South Australian Parliamentary Elections Thread (March 15, 2014)

[Talleyrand]

Are there any prominent Ministers or high-profile Labor members who are perceived to be at major risk of losing their electorates this election? And who would be poised to lead the party into opposition in the event of a loss?

Cabinet minister Tom Kenyon holds a very marginal seat and is at great risk of losing it. You probably wouldn't like the guy:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/mp-slammed-for-same-sex-swipe-at-wong/story-fn59niix-1226165315556

In addition to Kenyon losing Newland (ALP 2.7%):

Chloe Fox in Bright - post-redistribution, Bright is notionally Liberal, with a notional Liberal margin of 0.1%.

Grace Portolesi in Hartley (ALP 0.5%) - Labor's 2nd most marginal seat, Portolesi was involved in a child abuse scandal, although was cleared of this by the Royal Commissioner. I don't know the full story though, as I'm not that familiar with SA politics.

Leon Bignell in Mawson (ALP 4.9%) - Mawson has gone with the government at every election since 1970, with the exception of 2002. In the 2002 it stayed with the Liberals, who won the 2PP vote statewide, but lost the election when Peter Lewis (IND-Hammond) backed a Rann Labor government.

Tony Piccolo in Light (ALP 4.2%) - The area in Light is changing, although could easy go blue again in a Liberal statewide victory. Light (and Mawson for that matter) actually swung to Labor in 2010, meaning they could swing back to the Liberals big time in 2014.

Jennifer Rankine in Wright (ALP 4.7%) - Considerably less likely than the other ministers I have mentioned, as Wright has more of a Labor lean than Light, Mawson, Newland, Hartley or Bright, but still possible. Also, very large swing last time here -  Wright had a margin of 15.3% going into 2010, more than double the margin in Bright, the safest of the other seats I've mentioned in this comment, which had a margin of 6.6% going into 2010.

Regarding Kenyon's comment about Wong, even if he didn't make it and/or didn't feel that way, I think he still would be a prime contender for losing his seat, given the electoral environment and Newland's voting history.

UPDATE 17/1/14: No idea as to who would lead Labor in opposition in the event of a loss.

Would I be correct in saying the first three are probable Liberal gains at this point, and that Labor should be somewhat favored to retain the others you mentioned? The polls are currently only showing a small movement to the Liberals from the 2010 result, so it would seem like that could be a distinct possibility. It seems like the current result would be a narrow Liberal majority with a strong Labor opposition.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think expecting a uniform swing in this election is a bit of a folly. There will be some very weird swings in each direction exacerbated by local issues. And despite people saying 'State elections are about state issues... if the Libs fail to gain what was a fait accompli 6 months ago, it will reflect VERY badly on Abbott.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think this one is going down to the wire. The polling trajectory is looking better for the Government, plus Wetherill still leads as preferred premier, something which IS a factor when the race is close.

Any new polls since the Newspoll Talleyrand posted?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think expecting a uniform swing in this election is a bit of a folly. There will be some very weird swings in each direction exacerbated by local issues. And despite people saying 'State elections are about state issues... if the Libs fail to gain what was a fait accompli 6 months ago, it will reflect VERY badly on Abbott.

There were all different types of swings last SA election as well, I will post my predictions sometime next month.

[Frodo]

Let's suppose that Labor holds on -barely- to power this year.  In the long-term, would it be better for the Liberals to lose this year, with the certainty that four years hence they would be winning in a landslide due to voter fatigue with one-party rule?  

[You kip if you want to...]

In the long-term, would it be better for the Liberals to lose this year, with the certainty that four years hence they would be winning in a landslide due to voter fatigue with one-party rule?  

Well, it's never really good to lose an election...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Let's suppose that Labor holds on -barely- to power this year.  In the long-term, would it be better for the Liberals to lose this year, with the certainty that four years hence they would be winning in a landslide due to voter fatigue with one-party rule?  

That's kind of the thesis from the 2007 NSW election. In fairness, the ALP had no right to win that election, it just so happened that Debnam was an awful leader and they couldn't provide a compelling argument to change government. That then led to hubris in NSW Labor, the dumping of Iemma for Rees and then Rees for Kenneally and the final straw for the voters... and the ALP losing Government for a decade. 

[Smid]

Let's suppose that Labor holds on -barely- to power this year.  In the long-term, would it be better for the Liberals to lose this year, with the certainty that four years hence they would be winning in a landslide due to voter fatigue with one-party rule?  

