By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

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With the looming by-election in Griffith, recently vacated by Kevin Rudd, I thought I'd start a thread dedicated to by-elections in this Parliament.

Read the Poll Bludger's profile of the Griffith by-election here

As the article states, the earliest possible date is the 21st of December, although this will not go ahead, considering the proximity to Christmas.

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Hard to tell who wins here. Generally most by-elections don't experience a further swing towards the party in power, but Rudd had a strong personal vote and the Libs do have a good candidate. However, there doesn't seem to be much momentum with the new government.

Gonna say this leans in Labor's direction.

Considering a lot of the good Liberal territory in Griffith was shifted to Bonner in 2004, it's going to be difficult for the Liberals, or should I say LNP, to win here. We really have to wait and see who the candidates are first, though. For example: If Di Farmer, ex-member for the state seat Bulimba, is the Labor candidate, she will most likely win.

There's also the factor of the voters being dragged back to the polls, after Rudd said he would stay for the Parliament, although a lot of ex-Prime Minsters and Premiers, from both sides, do resign their seat should they lose their job as government leader. This is different to what happened in Miranda over in NSW recently, that dunce Graham Annesley quit half-way through his term.

Personally, I think both Rudd and Annesley should have committed to staying a full term, rather than cause by-elections, as neither of them died or became seriously ill, although that's getting off subject.

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The Palmer United Party will not be contesting Griffith:
http://palmerunited.com/2013/12/palmer-united-party-wont-contest-griffith/

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I'm going to be a pessimist and guess 51.5 LNP. I do think it'll be very close though, within 5 or 6 points.

Are there any times in which you aren't pessimistic?

I think so...

Also,

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http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/bill-glasson-calls-in-the-lnp-big-guns-for-griffith-poll-launch/story-fnii5v6w-1226815813177

Maybe they're just trying to downplay expectations, but not welcome news regardless.

It's hard to get anything from small samples, but it looks like a Miranda situation could be on the cards, regarding the sitting member vacating in a term.

I think this will be within 2 percent either side of the 50-50 mark. Gun to my head? Narrow Glasson win.

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2 booths are in (Holland Park West and Murrarie), with Labor first preference changes of -2.3% and 2.1% respectively.

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I don't pay attention until 5-10% of votes are in.

Neither do I really, you can never go off incredibly early returns. Unless it's incredibly close, I have a fair idea of how a seat will fall after a quarter to a third of votes are in.

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I'm calling it...

And it looks like Terri Butler is the new member for Griffith, got this one wrong.

Just beat me by a few seconds!

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Not a by-election per se, but it looks like my fellow Western Australians and I will be going back to the polls soon:

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/21534031/high-court-orders-new-senate-poll-for-wa/

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WA is going back to the polls on the 5th of April for the half-Senate election.

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Just voted a couple of hours ago, did my vote below the line. As others have said, I predict 3 Liberal, 2 Labor and 1 Green as the result.

At my local polling booth, the Liberal, Labor and Green campaign materials and volunteers were all in equal strength, I'd say Liberal and Green more so than Labor though, from what I saw. Not much of a Palmer presence at the polling booth, although there are plenty of Palmer United signs around my neighbourhood.

I'm sick of all the Palmer advertising - in the car, I heard three PUP advertisements in the space of one minute! Not to mention on YouTube, the DVDs he sent to people's letterboxes, on TV, and all the billboards and signs around town.

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Just voted a couple of hours ago, did my vote below the line. As others have said, I predict 3 Liberal, 2 Labor and 1 Green as the result.

So, the individual picked by yourself potatoes, instead of the pre-packaged potato bag, according to that silly ad of the AEC.

It's terrible geofocusing than I get them on various websites.

I haven't seen that AEC ad, but yes, individually picked potatoes for me, I never vote above the line.

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78 minutes until the polls close...

I think we'll know who 5 of the 6 Senators are going to be tonight.

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Have one of these: http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/senate/wa/ been placed on the ABC website yet? They were fun

Yes, here.  It's gone back to giving the third seat to the Liberals, though it's very close on the last count: 625 votes out of over 280,000.  (68.7% counted.)

Fingers crossed Reynolds wins the final seat...

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So ... this isn't technically an election of the current Federal Parliament - but there is the risk that if the NT Country Liberals do not win the Blaine by-election today - since they'd technically go into minority status (12/25) it could trigger a motion of no-confidence and an immediate election be called.

