Florida-shifts-away-from-republicans-with-minority-influx

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's interesting how quickly the narrative surrounding Florida has shifted: it used to be that we were writing it off as conservative midwestern retirees settled there instead of NYC Jews. Now that Cuban-Americans are a bloc of swing-ish voters, everything has changed. I think that Democrats will actively win them over in the coming years: they're too urban and too culturally foreign for the GOP to garner majority support from them so long as Democrats can build up a strong Cuban outreach in Florida that includes a good bench of Cuban politicians.

Maybe I'm just sleep-deprived but I think in the current political climate, even the descendants  fascist refugees must find themselves out of place in the modern GOP. Marco Rubio's fall from grace due to his unabashed support of immigration reform says it all.

[Non Swing Voter]

but this state election vs. federal election is what is killing the GOP.  By winning these somewhat gerrymandered state elections and off year elections generally, they have false hope that they are competitive nationally, when in reality they are getting less and less competitive nationally.  The fact that we are even talking about Florida moving away from the GOP should be very troubling for them.  Democrats already have several big states they can count on: California, New York, Illinois, etc...

Without Florida, there is no way Republicans can win a Presidential election.

Winning state races in off-year elections is just distracting Republicans from the fact that they are becoming less competitive nationally.

Yeah but winning Governers Races is a big deal though.

Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio all had Republican governors in 2012 I believe and they all went for Obama.

I guess it's a big deal in the sense that many of the laws that impact your day to day lives are determined more by governors than presidents, but in terms of building a national party, winning these governors races didn't really help them much in 2012.

Why does that matter? In the long term having strong local parties is far more important then a strong national one. It only takes one big scandal or an economic downturn to wipe away the strength of a national party and when that happens whoever is best utilizing the laboratories of democracy will stand to gain. One or two Presidential elections don't really matter in the long term.

I like how Republicans make up false premises to bolster their arguments.  The GOP hasn't lost one or two presidential elections, they've lost 4 of the last 6 and they've lost the popular vote 5 of the last 6 times, and the swing states are generally trending away from them.  the fact that you are winning off year elections when turnout is like 30% and a large sum of those who did actually turn out will probably die within the next 10 years is meaningless.

[Non Swing Voter]

It's interesting how quickly the narrative surrounding Florida has shifted: it used to be that we were writing it off as conservative midwestern retirees settled there instead of NYC Jews. Now that Cuban-Americans are a bloc of swing-ish voters, everything has changed. I think that Democrats will actively win them over in the coming years: they're too urban and too culturally foreign for the GOP to garner majority support from them so long as Democrats can build up a strong Cuban outreach in Florida that includes a good bench of Cuban politicians.

Maybe I'm just sleep-deprived but I think in the current political climate, even the descendants  fascist refugees must find themselves out of place in the modern GOP. Marco Rubio's fall from grace due to his unabashed support of immigration reform says it all.

The main problem for the GOP with Cuban voters is they are integrating.  A lot of under 18 Cubans are actually mixed Cuban/Puerto Rican, Cuban/Black, or Cuban/Anglo... and all those groups in Miami are voting Democrat.

[hopper]

It's interesting how quickly the narrative surrounding Florida has shifted: it used to be that we were writing it off as conservative midwestern retirees settled there instead of NYC Jews. Now that Cuban-Americans are a bloc of swing-ish voters, everything has changed. I think that Democrats will actively win them over in the coming years: they're too urban and too culturally foreign for the GOP to garner majority support from them so long as Democrats can build up a strong Cuban outreach in Florida that includes a good bench of Cuban politicians.

Maybe I'm just sleep-deprived but I think in the current political climate, even the descendants  fascist refugees must find themselves out of place in the modern GOP. Marco Rubio's fall from grace due to his unabashed support of immigration reform says it all.

You guys all overrating fall from grace or whatever you want to call it. Do you actually think the US House was gonna pass the "Gang of 8 US Senate Bill"? I don't think so.

