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Author Topic: South Australian Parliamentary Elections Thread (March 15, 2014)  (Read 5872 times)
Frodo
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« on: November 15, 2013, 12:35:58 am »
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SA Opposition Leader Steven Marshall and Liberal Party take 54-46 lead over Labor in exclusive poll

STATE POLITICAL EDITOR DANIEL WILLS
THE ADVERTISER
NOVEMBER 14, 2013 4:00PM

EXCLUSIVE new polling shows the Liberal Party positioned for victory at the March state election and holding a commanding 54-46 statewide lead over the Labor Government.

The poll of 860 people was taken exclusively for The Advertiser on Wednesday night by Galaxy Research.

It shows both primary and two-party support for the Liberals has risen since the 2010 election, but Labor has clawed back ground since a horror 59-41 result in the March Advertiser poll.

On a two-party basis, backing for the Liberals has increased to 54 from 51.6 per cent at the 2010 election.

Applied uniformly, the 2.4 per cent swing would hand the Liberals at least five Labor-held seats.

Labor's governing majority in State Parliament would be lost and the Liberals placed one seat short of forming power in their own right. There are also three independents in State Parliament's Lower House and all face fierce challenges from Liberal candidates.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2014, 07:42:10 pm by Frodo »Logged

morgieb
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« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2013, 12:46:20 am »
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Does the Mad Monk winning the PM-ship affect the race? I don't think the Libs will lose here, but it will be closer than Tassie and they'll save some furniture at least.
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Smid
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2013, 01:09:23 am »
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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2013, 02:05:38 am »
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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.
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morgieb
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2013, 02:25:29 am »
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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.
Oh yeah, he was a mega douche IIRC.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2013, 10:46:07 pm »
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I've made a PVI index graph, displaying South Australian electoral districts' trends over the past two decades.

A few things to note:
  • The major trends in Light and Mawson from 2006-2010.
  • Likewise, how Flinders and MacKillop showed a major trend to Labor in 2010.
  • Some data for a couple of seats, Chaffey and Mount Gambier off the top of my head, is not on the chart as I couldn't find ALP vs LIB figures for a few elections. This was because Chaffey was a National held seat, and Mount Gambier being an Independent-held seat.
  • Just because there's a massive swing to one side or the other, like 1997, doesn't mean a lot of seats will trend in the same, in 1997, a significant number of seats trended Liberal, despite Labor gaining a lot of seats.
  • A positive score indicates a Labor lean, and a negative score a Liberal lean.



A larger version is available in the Gallery, and the raw data is available from me by email on request.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2013, 10:56:41 pm by Anton Kreitzer »Logged

Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2013, 03:05:41 am »
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With Holden wrapping up car production, how will this affect the election?

http://www.skynews.com.au/feature/sf4/article.aspx?id=933457

I think it will be a factor, although won't be too much of an impact - this was inevitable for years anyway.
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Platypus
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« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2013, 07:36:13 am »
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It won't hurt Labor's chances, that's for sure.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2013, 10:23:56 am »
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It won't hurt Labor's chances, that's for sure.

While I think Labor will lose, I don't think they will go down like they did in '93. I'll give Labor a 25-30% chance of winning. Even with the Holden factor, the election environment isn't too good for them:

  • Third terms are hard to win in South Australian politics - the 1975, 1989 and 2010 elections all resulted in third terms for incumbent Labor governments, in all three cases, the government was returned with a minority of the 2PP vote, and in the first two cases, they were minority governments.
  • The last fourth consecutive election victory in SA politics was Labor's win in 1977. As far as I know, Premier Weatherill does not have the appeal Don Dunstan had back in the 1970s, and Labor lost the first election (1979) after Dunstan's retirement.
  • The Liberals have a young, fresh leader, literally (he's a freshman MP).

Labor, however, are fairly strong in SA, particularly at the state level, while SA has gone very blue at times, out of the 13 elections since the end of the Playmander in 1970, Labor have won 10 of these, although only 7 of these were majority of governments. The Liberals have won 2 majority and 1 minority government since 1970.

I also wonder how your stereotypical driver of a "fully sick (insert model) SS" would vote now... a lot of them seem to be the sort that voted for One Nation in the late 90s, possibly Palmer this year, but are otherwise politically apathetic.
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Smid
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« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2013, 05:59:20 pm »
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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.

The thing is, Labor still have a seats lead following the redistribution, despite losing the statewide 2PP and the "fairness" clause in the Electoral Boundaries Act.

I've almost finished the new base map. I should have it uploaded before Christmas.
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Platypus
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« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2013, 06:17:08 pm »
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As a Commodore SV6 driver, who fully intended to buy Holden for life, I can give at least one point to the fully sikkers voting Labor Tongue
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2013, 08:49:11 pm »
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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.

The thing is, Labor still have a seats lead following the redistribution, despite losing the statewide 2PP and the "fairness" clause in the Electoral Boundaries Act.

I've almost finished the new base map. I should have it uploaded before Christmas.