There's only been one poll (electorate-level polling caveat considered) and it has the CLP up 51-49 (off a previous CLP margin of 15%)... so a big swing it probably on, how big and it's impacts remains to be seen.

Antony Green also discussed it. Electorates are exceptionally small, so relatively few voters can result in massive swings, hence why margins up there are notoriously poor indicators of potential performance in a by-election. Personal vote is very important, too, for the same reason, so a by-election (or other retiring member at a general election) typically sees a strong swing against. Bearing in mind this was one of the few seats the CLP held in the landslide loss a few elections back, and the retiring member is the former Chief Minister (for foreign posters, the Territories don't have Premiers, they have Chief Ministers).

My thoughts on the Blain by-election: There will be a massive swing, I can see the result being within no more of 2% either way. I think the CLP will narrowly hold this, although I wouldn't rule out a shock Labor win.

Also, should Labor win Blain, the government will try and get the support of independent member for Nelson, Gerry Wood. If they can't, well, a new election could very well be on the cards, as Polnut said.

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So far, the swing isn't enough.

Seems to me on current figures, that the CLP are doing better than expected.

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I'd call it for the CLP quite easily - the primary got massacred, but it went to almost everywhere except the ALP.

I mean, it's really not that shocking - the NT Government is dysfunctional with a capital D, but if they voted for the ALP, or preferenced them highly, it almost guaranteed another election in 6-8 weeks time.

Just had a look at the result, you've got a good point about how if Labor won, another election would have rolled around shortly.

Still, considering the history of by-elections in the NT, and the poll published for Blain, the CLP have done a little better than expected, I was expecting a CLP win of no more than 2%.

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Looks like Labor should easily win it back.

One day out from the Stafford by-election, and I can't see anything else but a solid Labor win.

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It's on a 7% margin. I suspect the LNP will hold onto lose it narrowly, but regain it next year.

I disagree, Stafford is a Labor-leaning seat, and should be won with a Labor 2PP between 58-62% tonight. It was 5.7% more Labor than Queensland as a whole at the 2012 election.

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It's less ALP leaning than Redcliffe for example. What should ring serious warning bells for the LNP is that this is right next door and very similar to Campbell Newman's seat.

Talley... seriously? This was a debate about the margins.

Swing is sitting at 19% ... 19%

I thought Redcliffe was more of a swing seat than Stafford? Redcliffe was only an ALP+2.7 seat at the 2012 election, and was more solid than Stafford for the Liberal/Country Parties pre-1989.

A higher swing in Stafford than in Redcliffe is not good news for the Newman Government though.

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I'll go for a Liberal hold, but for Labor to gain around a 5% swing. As I said on another website, Labor winning Davenport is akin to Labor winning the likes of Churchlands or South Perth in WA.

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Full Davenport results here, not sure how many ballots are outstanding, but the Liberals have narrowly held it.

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Peter Ryan, former leader of the Victorian Nationals, is resigning his state seat of Gippsland South today.

Should be a fairly easy National retain, although it depends on whether a strong independent runs.

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The writ for the by-election in Gippsland South has be issued. Here's the timetable:

Close of Electoral Roll - 24 February
Final day for nominations - 27 February
Election Day - 14 March

So far, three candidates have nominated:

Legislative Council member and former Peter Ryan staffer Danny O'Brien (National)
Shire of Wellington mayor Scott Rossetti (Liberal)
Public servant and activist Andrea Millsom (Greens)

For those who don't know, the Victorian Liberals and Nationals have once again ended their coalition agreement, hence why they're running against each other.

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The writ for the by-election in Gippsland South has be issued. Here's the timetable:

Close of Electoral Roll - 24 February
Final day for nominations - 27 February
Election Day - 14 March

So far, three candidates have nominated:

Legislative Council member and former Peter Ryan staffer Danny O'Brien (National)
Shire of Wellington mayor Scott Rossetti (Liberal)
Public servant and activist Andrea Millsom (Greens)

For those who don't know, the Victorian Liberals and Nationals have once again ended their coalition agreement, hence why they're running against each other.

The Coalition Agreement hasn't ended, Liberals and Nationals together form the Shadow Cabinet. The Age reported (regarding a Liberal candidacy):

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My bad, I thought it did for some reason. Good to hear it hasn't, and I can see why both Coalition candidates are running - I don't think another Shepparton would be good for the Coalition.