South Australian Parliamentary Elections Thread (March 15, 2014)

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll is out!

Primary Vote

Liberal- 40% (-4)
Labor- 33% (+1)
Greens- 10%
Others- 17% (+3)

2PP

Liberal- 53% (-3)
Labor- 47% (+3)

Jay Weatherill Ratings

Approve- 43% (-4)
Disapprove- 37% (+2)

Steven Marshall Ratings

Approve- 43% (+2)
Disapprove- 21% (+1)

Preferred Premier

Jay Weatherill- 40% (-1)
Steven Marshall- 29% (-1)


It looks like the defeat of the Rudd-Gillard government has made the government's standing more respectable in the polls, but they're still heading for a loss.

[Talleyrand]

Are there any prominent Ministers or high-profile Labor members who are perceived to be at major risk of losing their electorates this election? And who would be poised to lead the party into opposition in the event of a loss?

[Talleyrand]

Are there any prominent Ministers or high-profile Labor members who are perceived to be at major risk of losing their electorates this election? And who would be poised to lead the party into opposition in the event of a loss?

Cabinet minister Tom Kenyon holds a very marginal seat and is at great risk of losing it. You probably wouldn't like the guy:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/mp-slammed-for-same-sex-swipe-at-wong/story-fn59niix-1226165315556

In addition to Kenyon losing Newland (ALP 2.7%):

Chloe Fox in Bright - post-redistribution, Bright is notionally Liberal, with a notional Liberal margin of 0.1%.

Grace Portolesi in Hartley (ALP 0.5%) - Labor's 2nd most marginal seat, Portolesi was involved in a child abuse scandal, although was cleared of this by the Royal Commissioner. I don't know the full story though, as I'm not that familiar with SA politics.

Leon Bignell in Mawson (ALP 4.9%) - Mawson has gone with the government at every election since 1970, with the exception of 2002. In the 2002 it stayed with the Liberals, who won the 2PP vote statewide, but lost the election when Peter Lewis (IND-Hammond) backed a Rann Labor government.

Tony Piccolo in Light (ALP 4.2%) - The area in Light is changing, although could easy go blue again in a Liberal statewide victory. Light (and Mawson for that matter) actually swung to Labor in 2010, meaning they could swing back to the Liberals big time in 2014.

Jennifer Rankine in Wright (ALP 4.7%) - Considerably less likely than the other ministers I have mentioned, as Wright has more of a Labor lean than Light, Mawson, Newland, Hartley or Bright, but still possible. Also, very large swing last time here -  Wright had a margin of 15.3% going into 2010, more than double the margin in Bright, the safest of the other seats I've mentioned in this comment, which had a margin of 6.6% going into 2010.

Regarding Kenyon's comment about Wong, even if he didn't make it and/or didn't feel that way, I think he still would be a prime contender for losing his seat, given the electoral environment and Newland's voting history.

UPDATE 17/1/14: No idea as to who would lead Labor in opposition in the event of a loss.

Would I be correct in saying the first three are probable Liberal gains at this point, and that Labor should be somewhat favored to retain the others you mentioned? The polls are currently only showing a small movement to the Liberals from the 2010 result, so it would seem like that could be a distinct possibility. It seems like the current result would be a narrow Liberal majority with a strong Labor opposition.