By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

[Barnes]

Nice to see that these Labor seats finally falling back into place.  Newman is most definitely moving to a safer seat in 2015 if he intends to remain in Parliament.

[Barnes]

We can use this thread for the Davenport by-election in SA today. I'd be very surprised if we have a replay of Fisher, but there is likely to be a large swing to Labor.

[Barnes]

Why is a large swing to labor expected? Abbott fatigue > SA Labor fatigue?

The ALP seems to be having a resurgence of support somewhat. They're actually slightly ahead in polling for the next state election. The enormous debacle with the former Defence Minister, David Johnston, had a significant impact in Fisher specifically.

[Barnes]

Well this is just a magical night!

[Barnes]

Peter Ryan, former leader of the Victorian Nationals, is resigning his state seat of Gippsland South today.

[Barnes]

The writ for the by-election in Gippsland South has be issued. Here's the timetable:

Close of Electoral Roll - 24 February
Final day for nominations - 27 February
Election Day - 14 March

[Barnes]

The date for the Canning by-election has been set for September 19; nominations close on August 27.

[Barnes]

Former Victorian Premier Denis Napthine is set to retire from Parliament and resign his seat of South-West Coast this week.

He's also being joined by his Transport Minister when in government, Terry Mudler, who is stepping down from his seat of Polwarth.

Full story here.

The article speculates that Labor won't contest either but that the Nationals could try to make a challenge.

[Barnes]

I going to bet at about 52-48 Lib win, although I could see a variance of about one point either way. 

[Barnes]

I dunno what's going on. I was thinking Labor might pinch this earlier on, but the polls have been pretty pessimistic for Labor.

I'll say 51/49 Liberals, I guess.

Even getting this close would be a huge win for Labor, 'pessimistic' is a relative term. We can't be too greedy.

My thoughts exactly. We have to remember that numerically a win for the ALP would require a very big swing. Any result that cuts the Liberal margin to 6% or less would be a very solid result.

[Barnes]

I dunno what's going on. I was thinking Labor might pinch this earlier on, but the polls have been pretty pessimistic for Labor.

I'll say 51/49 Liberals, I guess.

Even getting this close would be a huge win for Labor, 'pessimistic' is a relative term. We can't be too greedy.

My thoughts exactly. We have to remember that numerically a win for the ALP would require a very big swing. Any result that cuts the Liberal margin to 6% or less would be a very solid result.

Keep in mind, that the average swing in the face of a sitting-member's death (over resignation or retirement) is under 3%. So keep that in mind.

I was going to reference that figure in my earlier post, but I couldn't remember the number - thanks for doing the work for me, Polnut!

With the polling normalizing around a 51-49 Liberal win, that's a swing of about 10%, which would be an extremely impressive result for Labor.

[Barnes]

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So, considering they're losing 4-5% when polling previous vs respondent-allocated, I would not be happy or comfortable with this if I were the Libs.

Oh, dear they are in a bit of a pickle aren't they?  Abbott has refused to commit today to what margin is a "good margin" for Hastie - just that he wants him to win.

Last week in Question Time Abbott made some comment about how he "prays to God that he [Hastie] wins."  You can tell the reasons as to why he's praying...

[Barnes]

Given the tumultuous week that we've had, I think we all deserve a re-do of our predictions.

I'll say between 53-54% Liberal on 2PP - which is really only a one to two point swing from my previous prediction.

[Barnes]

There will obviously be lots of spin on both sides, but I will say that a 7% swing is pretty large regardless of what earlier polls were saying.

[Barnes]

Neither postal nor pre-poll votes have been counted yet, so I think the swing will go over 7% or there abouts.

[Barnes]

There will obviously be lots of spin on both sides, but I will say that a 7% swing is pretty large regardless of what earlier polls were saying.

Not spinning - but this isn't THAT great of an outcome.

Sorry, not that great for who? It's definitely a let down from how Labor was polling, but still pretty large change.

[Barnes]

Yeah, sorry, I just wanted to check your meaning.

I absolutely agree with your above post.

[Barnes]

Joe Hockey is set to resign his seat of North Sydney in the near future triggering a by-election in the Liberal stronghold.