That's kind of the thesis from the 2007 NSW election. In fairness, the ALP had no right to win that election, it just so happened that Debnam was an awful leader and they couldn't provide a compelling argument to change government. That then led to hubris in NSW Labor, the dumping of Iemma for Rees and then Rees for Kenneally and the final straw for the voters... and the ALP losing Government for a decade. 

Much of the first half of that applies to the 2010 SA election, too. Labor got slapped around pretty bad in the popular vote, but still clung to enough seats to hold on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though do always note that Australian voters are quite prepared to throw a state party out in style and then vote them in for government a couple of elections later. Very long stretches in opposition are more of a Queensland thing.

[BigSkyBob]

Let's suppose that Labor holds on -barely- to power this year.  In the long-term, would it be better for the Liberals to lose this year, with the certainty that four years hence they would be winning in a landslide due to voter fatigue with one-party rule?  

Supping your analysis is correct, wouldn't it behoove the Labor party to assure that it loses a close election least they face elimination four years hence? I find it odd that advice that presumably applies equally to both parties is only being directed towards one party.

In any case, I strongly suspect that both Labor and Liberal party partisans would reject this advice out of hand. Perhaps, they would even label it as concern trolling.

[Hifly]

Breaking News:

Don Farrell has reportedly ousted social liberal Michael O'Brien, the sitting Cabinet Minister for Finance, Minister for Police, Minister for Emergency Services, Minister for Correctional Services and Minister for Road Safety, who holds the ultra-safe seat of Napier.

It's great to see that Don Farrell will be back in active politics so soon after he will have to vacate his Senate seat because of his unfortunate loss last September. Hopefully he will make his way back into Federal politics within the next couple of election cycles.

http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/don-farrell-handed-safe-labor-seat-in-sa-state-election-the-australian-reports/story-fnii5yv4-1226814451376

Edit: Farrell is apparently planning to become Jay Weatherill's successor as State Labor leader!

[Hifly]

And now Weatherill is throwing a hissy fit and apparently threatening to resign if Farrell is officially preselected. Go ahead. It'll make Farrell's life easier

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/jay-weatherill-ill-resign-as-premier-if-don-farrell-is-preselected-for-state-seat-of-napier/story-fni6uo1m-1226814451376

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is about factional wars, not policy of any description. The SA ALP is probably verging on the most actively divided, much like the SA Libs.

Farrell still has a bee in his bonnet about being (through a dodgy party vote) placed first on the Senate ballot and shifted back to his rightful spot in second place - Wetherill and Wong dated in the past and retain a close relationship. This is pretty much spite on Farrell's part - never piss off a factional warlord who loses it seems.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Aaaand Farrell drops out.

[morgieb]

Taste it, SDA.

[TTS1996]

Taste it, SDA.

Not just going to be the SDA or Labor Unity that 'tastes it', TBF.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Antony Green's SA guide is now live.

[Frodo]

Poll results basically more or less unchanged since the last time this race was polled:

Advertiser-Galaxy Poll: Six Labor ministers face losing seats as city voters swing behind Liberals one month from March 15 SA election

STATE POLITICAL EDITOR DANIEL WILLS THE ADVERTISER
FEBRUARY 14, 2014 11:40AM

OPPOSITION Leader Steven Marshall has claimed the title of preferred premier for the first time as exclusive polling shows him poised for victory at next month’s state election.

The Advertiser-Galaxy poll of 849 people, taken on Wednesday night, shows the Liberal Opposition leading the Labor State Government 55-45 on a two-party preferred statewide basis. First-term MP Mr Marshall, right, holds a three-point lead over Premier Jay Weatherill as preferred premier.

The Opposition also holds a commanding 52-48 lead in metropolitan Adelaide — the home of a swag of key marginal seats that will decide the winner of the March 15 election.

The rise in Liberal support has come amid damaging leaks, including emergence of a $376 million Budget black hole, and public factional warfare as Premier Jay Weatherill blocked Senator Don Farrell’s plan to parachute into the safe northern suburbs seat of Napier .

That result is a 5.3 per cent swing to Mr Marshall’s party in the city since the 2010 election.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here are my predictions, which I will revise (particuarly Mt. Gambier/Frome) a day or two out from the election:

Adelaide (LIB 4.2%)
Liberal retain, with a small swing, as Adelaide swung hard to the Liberals last election.

Ashford (ALP 0.6%)
Likely Liberal gain, particularly with the new boundaries.

Bragg (LIB 20.1%)
Liberal retain.

Bright (ALP 0.5%)
Liberal gain, while Chloe Fox managed to hold on narrowly last time, I can't see her holding on in 2014.