[hopper]

but this state election vs. federal election is what is killing the GOP.  By winning these somewhat gerrymandered state elections and off year elections generally, they have false hope that they are competitive nationally, when in reality they are getting less and less competitive nationally.  The fact that we are even talking about Florida moving away from the GOP should be very troubling for them.  Democrats already have several big states they can count on: California, New York, Illinois, etc...

Without Florida, there is no way Republicans can win a Presidential election.

Winning state races in off-year elections is just distracting Republicans from the fact that they are becoming less competitive nationally.

Yeah but winning Governers Races is a big deal though.

Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio all had Republican governors in 2012 I believe and they all went for Obama.

I guess it's a big deal in the sense that many of the laws that impact your day to day lives are determined more by governors than presidents, but in terms of building a national party, winning these governors races didn't really help them much in 2012.

Why does that matter? In the long term having strong local parties is far more important then a strong national one. It only takes one big scandal or an economic downturn to wipe away the strength of a national party and when that happens whoever is best utilizing the laboratories of democracy will stand to gain. One or two Presidential elections don't really matter in the long term.

I like how Republicans make up false premises to bolster their arguments.  The GOP hasn't lost one or two presidential elections, they've lost 4 of the last 6 and they've lost the popular vote 5 of the last 6 times, and the swing states are generally trending away from them.  the fact that you are winning off year elections when turnout is like 30% and a large sum of those who did actually turn out will probably die within the next 10 years is meaningless.

40% but ok. The GOP can compete at the state level its the federal level that is all their problems. The Tea Party really doesn't give a hoot about state level politics its the federal level that they don't like anything and want to oust establishment politicians of both parties.

The average age of those participating is 70 years old since you saying those who are participating in off-year elections. I don't think so.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The people won't listen to the GOP until they stop advocating for policies that are chasing those voters away.

It's like all of the noise after 2012 was "well, we need to speak to minorities, young people and women"... OK... and what is being done to attract those voters? You can't just have some kind of broad 'vision' unless you've got the policies. You can talk about that all you want, but if the only noises people are hearing from the GOP is anti-immigration, anti-gay, getting more an more tied up with women's bodies and purging people who can speak to those constituencies... nobody will care about the 'vision'.

"Yeah, I want everyone to achieve... while at the same time, we're not interested in immigration reform, we're going to impose our narrow view on all women, we're going to shut down the government, we're going to not only not advance gay marriage but drag the issue backwards" I know it upsets a lot of GOPers that these issues matter, but they do... and until you moderate on them, you've not got a chance in hell of winning, when you're THAT out of touch.

[Person Man]

The people won't listen to the GOP until they stop advocating for policies that are chasing those voters away.

It's like all of the noise after 2012 was "well, we need to speak to minorities, young people and women"... OK... and what is being done to attract those voters? You can't just have some kind of broad 'vision' unless you've got the policies. You can talk about that all you want, but if the only noises people are hearing from the GOP is anti-immigration, anti-gay, getting more an more tied up with women's bodies and purging people who can speak to those constituencies... nobody will care about the 'vision'.

"Yeah, I want everyone to achieve... while at the same time, we're not interested in immigration reform, we're going to impose our narrow view on all women, we're going to shut down the government, we're going to not only not advance gay marriage but drag the issue backwards" I know it upsets a lot of GOPers that these issues matter, but they do... and until you moderate on them, you've not got a chance in hell of winning, when you're THAT out of touch.

Of course they have token women, gays and minorities but it has been mixed how people respond to that. People will either see them in a way that makes them and their party look good because they are "putting the "common good" before their own interests" or it makes them and their party look bad because they are "sell outs" or have identity issues.

[Devils30]

FL is actually a pretty tough state for the Dems to gerrymander if they ever had a shot. With the Fair Districts law you can't draw a metro Orlando to West Palm Beach district or have one running from inner city Tampa all the way down to Naples.

[Non Swing Voter]

but this state election vs. federal election is what is killing the GOP.  By winning these somewhat gerrymandered state elections and off year elections generally, they have false hope that they are competitive nationally, when in reality they are getting less and less competitive nationally.  The fact that we are even talking about Florida moving away from the GOP should be very troubling for them.  Democrats already have several big states they can count on: California, New York, Illinois, etc...

