Winning scenarios for Grimes and Nunn

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Based off this thread.  Where in their respective states do they need to compete, which counties do they need to flip, and what do the maps need to look like overall for a comfortable win for both of them?

[pbrower2a]

Based off this thread.  Where in their respective states do they need to compete, which counties do they need to flip, and what do the maps need to look like overall for a comfortable win for both of them?

Grimes wins Greater Louisville and Covington but must make inroads into rural areas. That will be tough if the Republicans link her to President Obama. Kentucky is very rural.

Nunn must win Greater Atlanta, but Georgia has Greater Atlanta. She must pick up some suburban support and do well in Athens and Savannah.

Senate races in Georgia and Kentucky are for the Republicans to lose with something so crass as the trivialization of rape. 

[JacobNC]

I don't think Nunn can win statewide without carrying Cobb and Gwinnett.

[publicunofficial]

Grimes probably looks like Beshear/Conway/ect. winning map.

[Miles]

I think 2008 would be a good baseline for Grimes. It wouldn't be as accurate to compare a Senate race to a statewide race in a state like KY. If we could get the 2008 Senate race broken down by CD, I think that would be helpful.

[JacobNC]

^She would do worse in eastern KY though, due to the Republican trend there.  To make up for that she would have to improve around Louisville and Lexington.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

^She would do worse in eastern KY though, due to the Republican trend there.  To make up for that she would have to improve around Louisville and Lexington.

Would eastern KY really break much against a good local Democrat in a good Democratic year?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

For reference...


Kentucky, 2008 - Senate


Georgia, 2008 - Senate

Looks to me that Grimes would need to do significantly better along the western portion of the state and Nunn would have to flip at least a handful of counties in southeast GA.  I don't see north GA swinging Dem any time soon.

[Adam Griffin]

I don't think Nunn can win statewide without carrying Cobb and Gwinnett.

She could pull it off, but both counties would need to be close. Nunn's strength is going to come from whittling away at the Republican totals statewide and hopefully cobbling enough together to hit 50% + 1 (because GA has run-offs and she loses in a run-off).

Nunn would have to flip at least a handful of counties in southeast GA.  I don't see north GA swinging Dem any time soon.

She will; I expect there to be some substantial swings in central and southern Georgia. The only problem is that outside of Muscogee, Bibb, Chatham and Richmond, this half of the state is pretty desolate (~20% of the population). Compared to 2010, I would expect her to be able to shrink the margins to 2008/Martin levels in many north Georgia counties (she's not black, after all), and that frankly is enough to put her in contention if she pulls it together throughout the remainder of the state. She has a shot of breaking 40% in the sparsely remaining old Democratic bastions in the north like Chattooga; I'll be looking at counties like that as soon as the polls close on Election Night to see whether or not rural support is where it needs to be in order to win.

Here's a uniform swing, winning scenario for Nunn that I did about a month ago:

Nunn - 50%
Broun - 47%