By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I dunno what's going on. I was thinking Labor might pinch this earlier on, but the polls have been pretty pessimistic for Labor.

I'll say 51/49 Liberals, I guess.

Even getting this close would be a huge win for Labor, 'pessimistic' is a relative term. We can't be too greedy.

My thoughts exactly. We have to remember that numerically a win for the ALP would require a very big swing. Any result that cuts the Liberal margin to 6% or less would be a very solid result.

Keep in mind, that the average swing in the face of a sitting-member's death (over resignation or retirement) is under 3%. So keep that in mind.

[Barnes]

I dunno what's going on. I was thinking Labor might pinch this earlier on, but the polls have been pretty pessimistic for Labor.

I'll say 51/49 Liberals, I guess.

Even getting this close would be a huge win for Labor, 'pessimistic' is a relative term. We can't be too greedy.

My thoughts exactly. We have to remember that numerically a win for the ALP would require a very big swing. Any result that cuts the Liberal margin to 6% or less would be a very solid result.

Keep in mind, that the average swing in the face of a sitting-member's death (over resignation or retirement) is under 3%. So keep that in mind.

I was going to reference that figure in my earlier post, but I couldn't remember the number - thanks for doing the work for me, Polnut!

With the polling normalizing around a 51-49 Liberal win, that's a swing of about 10%, which would be an extremely impressive result for Labor.

[Talleyrand]

We finally get a poll where the TPP is believable based on the primary.

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/12/newspoll-51-49-to-liberal-in-canning/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We finally get a poll where the TPP is believable based on the primary.

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/12/newspoll-51-49-to-liberal-in-canning/

I don't know whether this was based on previous election or respondent allocated for the TPP. But frankly 44% primary is in the danger zone for Hastie, considering the preference flows will likely be terrible for them. But for Abbott to only be 3% ahead of Shorten as PPM in a natural Lib area in a strong Fed Lib state is the other telling factor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh and apparently more polling out tonight.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

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So, considering they're losing 4-5% when polling previous vs respondent-allocated, I would not be happy or comfortable with this if I were the Libs.

[Barnes]

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So, considering they're losing 4-5% when polling previous vs respondent-allocated, I would not be happy or comfortable with this if I were the Libs.

Oh, dear they are in a bit of a pickle aren't they?  Abbott has refused to commit today to what margin is a "good margin" for Hastie - just that he wants him to win.

Last week in Question Time Abbott made some comment about how he "prays to God that he [Hastie] wins."  You can tell the reasons as to why he's praying...

[Talleyrand]

Ipsos has fairly similar numbers to Galaxy.

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/12/newspoll-51-49-to-liberal-in-canning/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Still sitting on about 10%... all-things considered, I'd be surprised if things improve between now and Saturday.

[Barnes]

Given the tumultuous week that we've had, I think we all deserve a re-do of our predictions.

I'll say between 53-54% Liberal on 2PP - which is really only a one to two point swing from my previous prediction.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think 55.2-44.8%

[BaconBacon96]

Antony Green has called the election for Andrew Hastie and the Liberals, with a swing of about 6% against them.

[Talleyrand]

Antony Green has called the election for Andrew Hastie and the Liberals, with a swing of about 6% against them.

The current projected result is 54.8-45.2 (or a 7% swing), so it looks like Polnut hit the nail on the head with this one.

Strong momentum for Turnbull nonetheless.

[Barnes]

There will obviously be lots of spin on both sides, but I will say that a 7% swing is pretty large regardless of what earlier polls were saying.

[Barnes]

Neither postal nor pre-poll votes have been counted yet, so I think the swing will go over 7% or there abouts.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There will obviously be lots of spin on both sides, but I will say that a 7% swing is pretty large regardless of what earlier polls were saying.

Not spinning - but this isn't THAT great of an outcome.

[Barnes]

There will obviously be lots of spin on both sides, but I will say that a 7% swing is pretty large regardless of what earlier polls were saying.

Not spinning - but this isn't THAT great of an outcome.

Sorry, not that great for who? It's definitely a let down from how Labor was polling, but still pretty large change.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There will obviously be lots of spin on both sides, but I will say that a 7% swing is pretty large regardless of what earlier polls were saying.

Not spinning - but this isn't THAT great of an outcome.

Sorry, not that great for who? It's definitely a let down from how Labor was polling, but still pretty large change.

Well the last two polls once Turnbull came in had it at 57-43 and the polling before was 52-48... so it seems like Turnbull was only worth 2.5-3% not the 5% or higher than some were expecting - noting that the Labor primary of around 36% is in line with the polls, even before Abbott was binned. So, the Liberals picked up a few points from others and smaller parties, but an almost 10% swing on primaries is a strong result for Labor.

[Barnes]

Yeah, sorry, I just wanted to check your meaning.

I absolutely agree with your above post.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Interesting that the greens slipped a bit, even as the carbon tax fades away and their new leader attempts to reach out.

[Barnes]

Joe Hockey is set to resign his seat of North Sydney in the near future triggering a by-election in the Liberal stronghold.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Joe Hockey is set to resign his seat of North Sydney in the near future triggering a by-election in the Liberal stronghold.

If Labor is smart they won't even bother contesting it, seeing if they can get a strong local independent to run.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Canning currently sitting on
55.3-44.7% ugh... nearly got it.

[Talleyrand]

Former Treasurer Joe Hockey has officially resigned, and a byelection date of December 5th has been set for his safe Liberal seat of North Sydney. Trent Zimmerman, the state party president, has been preselected for the Liberals.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/27/north-sydney-by-election-december-5/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Counting underway in North Sydney... so far, Liberal performance has been a little underwhelming, primary swing away sitting at about 15%.