Looking forward to the maps, and while it's crummy about the post-redistribution result, at least Bright is notionally Liberal now, and Light has had some of its strong Labor territory removed, while Ashford, Elder and Hartley are very much low hanging fruit now. Mawson, on the other hand, has become stronger for Labor, although should still go back to the Liberals.

So while the post-redistribution map might not be much of an improvement, at least there's some silver lining on the cloud.
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Smid
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« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2013, 08:54:30 pm »
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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.

The thing is, Labor still have a seats lead following the redistribution, despite losing the statewide 2PP and the "fairness" clause in the Electoral Boundaries Act.

I've almost finished the new base map. I should have it uploaded before Christmas.

Looking forward to the maps, and while it's crummy about the post-redistribution result, at least Bright is notionally Liberal now, and Light has had some of its strong Labor territory removed, while Ashford, Elder and Hartley are very much low hanging fruit now. Mawson, on the other hand, has become stronger for Labor, although should still go back to the Liberals.

So while the post-redistribution map might not be much of an improvement, at least there's some silver lining on the cloud.

Part of it is also that all three independent-held seats are notional Liberal seats vs Labor.

Anyway, no need to "look forward" to the maps, I'll post them in a moment!
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Smid
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2013, 08:55:34 pm »
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2012 South Australian Redistribution - Notional 2PP Election Map



Obviously it's also available in the gallery for download.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2013, 09:18:31 pm »
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Obviously, a fair map doesn't ensure than the popular vote winner will win the election especially when a pary has its vote concentrated in an area. In Canada, see Manitoba (Progressive-Conservatives are doing 70%-80% in rural area, but lose all urban seats by a close margin) or Quebec (Liberals are doing 80%-90% in the anglophone seats, but it doesn't help to win swing districts).
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2013, 09:27:32 pm »
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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.

The thing is, Labor still have a seats lead following the redistribution, despite losing the statewide 2PP and the "fairness" clause in the Electoral Boundaries Act.

I've almost finished the new base map. I should have it uploaded before Christmas.

Looking forward to the maps, and while it's crummy about the post-redistribution result, at least Bright is notionally Liberal now, and Light has had some of its strong Labor territory removed, while Ashford, Elder and Hartley are very much low hanging fruit now. Mawson, on the other hand, has become stronger for Labor, although should still go back to the Liberals.

So while the post-redistribution map might not be much of an improvement, at least there's some silver lining on the cloud.

Part of it is also that all three independent-held seats are notional Liberal seats vs Labor.

Anyway, no need to "look forward" to the maps, I'll post them in a moment!

Maps are all looking good, as for those 3 independent seats, here's some early insight:

Fisher (Bob Such) - A member since 1989, Such will be hard to dislodge, the Liberals will only pick this one up if he retires.
Frome (Geoff Brock) - He's won 2 elections, the second by a strong margin. Hard to say at this stage.
Mount Gambier (Don Pegler) - Just the one victory, very narrow as well, good chance of a  Liberal pick-up, although Mount Gambier was expected to return to form in 2010. Very dependent on Pegler's performance as a member.

I'll post my predictions of every seat sometime in the New Year.
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Smid
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2013, 02:03:57 am »
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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.

The thing is, Labor still have a seats lead following the redistribution, despite losing the statewide 2PP and the "fairness" clause in the Electoral Boundaries Act.

I've almost finished the new base map. I should have it uploaded before Christmas.

Looking forward to the maps, and while it's crummy about the post-redistribution result, at least Bright is notionally Liberal now, and Light has had some of its strong Labor territory removed, while Ashford, Elder and Hartley are very much low hanging fruit now. Mawson, on the other hand, has become stronger for Labor, although should still go back to the Liberals.

So while the post-redistribution map might not be much of an improvement, at least there's some silver lining on the cloud.

Part of it is also that all three independent-held seats are notional Liberal seats vs Labor.

Anyway, no need to "look forward" to the maps, I'll post them in a moment!

Maps are all looking good, as for those 3 independent seats, here's some early insight:

Fisher (Bob Such) - A member since 1989, Such will be hard to dislodge, the Liberals will only pick this one up if he retires.
Frome (Geoff Brock) - He's won 2 elections, the second by a strong margin. Hard to say at this stage.
Mount Gambier (Don Pegler) - Just the one victory, very narrow as well, good chance of a  Liberal pick-up, although Mount Gambier was expected to return to form in 2010. Very dependent on Pegler's performance as a member.

I'll post my predictions of every seat sometime in the New Year.

I realised I should have clarified earlier. They're notional Liberal vs Labor 2PP, but still Independent ahead on 2CP. The map I posted was 2PP, obviously.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2013, 06:30:45 am »
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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.

The thing is, Labor still have a seats lead following the redistribution, despite losing the statewide 2PP and the "fairness" clause in the Electoral Boundaries Act.

I've almost finished the new base map. I should have it uploaded before Christmas.

Looking forward to the maps, and while it's crummy about the post-redistribution result, at least Bright is notionally Liberal now, and Light has had some of its strong Labor territory removed, while Ashford, Elder and Hartley are very much low hanging fruit now. Mawson, on the other hand, has become stronger for Labor, although should still go back to the Liberals.

So while the post-redistribution map might not be much of an improvement, at least there's some silver lining on the cloud.