Without Florida, there is no way Republicans can win a Presidential election.

Winning state races in off-year elections is just distracting Republicans from the fact that they are becoming less competitive nationally.

Yeah but winning Governers Races is a big deal though.

Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio all had Republican governors in 2012 I believe and they all went for Obama.

I guess it's a big deal in the sense that many of the laws that impact your day to day lives are determined more by governors than presidents, but in terms of building a national party, winning these governors races didn't really help them much in 2012.

Why does that matter? In the long term having strong local parties is far more important then a strong national one. It only takes one big scandal or an economic downturn to wipe away the strength of a national party and when that happens whoever is best utilizing the laboratories of democracy will stand to gain. One or two Presidential elections don't really matter in the long term.

I like how Republicans make up false premises to bolster their arguments.  The GOP hasn't lost one or two presidential elections, they've lost 4 of the last 6 and they've lost the popular vote 5 of the last 6 times, and the swing states are generally trending away from them.  the fact that you are winning off year elections when turnout is like 30% and a large sum of those who did actually turn out will probably die within the next 10 years is meaningless.

40% but ok. The GOP can compete at the state level its the federal level that is all their problems. The Tea Party really doesn't give a hoot about state level politics its the federal level that they don't like anything and want to oust establishment politicians of both parties.

The average age of those participating is 70 years old since you saying those who are participating in off-year elections. I don't think so.

I don't even know what you were trying to say.  Not sure why the state level politics are even relevant to this discussion in the Presidential Elections forum.

[Non Swing Voter]

FL is actually a pretty tough state for the Dems to gerrymander if they ever had a shot. With the Fair Districts law you can't draw a metro Orlando to West Palm Beach district or have one running from inner city Tampa all the way down to Naples.

Many states are this way.  Republicans have a natural advantage in the house, they have just magnified it a bit through gerrymandering.

[hopper]

The people won't listen to the GOP until they stop advocating for policies that are chasing those voters away.

It's like all of the noise after 2012 was "well, we need to speak to minorities, young people and women"... OK... and what is being done to attract those voters? You can't just have some kind of broad 'vision' unless you've got the policies. You can talk about that all you want, but if the only noises people are hearing from the GOP is anti-immigration, anti-gay, getting more an more tied up with women's bodies and purging people who can speak to those constituencies... nobody will care about the 'vision'.

"Yeah, I want everyone to achieve... while at the same time, we're not interested in immigration reform, we're going to impose our narrow view on all women, we're going to shut down the government, we're going to not only not advance gay marriage but drag the issue backwards" I know it upsets a lot of GOPers that these issues matter, but they do... and until you moderate on them, you've not got a chance in hell of winning, when you're THAT out of touch.

1st point you are mostly right about: All the noise about appealing to minorities, and women(this is mostly non-white women by the way that they have a problem with in voting for the GOP) is that  yes they don't have the policies at the federal level to win those voter groups. My opinion is that lasted about 15 minutes oh we have to do this that and the other thing to appeal to these groups after the 2012 election...well the Tea Party put the kibosh on that. If the GOP ever wanted to appeal to those groups you would see a lot of Tea Party Challenges to those members to those candidates that wanted to appeal to minorities, women, and younger voters. The Tea Party policies don't appeal to those 3 voter groups. The RNC "Autopsy Report" appears to have been a waste of money in my opinion and is basically on sitting a shelf somewhere collecting dust unless the Republicans want to get wise and dust it off and get it off the shelf over at the RNC.

They are too obsessed with the whole abortion issue. I have said that a couple times on this board. I don't live in the Bible Belt so I don't understand the whole obsession over the abortion topic. As Charlie Cook says can they(the Republicans) turn down the volume on the social issues?

The GOP is not anti-immigration they are anti-illegal immigration and they are not anti-gay they just believe marriage is between one man and one woman, nothing wrong with that. I don't understand why people think the issue of gay marriage is the begin and end all. I do believe in gay marriage(yes I have evolved)but its really not a top issue to the voting public right now the economy is. Some GOP'ers are interested in immigration reform some are not. That's just the way it is.

What people are the GOP purging? What people are you talking about?