By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

[morgieb]

Hard to tell who wins here. Generally most by-elections don't experience a further swing towards the party in power, but Rudd had a strong personal vote and the Libs do have a good candidate. However, there doesn't seem to be much momentum with the new government.

Gonna say this leans in Labor's direction.

[morgieb]

Can't believe the pessimism from some of my fellow Laborites. When was the last time the incumbent party gained a seat in a by-election?

[morgieb]

Gonna say it'll be the same result as last time.

Interesting that there's been no polling and only one leaked internal.

[morgieb]

What would the result mean? Status quo yeah?

[morgieb]

3/2/1 most likely. PUP might have had a chance, but it feels like they're imploding and the Liberals are campaigning fairly well.

[morgieb]

2/1/1/1 looks certain ATM. Unfortunately though I suspect the Libs pick the final seat up from current numbers.

[morgieb]

The one thing I don't get is why the SDA (which given who shopkeepers are would have a heavily female-skewing membership) are so socially conservative/bigoted?

[morgieb]

On this note - and I've been wondering about this: Is the unusually high Greens vote in Australia correlated in any way to the fact that the Unions - and often very conservative unions at that - still have a lot of power over Labor selections?

Possibly. IMO it does have an impact, but I think the reason the main reason why the Greens vote is quite high comes down to IRV and compulsory voting (i.e. there are some protest voters voting Green, this however is possibly receding with the rise of the PUP).

[morgieb]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shop,_Distributive_and_Allied_Employees_Association#Criticism

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But this isn't even a union issue... so why is it important?

Because the leadership still thinks the labor movement hasn't evolved beyond the days of Bob Santamaria and the domination of the old-school Catholic Right... they think they still have the right to dictate national policy issues that have NOTHING to do with their remit.

That's an issue for the ALP not for the unions themselves.

It's also an issue for the unions. If I were a member, I wouldn't be happy than my dues are used to spread homophobia.

FACT: The SDA is why my mum doesn't vote ALP anymore.

[morgieb]

Looks like Labor should easily win it back.

[morgieb]

Both called for Labor

Swing to Labor in Newcastle slightly subdued, in no short part off the strength of the Greens. But it's a by-election and the Greens were always going to do well. Charlestown was a stonking ALP win - just over 20% swing on primaries and over 50%.

Worth noting the Independent in Newcastle was the de facto Liberal candidate, something they lacked in Charleston.

[morgieb]

In fact the Liberals did much better on the prepolls, oddly. They now have the surprising edge.

[morgieb]

I'd probably say Liberals 52-48, the seat is more blue-ribbon than Fisher. If the Liberals lose this......South Australia may finally have a Labor government in terms of time in government to rival the Playfair's and the JBP's of the world.

[morgieb]

Labor's conceded now apparently. Oh well, we still have a majority in South Australia anyway and Queensland is looking good.

[morgieb]

I dunno what's going on. I was thinking Labor might pinch this earlier on, but the polls have been pretty pessimistic for Labor.

I'll say 51/49 Liberals, I guess.