By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

[Talleyrand]

I'm going to be a pessimist and guess 51.5 LNP. I do think it'll be very close though, within 5 or 6 points.

[Talleyrand]

I'm going to be a pessimist and guess 51.5 LNP. I do think it'll be very close though, within 5 or 6 points.

Are there any times in which you aren't pessimistic?

I think so...

Also,

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http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/bill-glasson-calls-in-the-lnp-big-guns-for-griffith-poll-launch/story-fnii5v6w-1226815813177

Maybe they're just trying to downplay expectations, but not welcome news regardless.

[Talleyrand]

I think I'll go with 50.5% LNP on this one, even though the internal apparently shows the ALP on 53%. The Liberals might just be trying to downplay expectations by claiming they have "no chance".

[Talleyrand]

Is there any chance the ALP will bump Joe Bullock down to its 2nd or 3rd slot?

[Talleyrand]

Is there any chance the ALP will bump Joe Bullock down to its 2nd or 3rd slot?

No... virtually none.

This is ridiculous. Not sure why he got the top spot in the first place.

[Talleyrand]

Pratt was 100% correct when she asked for the the party to reconsider its top three candidates on the ballot.

[Talleyrand]

I'm predicting 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green, and 1 Hemp. Think ALP vote will be around 23-24% and Liberals just fall short of 3 quotas outright. Greens should get a full quota.

[Talleyrand]

It's on a 7% margin. I suspect the LNP will hold onto lose it narrowly, but regain it next year.

[Talleyrand]

Labor won't win this; the seat is far more Liberal than Fisher is. However, due to the circumstances mentioned above, they'll improve their vote. The question is whether it'll be a fairly small swing or a larger one. I'd expect the Libs to get around 54% personally.

[Talleyrand]

Labor's leading with 4/9 booths in.

[Talleyrand]

Looks like the Nationals have held it, but the notional count is against the Greens. Curious to see what the National v. Liberal count will be in the end.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/nationals-hold-gippsland-south-in-byelection-20150314-1447tj.html

[Talleyrand]

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Post I made about it when Randall died. Another interesting thing to note is that at the state election in 2013 (when the Coalition won 57% of the vote, only 1% less than the 58% they won at the federal election the same year), the areas in Canning voted only 55% Liberal. Granted, that's at least partly due to the fact that there are some incumbent Labor MLAs whose districts are in the seat, but it suggests Randall had a very strong personal following in the seat.

Randall's daughter running would make it more difficult for the ALP to get a big swing though. Their likely candidate is Matt Keogh, President of the WA Law Society.

Regardless of whether they win the seat or not however (and they're quite unlikely to do so in my view), the redistribution is likely to create a new marginal seat more friendly to Labor in this area.

[Talleyrand]

We finally get a poll where the TPP is believable based on the primary.

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/12/newspoll-51-49-to-liberal-in-canning/

[Talleyrand]

Ipsos has fairly similar numbers to Galaxy.

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/12/newspoll-51-49-to-liberal-in-canning/

[Talleyrand]

Antony Green has called the election for Andrew Hastie and the Liberals, with a swing of about 6% against them.

The current projected result is 54.8-45.2 (or a 7% swing), so it looks like Polnut hit the nail on the head with this one.

Strong momentum for Turnbull nonetheless.

[Talleyrand]

Former Treasurer Joe Hockey has officially resigned, and a byelection date of December 5th has been set for his safe Liberal seat of North Sydney. Trent Zimmerman, the state party president, has been preselected for the Liberals.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/27/north-sydney-by-election-december-5/