son of the late Congressman Wayne Owens) got 98%, though against a totally non-serious candidate.

In UT-02, Chris Stewart was easily re-nominated, and Luz Robles was unopposed.