By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)
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Author Topic: By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)  (Read 27219 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #150 on: October 25, 2014, 12:22:22 AM »


Correct - but you won't see any significant results until around 7pm.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #151 on: October 25, 2014, 03:27:28 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2014, 03:34:02 AM by MaxQue »


I can't say it's good so far for Labor. They are in a close race in Newcastle with an apparently right-wing independent.

EDIT: Should be okay, the two first stations were the most and 3rd Liberals in the seat last time.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #152 on: October 25, 2014, 03:41:33 AM »

Labor will be fine in both.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #153 on: October 25, 2014, 05:07:38 AM »

Both called for Labor

Swing to Labor in Newcastle slightly subdued, in no short part off the strength of the Greens. But it's a by-election and the Greens were always going to do well. Charlestown was a stonking ALP win - just over 20% swing on primaries and over 50%.
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morgieb
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« Reply #154 on: October 25, 2014, 05:20:53 AM »

Both called for Labor

Swing to Labor in Newcastle slightly subdued, in no short part off the strength of the Greens. But it's a by-election and the Greens were always going to do well. Charlestown was a stonking ALP win - just over 20% swing on primaries and over 50%.
Worth noting the Independent in Newcastle was the de facto Liberal candidate, something they lacked in Charleston.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #155 on: October 25, 2014, 06:34:58 AM »

Both called for Labor

Swing to Labor in Newcastle slightly subdued, in no short part off the strength of the Greens. But it's a by-election and the Greens were always going to do well. Charlestown was a stonking ALP win - just over 20% swing on primaries and over 50%.
Worth noting the Independent in Newcastle was the de facto Liberal candidate, something they lacked in Charleston.

Indeed.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #156 on: December 06, 2014, 06:01:13 PM »
« Edited: December 06, 2014, 06:11:34 PM by CrabCake »

Extraordinary by-election result in Fisher atm. 8% swing towards a long-term incumbent minority government in a seat that hasn't gone Labor in three decades?? That's almost impressive...
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #157 on: December 07, 2014, 10:47:23 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2014, 10:50:47 PM by Thomas from NJ »

Results of the Fisher state by-election, before pre-poll and postal votes are counted:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2014/fisher/result.htm
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #158 on: December 08, 2014, 09:14:44 AM »
« Edited: December 08, 2014, 09:35:08 AM by New Canadaland »

Extraordinary by-election result in Fisher atm. 8% swing towards a long-term incumbent minority government in a seat that hasn't gone Labor in three decades?? That's almost impressive...
An 8% swing is extraordinary?! You guys have some low standards!
Good job still.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #159 on: December 08, 2014, 03:59:52 PM »

Extraordinary by-election result in Fisher atm. 8% swing towards a long-term incumbent minority government in a seat that hasn't gone Labor in three decades?? That's almost impressive...
An 8% swing is extraordinary?! You guys have some low standards!
Good job still.

A 8% swing towards a four-term government is quite unlikely, even here.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
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« Reply #160 on: December 08, 2014, 08:04:17 PM »

So if this result holds, SA Labor gets a majority, yes?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #161 on: December 08, 2014, 09:29:44 PM »

So if this result holds, SA Labor gets a majority, yes?

It would give them 24 seats on 47, with another by-election in Davenport in January. A swing of 8.1% would be needed to swing the seat to Labor. I would said it's very unlikely, but the current swing in Fisher is 8.7%...
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #162 on: December 08, 2014, 09:45:49 PM »

So if this result holds, SA Labor gets a majority, yes?

It would give them 24 seats on 47, with another by-election in Davenport in January. A swing of 8.1% would be needed to swing the seat to Labor. I would said it's very unlikely, but the current swing in Fisher is 8.7%...
But 24 out of 47 is indeed a majority, so it would appear they have it.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #163 on: December 08, 2014, 09:50:21 PM »

The margin was pegged back quite a bit when the postal votes were counted, they broke 58-42% Lib, but the rumbles out of the count of the absentee and pre-polls today suggests the breakdown is much closer to the Saturday vote totals - the ALP position is being boosted and all being equal, there might be some kind of declaration this evening.
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morgieb
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« Reply #164 on: December 09, 2014, 02:49:06 AM »

In fact the Liberals did much better on the prepolls, oddly. They now have the surprising edge.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #165 on: December 09, 2014, 03:07:23 AM »

In fact the Liberals did much better on the prepolls, oddly. They now have the surprising edge.

It's apparently having a closeness contest with Prahran, VA. 17 votes in Fisher, 25 in Prahran, both for Liberals.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #166 on: December 09, 2014, 07:42:53 PM »

Lol... now the ALP is up by 21 in Fisher.

Apparently the later postals were very unfriendly the Libs in relation to preference flows, whereas the earlier ones were, if anything, over-friendly to them.

So... no one has a clue. 
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DL
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« Reply #167 on: December 13, 2014, 09:19:19 AM »

The count is complete. all preferences have been distributed and Labor won Fisher by 23 votes giving the ALP a majority government in South Australia. Merry Christmas!
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Barnes
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« Reply #168 on: January 30, 2015, 06:35:47 PM »

We can use this thread for the Davenport by-election in SA today. I'd be very surprised if we have a replay of Fisher, but there is likely to be a large swing to Labor.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #169 on: January 30, 2015, 06:39:35 PM »

Why is a large swing to labor expected? Abbott fatigue > SA Labor fatigue?
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Barnes
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« Reply #170 on: January 30, 2015, 06:43:46 PM »

Why is a large swing to labor expected? Abbott fatigue > SA Labor fatigue?

The ALP seems to be having a resurgence of support somewhat. They're actually slightly ahead in polling for the next state election. The enormous debacle with the former Defence Minister, David Johnston, had a significant impact in Fisher specifically.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #171 on: January 30, 2015, 08:17:30 PM »

Labor won't win this; the seat is far more Liberal than Fisher is. However, due to the circumstances mentioned above, they'll improve their vote. The question is whether it'll be a fairly small swing or a larger one. I'd expect the Libs to get around 54% personally.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #172 on: January 30, 2015, 08:27:33 PM »
« Edited: January 30, 2015, 09:51:40 PM by Senator Polnut »

It's the WORST possible time for a by-election (increase in protest votes)... I'd be very wary of counting Labor out.

EDIT: But yes, I agree with morgieb - probably 52-48 Lib.
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morgieb
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« Reply #173 on: January 30, 2015, 08:38:52 PM »

I'd probably say Liberals 52-48, the seat is more blue-ribbon than Fisher. If the Liberals lose this......South Australia may finally have a Labor government in terms of time in government to rival the Playfair's and the JBP's of the world.
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #174 on: January 30, 2015, 09:47:57 PM »

I'll go for a Liberal hold, but for Labor to gain around a 5% swing. As I said on another website, Labor winning Davenport is akin to Labor winning the likes of Churchlands or South Perth in WA.
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