By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

With the looming by-election in Griffith, recently vacated by Kevin Rudd, I thought I'd start a thread dedicated to by-elections in this Parliament.

Read the Poll Bludger's profile of the Griffith by-election here

As the article states, the earliest possible date is the 21st of December, although this will not go ahead, considering the proximity to Christmas.

[morgieb]

Hard to tell who wins here. Generally most by-elections don't experience a further swing towards the party in power, but Rudd had a strong personal vote and the Libs do have a good candidate. However, there doesn't seem to be much momentum with the new government.

Gonna say this leans in Labor's direction.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Hard to tell who wins here. Generally most by-elections don't experience a further swing towards the party in power, but Rudd had a strong personal vote and the Libs do have a good candidate. However, there doesn't seem to be much momentum with the new government.

Gonna say this leans in Labor's direction.

Considering a lot of the good Liberal territory in Griffith was shifted to Bonner in 2004, it's going to be difficult for the Liberals, or should I say LNP, to win here. We really have to wait and see who the candidates are first, though. For example: If Di Farmer, ex-member for the state seat Bulimba, is the Labor candidate, she will most likely win.

There's also the factor of the voters being dragged back to the polls, after Rudd said he would stay for the Parliament, although a lot of ex-Prime Minsters and Premiers, from both sides, do resign their seat should they lose their job as government leader. This is different to what happened in Miranda over in NSW recently, that dunce Graham Annesley quit half-way through his term.

Personally, I think both Rudd and Annesley should have committed to staying a full term, rather than cause by-elections, as neither of them died or became seriously ill, although that's getting off subject.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The Palmer United Party will not be contesting Griffith:
http://palmerunited.com/2013/12/palmer-united-party-wont-contest-griffith/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Governments do not gain seats in by-elections in Australia and this Government's rather lukewarm honeymoon is over already. KRudd's once formidable personal vote at least partially evaporated this year anyway.

[Smid]

Griffith is coming up on 8 February. There are 11 candidates:

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And yes, it really is that Anthony Ackroyd.

[BaconBacon96]

Well this ones a tough nut to crack. At the time of the Coalition's victory anyone would have said that Glasson would win a by-election if he stood. But now I'm not so sure if he can do it.

It doesn't help that the governing party has never won a by-election in an opposition seat before.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think it'll be 51-49 ALP... but that's only an educated estimate.

[Talleyrand]

I'm going to be a pessimist and guess 51.5 LNP. I do think it'll be very close though, within 5 or 6 points.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm going to be a pessimist and guess 51.5 LNP. I do think it'll be very close though, within 5 or 6 points.

Are there any times in which you aren't pessimistic?

[Hash]

FTR I merged an earlier thread into this one. Let me know if there any other Ozzie by-election threads out there which could be consolidated...

[Smid]

FTR I merged an earlier thread into this one. Let me know if there any other Ozzie by-election threads out there which could be consolidated...

I noticed - thank you! I deleted the start of my post, which read "I don't think there's another of these threads out there?" or words to that effect, once I saw you'd merged.

[MaxQue]

I'm not Australian, but, knowing Westminster politics, it's very rare than government is gaining an opposition seat in a by-election, no matter the country. And that government can't be called popular (it manages to trail in polls without even having an honeymoon).

[Hifly]

I'm surprised by the lack of leaked internal polling I've seen for Griffith.

[Smid]

I'm surprised by the lack of leaked internal polling I've seen for Griffith.

I'm not - internal polls are always leaked for a purpose, and sometimes I doubt whether the poll was actually in the field... If Labor is ahead by more than the MoE, nobody is going to want to leak it - Labor would fear that it might let their voters become complacent, and the Liberals would fear that it would discourage their voters from voting for them. Only if internal polls were especially close, would there be any point in a leak.

[morgieb]

Can't believe the pessimism from some of my fellow Laborites. When was the last time the incumbent party gained a seat in a by-election?

[Hifly]

Butler should win this by at least 4 points.

[MaxQue]

Can't believe the pessimism from some of my fellow Laborites. When was the last time the incumbent party gained a seat in a by-election?

It happened once in the whole Australian history, in 1920 in Kalgoorlie (Nationalist gain over an Labor MP which was expelled from the House, for accusing British Empire of despotism, which PM Hugues ruled as a violation of the oath of allegiance).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm surprised by the lack of leaked internal polling I've seen for Griffith.

I'm not - internal polls are always leaked for a purpose, and sometimes I doubt whether the poll was actually in the field... If Labor is ahead by more than the MoE, nobody is going to want to leak it - Labor would fear that it might let their voters become complacent, and the Liberals would fear that it would discourage their voters from voting for them. Only if internal polls were especially close, would there be any point in a leak.

Exactly - what I've heard is rumbles (and before hifly jumps on me, yes, very vague rumbles) that Butler is ahead (not miles ahead by means - in fact the exact quote was "her primary vote looks pretty strong and Glasson's primary is weaker than last year"). The fact that there have been no leaks of internal polling and the only message is that both are saying "it's a very close race" kind of verifies this to me.

I don't see this being a 6-10% drubbing, but a lot of it comes down to preference flows too. Both are desperately trying to avoid seepage to smaller parties and risking vote exhaustion, with 11 candidates on the ballot, that is a risk.

Context from Antony Green...

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If the swing was on the average, that would make Griffith the second safest ALP seat in QLD after Blair and roughly on par with Rankin.

[Talleyrand]

I'm going to be a pessimist and guess 51.5 LNP. I do think it'll be very close though, within 5 or 6 points.

Are there any times in which you aren't pessimistic?

I think so...

Also,

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http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/bill-glasson-calls-in-the-lnp-big-guns-for-griffith-poll-launch/story-fnii5v6w-1226815813177

Maybe they're just trying to downplay expectations, but not welcome news regardless.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I'm going to be a pessimist and guess 51.5 LNP. I do think it'll be very close though, within 5 or 6 points.

Are there any times in which you aren't pessimistic?

I think so...

Also,

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http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/bill-glasson-calls-in-the-lnp-big-guns-for-griffith-poll-launch/story-fnii5v6w-1226815813177

Maybe they're just trying to downplay expectations, but not welcome news regardless.

It's hard to get anything from small samples, but it looks like a Miranda situation could be on the cards, regarding the sitting member vacating in a term.

I think this will be within 2 percent either side of the 50-50 mark. Gun to my head? Narrow Glasson win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I say 51-49 Butler, the sheer number of candidates and unpredictable preference flows make this really hard to call.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My final prediction is 53.4% ALP

[morgieb]

Gonna say it'll be the same result as last time.

Interesting that there's been no polling and only one leaked internal.

[Hifly]

I don't know if Labor's plan to make this a referendum on Tony Abbott is smart...in the highly likely event that the Libs do better than last time surely that would show that their opinion on Tony Abbott has improved then according to this logic?