Chaffey (LIB 28.4%)
Liberal retain.

Cheltenham (ALP 16.0%)
Labor retain.

Colton (ALP 3.6%)
Liberal gain, given the bellwether history here.

Croydon (ALP 15.5%)
Labor retain.

Davenport (LIB 10.9%)
Liberal retain.

Dunstan (LIB 4.8%)
Easy Liberal retain, considering that this is the Liberal leader's seat.

Elder (ALP 2.0%)
Likely Liberal gain, particularly with Pat Conlon's retirement.

Enfield (ALP 9.0%)
Labor retain.

Finniss (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.

Fisher (IND 17.4% vs LIB)
Bob Such will hold this seat until the day he retires.

Flinders (LIB 26.2%)
Liberal retain.

Florey (ALP 3.6%)
Possible Liberal gain, although more likely than Wright.

Frome (IND 6.7% vs LIB)
Hard to call, Geoff Brock has been elected twice and his well established, particularly in the Port Pirie section of the electorate, although a general change of government mood could see him go.

Giles (ALP 11.9%)
Labor retain.

Goyder (LIB 15.7%)
Liberal retain.

Hammond (LIB 17.7%)
Liberal retain.

Hartley (ALP 0.1%)
Liberal gain.

Heysen (LIB 16.5%)
Liberal retain.

Kaurna (ALP 8.8%)
Labor retain.

Kavel (LIB 15.8%)
Liberal retain.

Lee (ALP 7.6%)
Likely Labor retain, although Gary Johanson, Mayor of Port Adelaide, is running as an independent, and having polled strongly in the 2012 Port Adelaide by-election, could make things more interesting than usual.

Light (ALP 2.8%)
Likely Liberal gain, with the potential for an above average Liberal swing.

Little Para (ALP 11.3%)
Labor retain.

MacKillop (LIB 24.7%)
Liberal retain.
   
Mawson (ALP 4.5%)
Liberal gain, considering the seat's bellwether history and the swing to Labor in 2010.

Mitchell (ALP 2.4%)
Kris Hanna recontesting means his preferences will be crucial, although the general swing to the Liberals should get them over the line here.

Morialta (LIB 2.8%)
Liberal retain.

Morphett (LIB 10.6%)
Liberal retain.

Mount Gambier (IND 0.5% vs LIB)
Very narrow margin, although independents have a history of doing better at their second election. Will be very dependent on local issues and Pegler's popularity as an incumbent MP.

Napier (ALP 16.1%)
Labor retain.

Newland (ALP 2.6%)
Likely Liberal gain.

Playford (ALP 14.7%)
Labor retain.

Port Adelaide (ALP 12.7%)
Labor retain.

Ramsay (ALP 17.8%)
Labor retain.

Reynell (ALP 10.5 %)
Labor retain.

Schubert (LIB 17.8%)
Liberal retain.

Stuart (LIB 7.6%)
Liberal retain.

Taylor (ALP 12.6%)
Labor retain.

Torrens (ALP 8.2%)
Likely Labor retain, unless Labor lose in a landslide.

Unley (LIB 12.0%)
Liberal retain.

Waite (LIB 12.1%)
Liberal retain.

West Torrens (ALP 10.8%)
Labor retain, even on the old boundaries this would have been a likely Labor hold.

Wright (ALP 4.9%)
At the upper end of marginal Labor seats, would currently go Liberal based on current polling. One to watch.

On these predictions:
Liberal: 29 (+11)
Labor: 15 (-11)
Independents: 3 (n/c)

EDIT: Corrected seat numbers and Florey's entry.

[Platypus]

I'm thinking it'll be significantly closer. Both parties to be in the 20-25 range, and while I have the Libs winning with 24 seats, I can definitely see Labor holding on. I'm giving the Libs Mt. Gambier, though, and not confident of it, so it could be a minority givernment/held up by the Independents.

[Vega]

I'm pretty sure that Lab will have a bare win.

[Hifly]

I'm pretty sure that Lab will have a bare win.

God willing but polling shows this to be unlikely.

[Vega]

I'm pretty sure that Lab will have a bare win.

God willing but polling shows this to be unlikely.

Indeed; but polls have been wrong.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think it will be close - although not as close as Hugh thinks.

The Libs will get a very small majority, something like a 52-48 TPP result in the end.

[Platypus]

I think the undecideds will break very, very strongly to Labor. If they don't already hate him, they're not going to be in an anti-Weatherill mood come election day, surely?