South Australian Parliamentary Elections Thread (March 15, 2014)

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SA Opposition Leader Steven Marshall and Liberal Party take 54-46 lead over Labor in exclusive poll

STATE POLITICAL EDITOR DANIEL WILLS
THE ADVERTISER
NOVEMBER 14, 2013 4:00PM

EXCLUSIVE new polling shows the Liberal Party positioned for victory at the March state election and holding a commanding 54-46 statewide lead over the Labor Government.

The poll of 860 people was taken exclusively for The Advertiser on Wednesday night by Galaxy Research.

It shows both primary and two-party support for the Liberals has risen since the 2010 election, but Labor has clawed back ground since a horror 59-41 result in the March Advertiser poll.

On a two-party basis, backing for the Liberals has increased to 54 from 51.6 per cent at the 2010 election.

Applied uniformly, the 2.4 per cent swing would hand the Liberals at least five Labor-held seats.

Labor's governing majority in State Parliament would be lost and the Liberals placed one seat short of forming power in their own right. There are also three independents in State Parliament's Lower House and all face fierce challenges from Liberal candidates.

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Let's suppose that Labor holds on -barely- to power this year.  In the long-term, would it be better for the Liberals to lose this year, with the certainty that four years hence they would be winning in a landslide due to voter fatigue with one-party rule?  

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Poll results basically more or less unchanged since the last time this race was polled:

Advertiser-Galaxy Poll: Six Labor ministers face losing seats as city voters swing behind Liberals one month from March 15 SA election

STATE POLITICAL EDITOR DANIEL WILLS THE ADVERTISER
FEBRUARY 14, 2014 11:40AM

OPPOSITION Leader Steven Marshall has claimed the title of preferred premier for the first time as exclusive polling shows him poised for victory at next month’s state election.

The Advertiser-Galaxy poll of 849 people, taken on Wednesday night, shows the Liberal Opposition leading the Labor State Government 55-45 on a two-party preferred statewide basis. First-term MP Mr Marshall, right, holds a three-point lead over Premier Jay Weatherill as preferred premier.

The Opposition also holds a commanding 52-48 lead in metropolitan Adelaide — the home of a swag of key marginal seats that will decide the winner of the March 15 election.

The rise in Liberal support has come amid damaging leaks, including emergence of a $376 million Budget black hole, and public factional warfare as Premier Jay Weatherill blocked Senator Don Farrell’s plan to parachute into the safe northern suburbs seat of Napier .

That result is a 5.3 per cent swing to Mr Marshall’s party in the city since the 2010 election.

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Voters clear on Weatherill: your time is up

SARAH MARTIN
THE AUSTRALIAN
MARCH 01, 2014 12:00AM

VOTERS are preparing to elect a Liberal government in South Australia for the first time in 12 years, as Premier Jay Weatherill’s personal standing falters.

Just two weeks from the March 15 election, the Liberal Party has increased its lead over Labor to 54-46 on a two-party-preferred basis, according to the latest Newspoll taken exclusively for The Weekend Australian.

Labor’s primary vote remains stubbornly low, at 34 per cent, in the survey taken last week.

Meanwhile, primary support has galvanised behind the Liberals at 44 per cent - up four points since the previous Newspoll in December.

Worryingly for Labor, voter commitment is also high, with the vast majority of those surveyed having locked in their vote midway through the campaign.

The poll shows that 55 per cent of voters say they will not change their vote between now and election day, and a further 32 per cent say there is only a “slight” chance of a shift.

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2 final polls out with widely differing results:
Reachtel 55-45
Newspoll 52.3-47.7

If it's ReachTel, that's decent Lib majority - Newspoll, the Government could retain the majority on those numbers.

My gut-feel, final prediction will be tomorrow, will be closer to Newspoll ... 52-48 LNP. The biggest swings kept within safe seats and the Libs will under-perform in the marginals.

Ugh - I'm thinking... Libs 23 ALP 22 IND 2 ... Libs form Government with Indy support.

I'll need to think more tomorrow ...

If that is actually the result, then that is beyond pathetic for the SA Liberal Party.  They are running in an ideal environment that in any other Australian state would give them a 60-40 edge over Labor, and if the best they can manage is a bare majority (if that), then I don't know what to say. 

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Labor: 21
Liberals: 19
Other: 2

With 69% of the vote counted.  

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Is a Labor minority government the most likely outcome of this election? 

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Just two seats left to be decided now:

Labor: 23
Liberals: 20
Other: 2

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With 73% of the vote counted:

Labor: 23
Liberals: 22
other: 2

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Now we have word on one of the independents:

Key independent Geoff Brock indicates leaning toward Labor to form next government

So we're definitely looking forward to a Labor minority government.  Haven't yet heard news regarding the other independent, though....    

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Now that we know the future make-up of the lower house (or the House of Assembly), what were the election results in the upper house, namely the Legislative Council?