By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

[Talleyrand]

Labor's leading with 4/9 booths in.

[Barnes]

Well this is just a magical night!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well this is just a magical night!

Praise Jebus

[morgieb]

Labor's conceded now apparently. Oh well, we still have a majority in South Australia anyway and Queensland is looking good.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Full Davenport results here, not sure how many ballots are outstanding, but the Liberals have narrowly held it.

[Barnes]

Peter Ryan, former leader of the Victorian Nationals, is resigning his state seat of Gippsland South today.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Peter Ryan, former leader of the Victorian Nationals, is resigning his state seat of Gippsland South today.

Should be a fairly easy National retain, although it depends on whether a strong independent runs.

[Barnes]

The writ for the by-election in Gippsland South has be issued. Here's the timetable:

Close of Electoral Roll - 24 February
Final day for nominations - 27 February
Election Day - 14 March

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The writ for the by-election in Gippsland South has be issued. Here's the timetable:

Close of Electoral Roll - 24 February
Final day for nominations - 27 February
Election Day - 14 March

So far, three candidates have nominated:

Legislative Council member and former Peter Ryan staffer Danny O'Brien (National)
Shire of Wellington mayor Scott Rossetti (Liberal)
Public servant and activist Andrea Millsom (Greens)

For those who don't know, the Victorian Liberals and Nationals have once again ended their coalition agreement, hence why they're running against each other.

[Smid]

The writ for the by-election in Gippsland South has be issued. Here's the timetable:

Close of Electoral Roll - 24 February
Final day for nominations - 27 February
Election Day - 14 March

So far, three candidates have nominated:

Legislative Council member and former Peter Ryan staffer Danny O'Brien (National)
Shire of Wellington mayor Scott Rossetti (Liberal)
Public servant and activist Andrea Millsom (Greens)

For those who don't know, the Victorian Liberals and Nationals have once again ended their coalition agreement, hence why they're running against each other.

The Coalition Agreement hasn't ended, Liberals and Nationals together form the Shadow Cabinet. The Age reported (regarding a Liberal candidacy):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The writ for the by-election in Gippsland South has be issued. Here's the timetable:

Close of Electoral Roll - 24 February
Final day for nominations - 27 February
Election Day - 14 March

So far, three candidates have nominated:

Legislative Council member and former Peter Ryan staffer Danny O'Brien (National)
Shire of Wellington mayor Scott Rossetti (Liberal)
Public servant and activist Andrea Millsom (Greens)

For those who don't know, the Victorian Liberals and Nationals have once again ended their coalition agreement, hence why they're running against each other.

The Coalition Agreement hasn't ended, Liberals and Nationals together form the Shadow Cabinet. The Age reported (regarding a Liberal candidacy):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My bad, I thought it did for some reason. Good to hear it hasn't, and I can see why both Coalition candidates are running - I don't think another Shepparton would be good for the Coalition.

[Talleyrand]

Looks like the Nationals have held it, but the notional count is against the Greens. Curious to see what the National v. Liberal count will be in the end.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/nationals-hold-gippsland-south-in-byelection-20150314-1447tj.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bump, for the Canning by-election caused by the death of Don Randall. This has been held by the coalition since the 90's but could be vulnerable (notably in a so-so Year for the ALP 2010, their star candidate almost won the seat).

This is mostly a suburban seat, but incorporates a swathe of WA's second largest city Mandurah.

The Speaker (whenever a new one I'd announced) should call the date.

The late MP's daughter is believed to be front runner for the Liberal selection.

Clive Palmer (lol) confirms PUP will run.

[Talleyrand]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Post I made about it when Randall died. Another interesting thing to note is that at the state election in 2013 (when the Coalition won 57% of the vote, only 1% less than the 58% they won at the federal election the same year), the areas in Canning voted only 55% Liberal. Granted, that's at least partly due to the fact that there are some incumbent Labor MLAs whose districts are in the seat, but it suggests Randall had a very strong personal following in the seat.

Randall's daughter running would make it more difficult for the ALP to get a big swing though. Their likely candidate is Matt Keogh, President of the WA Law Society.

Regardless of whether they win the seat or not however (and they're quite unlikely to do so in my view), the redistribution is likely to create a new marginal seat more friendly to Labor in this area.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tess Randall will not run, front runner for Liberal selection is former soldier Andrew Hastie

[Barnes]

The date for the Canning by-election has been set for September 19; nominations close on August 27.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

To repeat from the other thread. Canning Newspoll (yes, electorate poll... So) but headlines are the Libs are up 51-49% (a 10.8% swing) based on 2013 preferences and Abbott is only 4% ahead of Shorten as PPM in  a very conservative seat.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A Union-commissioned (therefore double caveats) poll of Canning, done by ReachTEL has Labor ahead 50.1-49.9. However, that is respondent-allocated, based on 2013 it would be a 57-43 Lib win. What this poll is telling me that I think the Lib candidate needs to get at least 45% of the primary vote to feel secure, because I don't think the preference flow to the Libs will be very strong at all. I still think we'll see a Lib win of 52-54% - so around an 8-10% swing.   

[Barnes]

Former Victorian Premier Denis Napthine is set to retire from Parliament and resign his seat of South-West Coast this week.

He's also being joined by his Transport Minister when in government, Terry Mudler, who is stepping down from his seat of Polwarth.

Full story here.

The article speculates that Labor won't contest either but that the Nationals could try to make a challenge.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Two more polls suggesting a 51-49 Lib win, off a pretty strong flow of preferences to the ALP, I think too strong and they'll ease off once people are in the booth.

I still think the most likely result is a 53-47 win for the Libs.

[Barnes]

I going to bet at about 52-48 Lib win, although I could see a variance of about one point either way. 

[morgieb]

I dunno what's going on. I was thinking Labor might pinch this earlier on, but the polls have been pretty pessimistic for Labor.

I'll say 51/49 Liberals, I guess.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I imagine Laborites playing the long game would be hoping for an LNP victory as a Labor victory virtually ensures that Abbott gets canned and replaced with a much more popular leader, yes?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I dunno what's going on. I was thinking Labor might pinch this earlier on, but the polls have been pretty pessimistic for Labor.

I'll say 51/49 Liberals, I guess.

Even getting this close would be a huge win for Labor, 'pessimistic' is a relative term. We can't be too greedy.

[Barnes]

I dunno what's going on. I was thinking Labor might pinch this earlier on, but the polls have been pretty pessimistic for Labor.

I'll say 51/49 Liberals, I guess.

Even getting this close would be a huge win for Labor, 'pessimistic' is a relative term. We can't be too greedy.

My thoughts exactly. We have to remember that numerically a win for the ALP would require a very big swing. Any result that cuts the Liberal margin to 6% or less would be a very solid result.