Part of it is also that all three independent-held seats are notional Liberal seats vs Labor.

Anyway, no need to "look forward" to the maps, I'll post them in a moment!

Maps are all looking good, as for those 3 independent seats, here's some early insight:

Fisher (Bob Such) - A member since 1989, Such will be hard to dislodge, the Liberals will only pick this one up if he retires.
Frome (Geoff Brock) - He's won 2 elections, the second by a strong margin. Hard to say at this stage.
Mount Gambier (Don Pegler) - Just the one victory, very narrow as well, good chance of a  Liberal pick-up, although Mount Gambier was expected to return to form in 2010. Very dependent on Pegler's performance as a member.

I'll post my predictions of every seat sometime in the New Year.

I realised I should have clarified earlier. They're notional Liberal vs Labor 2PP, but still Independent ahead on 2CP. The map I posted was 2PP, obviously.

I knew the 2PP map was Liberal vs Labor in all seats, I was just posting my thoughts on how the independent members may fare next year. Thanks for the clarification by the way.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2013, 09:58:17 am by Anton Kreitzer »Logged

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« Reply #18 on: December 23, 2013, 08:35:07 am »
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Newspoll is out!

Primary Vote

Liberal- 40% (-4)
Labor- 33% (+1)
Greens- 10%
Others- 17% (+3)

2PP

Liberal- 53% (-3)
Labor- 47% (+3)

Jay Weatherill Ratings

Approve- 43% (-4)
Disapprove- 37% (+2)

Steven Marshall Ratings

Approve- 43% (+2)
Disapprove- 21% (+1)

Preferred Premier

Jay Weatherill- 40% (-1)
Steven Marshall- 29% (-1)



It looks like the defeat of the Rudd-Gillard government has made the government's standing more respectable in the polls, but they're still heading for a loss.
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« Reply #19 on: December 23, 2013, 10:51:32 am »
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Labor can hold government with a result like that!
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #20 on: January 10, 2014, 01:06:19 am »
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No guide from Antony Green yet, but the Tally Room has started posting their guide to the SA election:

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/sa2014
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« Reply #21 on: January 13, 2014, 10:15:38 pm »
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Are there any prominent Ministers or high-profile Labor members who are perceived to be at major risk of losing their electorates this election? And who would be poised to lead the party into opposition in the event of a loss?
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« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2014, 04:47:45 am »
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Are there any prominent Ministers or high-profile Labor members who are perceived to be at major risk of losing their electorates this election? And who would be poised to lead the party into opposition in the event of a loss?

Cabinet minister Tom Kenyon holds a very marginal seat and is at great risk of losing it. You probably wouldn't like the guy:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/mp-slammed-for-same-sex-swipe-at-wong/story-fn59niix-1226165315556
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2014, 07:48:10 pm »
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Are there any prominent Ministers or high-profile Labor members who are perceived to be at major risk of losing their electorates this election? And who would be poised to lead the party into opposition in the event of a loss?

Cabinet minister Tom Kenyon holds a very marginal seat and is at great risk of losing it. You probably wouldn't like the guy:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/mp-slammed-for-same-sex-swipe-at-wong/story-fn59niix-1226165315556

In addition to Kenyon losing Newland (ALP 2.7%):

Chloe Fox in Bright - post-redistribution, Bright is notionally Liberal, with a notional Liberal margin of 0.1%.

Grace Portolesi in Hartley (ALP 0.5%) - Labor's 2nd most marginal seat, Portolesi was involved in a child abuse scandal, although was cleared of this by the Royal Commissioner. I don't know the full story though, as I'm not that familiar with SA politics.

Leon Bignell in Mawson (ALP 4.9%) - Mawson has gone with the government at every election since 1970, with the exception of 2002. In the 2002 it stayed with the Liberals, who won the 2PP vote statewide, but lost the election when Peter Lewis (IND-Hammond) backed a Rann Labor government.

Tony Piccolo in Light (ALP 4.2%) - The area in Light is changing, although could easy go blue again in a Liberal statewide victory. Light (and Mawson for that matter) actually swung to Labor in 2010, meaning they could swing back to the Liberals big time in 2014.

Jennifer Rankine in Wright (ALP 4.7%) - Considerably less likely than the other ministers I have mentioned, as Wright has more of a Labor lean than Light, Mawson, Newland, Hartley or Bright, but still possible. Also, very large swing last time here -  Wright had a margin of 15.3% going into 2010, more than double the margin in Bright, the safest of the other seats I've mentioned in this comment, which had a margin of 6.6% going into 2010.

Regarding Kenyon's comment about Wong, even if he didn't make it and/or didn't feel that way, I think he still would be a prime contender for losing his seat, given the electoral environment and Newland's voting history.

UPDATE 17/1/14: No idea as to who would lead Labor in opposition in the event of a loss.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2014, 09:04:19 pm by Anton Kreitzer »Logged

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« Reply #24 on: January 19, 2014, 02:41:36 pm »
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I think this one is going down to the wire. The polling trajectory is looking better for the Government, plus Wetherill still leads as preferred premier, something which IS a factor when the race is close.
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