By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

[MaxQue]

I'm not Australian, but, knowing Westminster politics, it's very rare than government is gaining an opposition seat in a by-election, no matter the country. And that government can't be called popular (it manages to trail in polls without even having an honeymoon).

[MaxQue]

Can't believe the pessimism from some of my fellow Laborites. When was the last time the incumbent party gained a seat in a by-election?

It happened once in the whole Australian history, in 1920 in Kalgoorlie (Nationalist gain over an Labor MP which was expelled from the House, for accusing British Empire of despotism, which PM Hugues ruled as a violation of the oath of allegiance).

[MaxQue]

We've had the first attempt at a poll for the WA Senate vote...

The results are as expected, massively increased support for the usual suspects, collapses in the smaller parties... keep in mind the quota for a seat is 16.7%

That would be the quota if there were five seats up for election, but since there are six seats the quota is in fact 16.7% -- under the numbers you posted 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 Green would almost be assured.

Surely you meant than the quota is 1/7 (6 seats), so 14.3%?

[MaxQue]

The title of this thread makes it seem like a general election is expected in 2016, only three years after the last election.  Didn't the Liberal-National coalition win enough seats that they should be able to last a full term (up to five years, but often with an election called after four if the government's polling okay)?  Or is the Senate posing an issue?

In Australia, full terms are 3 years.

[MaxQue]

Just voted a couple of hours ago, did my vote below the line. As others have said, I predict 3 Liberal, 2 Labor and 1 Green as the result.

So, the individual picked by yourself potatoes, instead of the pre-packaged potato bag, according to that silly ad of the AEC.

It's terrible geofocusing than I get them on various websites.

[MaxQue]

Australia Defence minister and lead Liberal candidate has the exact same than the Canadian Governor General. It's wierd.

[MaxQue]

the SDA is the party's largest donor so they naturally ought to have a right to preselect who they want under the ALP's own rules.

So much for being "left-wing". You can apparently buy left-wing parties if you have enough money. No wonder than working-class isn't willing to vote for Labor.

[MaxQue]

She's just throwing a hissy fit and forgetting that she was preselected to the number one spot using the very same preselection methods in 2007 (and thus owes her entire political career to this factionalism), that over a third of the caucus don't support same-sex marriage, as well as the fact that the SDA is the party's largest donor so they naturally ought to have a right to preselect who they want under the ALP's own rules.

Anyways, most Labor parties are removing their union power. Labour adopted a refom curtailing their power.
Canada's NDP (federal), removed most powers to unions in the early 00's (and if they didn't, they would do so now, since the majority of the NDP MPs is from Quebec, but Quebec unions always refused to be associated with NDP (Quebec unions are mostly for independence)).

[MaxQue]

The one thing I don't get is why the SDA (which given who shopkeepers are would have a heavily female-skewing membership) are so socially conservative/bigoted?

Because, like most unions, the leadership doesn't advocate the opinions of the membership, but rather their own opinions.

[MaxQue]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shop,_Distributive_and_Allied_Employees_Association#Criticism

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But this isn't even a union issue... so why is it important?

Because the leadership still thinks the labor movement hasn't evolved beyond the days of Bob Santamaria and the domination of the old-school Catholic Right... they think they still have the right to dictate national policy issues that have NOTHING to do with their remit.

That's an issue for the ALP not for the unions themselves.

It's also an issue for the unions. If I were a member, I wouldn't be happy than my dues are used to spread homophobia.

[MaxQue]

Two more "victims" of ICAC in New South Wales resign their seats: Tim Owen, Newcastle MP and Andrew Cornell, Charlestown MP.

Both were gains in the 2011 wave, and seem to have been reliable Labor seats.

There will be-elections or they'll wait the general election in March?

[MaxQue]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/10/25/newcastle-and-charlestown-by-elections-october-25/

If I understand well, polls close at 6PM local time (3AM eastern)?

[MaxQue]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/10/25/newcastle-and-charlestown-by-elections-october-25/

If I understand well, polls close at 6PM local time (3AM eastern)?

Correct - but you won't see any significant results until around 7pm.

I can't say it's good so far for Labor. They are in a close race in Newcastle with an apparently right-wing independent.

EDIT: Should be okay, the two first stations were the most and 3rd Liberals in the seat last time.

[MaxQue]

Extraordinary by-election result in Fisher atm. 8% swing towards a long-term incumbent minority government in a seat that hasn't gone Labor in three decades?? That's almost impressive...

An 8% swing is extraordinary?! You guys have some low standards!
Good job still.

A 8% swing towards a four-term government is quite unlikely, even here.

[MaxQue]

So if this result holds, SA Labor gets a majority, yes?

It would give them 24 seats on 47, with another by-election in Davenport in January. A swing of 8.1% would be needed to swing the seat to Labor. I would said it's very unlikely, but the current swing in Fisher is 8.7%...

[MaxQue]

In fact the Liberals did much better on the prepolls, oddly. They now have the surprising edge.

It's apparently having a closeness contest with Prahran, VA. 17 votes in Fisher, 25 in Prahran, both for Liberals.