By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

[Hifly]

I'm surprised by the lack of leaked internal polling I've seen for Griffith.

[Hifly]

Butler should win this by at least 4 points.

[Hifly]

I don't know if Labor's plan to make this a referendum on Tony Abbott is smart...in the highly likely event that the Libs do better than last time surely that would show that their opinion on Tony Abbott has improved then according to this logic?

[Hifly]

What would the result mean? Status quo yeah?

That's what I think. Neither a win for Labor nor the Libs, although the Libs have the advantage of bragging that they improved their vote from last time despite grim national polls.

[Hifly]

So... Glasson frankly looks ridiculous.

Not as ridiculous as Butler who had a reasonably piss poor performance when you consider the national level of support for the government.
Looking at the headlines this seems like a mild win for the LNP.

[Hifly]

Is there any chance the ALP will bump Joe Bullock down to its 2nd or 3rd slot?

No... virtually none.

This is ridiculous. Not sure why he got the top spot in the first place.

Because he is the right faction candidate, SDA union official and Louise Pratt is not socially conservative enough to get the appeal of the SDA and deserve to hold the top spot on the Labor ticket. The most hilarious thing would be if the unions decide to demote Louise Pratt to third place as they potentially could do by splitting the preselection vote if there is fresh one.

[Hifly]

If the Labor Party isn't ideologically pure enough for you social liberals then you should join the Green Party.

EDIT: Watch it. -El Caudillo

EDIT 2: This is a non-partisan forum so your warning is not acceptable.

EDIT 3: Generally we like to keep the tone here comparatively civil. The problem here is not your views, but the manner of their expression. Keep it civil and this won't happen again. - Boardbashi

[Hifly]

If the Labor Party isn't ideologically pure enough for you social libtards then you should join the Green Party.

It's less about "idealogical purity", it's about extremely basic party politics. Polticians shouldn't publically bicker with their own running mates. The public have little interest in your petty internal politics and the press are very interested in turning you into a soap opera. This was a gross miscalculation by Bullock, who will probably be forced into a grovelling retraction of his views.

I'd say the same thing if Pratt had publicly said "Joe Bullock is a tiny willied troglodyte. You should probs vote Green".

(Also speculating upon an opponent's sexuality is bad enough, let alone one of your allies)

Pratt is not Bullock's "ally", or else Bullock wouldn't have dumped her from the number one spot on the ticket. Bullock has the high ground here: he is an official in Australia's largest union and thus wields power within the party to an extent that Pratt and her liberal allies could never even dream of commanding. It is within his full rights to say what he said and the ALP would never reprimand him or else their funding would go down the drain. His union is the largest power block within the ALP.

[Hifly]

This sort of factional infighting has always been the case, regardless of the optics, and such kind of internal reform won't be instituted without support of the unions.
Right faction officials including Joe Bullock control preselections and so it's within their realm to choose these sorts of candidates. If only Louise Pratt didn't support gay marriage she may have kept the number one spot.

[Hifly]

The postal votes are beginning to be counted, and unsurprisingly they're coming in extremely favourably to the Liberals, who are running way above their election day margins.
It's all but assured that Louise Pratt is gone and the following candidates have been elected:

1. David Johnston - Liberal
2. Joe Bullock - Labor
3. Scott Ludlam - Green
4. Michaelia Cash - Liberal
5. Zhenya Wang - PUP
6. Linda Reynolds - Liberal

That makes for an astonishing 4 seats for the Right and 2 for the Left (including Bullock). I honestly wasn't expecting this.
The question now is how much support did Bullock's comments cost Labor, if any?  

[Hifly]

She's just throwing a hissy fit and forgetting that she was preselected to the number one spot using the very same preselection methods in 2007 (and thus owes her entire political career to this factionalism), that over a third of the caucus don't support same-sex marriage, as well as the fact that the SDA is the party's largest donor so they naturally ought to have a right to preselect who they want under the ALP's own rules.

[Hifly]

The one thing I don't get is why the SDA (which given who shopkeepers are would have a heavily female-skewing membership) are so socially conservative/bigoted?

The SDA has been ruled by Catholics since virtually the beginning of time. This is down to the way that the SDA elects it's leaders and officials. We already know who Joe de Bruyn's successor is despite there having been no election. The SDA also has a de facto policy not to appoint gays and political opponents of the national leadership to any position of power within the union either.