South Australian Parliamentary Elections Thread (March 15, 2014)

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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.

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I've made a PVI index graph, displaying South Australian electoral districts' trends over the past two decades.

A few things to note:

• The major trends in Light and Mawson from 2006-2010.
• Likewise, how Flinders and MacKillop showed a major trend to Labor in 2010.
• Some data for a couple of seats, Chaffey and Mount Gambier off the top of my head, is not on the chart as I couldn't find ALP vs LIB figures for a few elections. This was because Chaffey was a National held seat, and Mount Gambier being an Independent-held seat.
• Just because there's a massive swing to one side or the other, like 1997, doesn't mean a lot of seats will trend in the same, in 1997, a significant number of seats trended Liberal, despite Labor gaining a lot of seats.
• A positive score indicates a Labor lean, and a negative score a Liberal lean.

A larger version is available in the Gallery, and the raw data is available from me by email on request.

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With Holden wrapping up car production, how will this affect the election?

http://www.skynews.com.au/feature/sf4/article.aspx?id=933457

I think it will be a factor, although won't be too much of an impact - this was inevitable for years anyway.

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It won't hurt Labor's chances, that's for sure.

While I think Labor will lose, I don't think they will go down like they did in '93. I'll give Labor a 25-30% chance of winning. Even with the Holden factor, the election environment isn't too good for them:

• Third terms are hard to win in South Australian politics - the 1975, 1989 and 2010 elections all resulted in third terms for incumbent Labor governments, in all three cases, the government was returned with a minority of the 2PP vote, and in the first two cases, they were minority governments.
• The last fourth consecutive election victory in SA politics was Labor's win in 1977. As far as I know, Premier Weatherill does not have the appeal Don Dunstan had back in the 1970s, and Labor lost the first election (1979) after Dunstan's retirement.
• The Liberals have a young, fresh leader, literally (he's a freshman MP).

Labor, however, are fairly strong in SA, particularly at the state level, while SA has gone very blue at times, out of the 13 elections since the end of the Playmander in 1970, Labor have won 10 of these, although only 7 of these were majority of governments. The Liberals have won 2 majority and 1 minority government since 1970.

I also wonder how your stereotypical driver of a "fully sick (insert model) SS" would vote now... a lot of them seem to be the sort that voted for One Nation in the late 90s, possibly Palmer this year, but are otherwise politically apathetic.

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The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.

The thing is, Labor still have a seats lead following the redistribution, despite losing the statewide 2PP and the "fairness" clause in the Electoral Boundaries Act.

I've almost finished the new base map. I should have it uploaded before Christmas.

Looking forward to the maps, and while it's crummy about the post-redistribution result, at least Bright is notionally Liberal now, and Light has had some of its strong Labor territory removed, while Ashford, Elder and Hartley are very much low hanging fruit now. Mawson, on the other hand, has become stronger for Labor, although should still go back to the Liberals.

So while the post-redistribution map might not be much of an improvement, at least there's some silver lining on the cloud.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.

The thing is, Labor still have a seats lead following the redistribution, despite losing the statewide 2PP and the "fairness" clause in the Electoral Boundaries Act.

I've almost finished the new base map. I should have it uploaded before Christmas.

Looking forward to the maps, and while it's crummy about the post-redistribution result, at least Bright is notionally Liberal now, and Light has had some of its strong Labor territory removed, while Ashford, Elder and Hartley are very much low hanging fruit now. Mawson, on the other hand, has become stronger for Labor, although should still go back to the Liberals.

So while the post-redistribution map might not be much of an improvement, at least there's some silver lining on the cloud.

Part of it is also that all three independent-held seats are notional Liberal seats vs Labor.

Anyway, no need to "look forward" to the maps, I'll post them in a moment!

Maps are all looking good, as for those 3 independent seats, here's some early insight:

Fisher (Bob Such) - A member since 1989, Such will be hard to dislodge, the Liberals will only pick this one up if he retires.
Frome (Geoff Brock) - He's won 2 elections, the second by a strong margin. Hard to say at this stage.
Mount Gambier (Don Pegler) - Just the one victory, very narrow as well, good chance of a  Liberal pick-up, although Mount Gambier was expected to return to form in 2010. Very dependent on Pegler's performance as a member.

I'll post my predictions of every seat sometime in the New Year.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The electoral boundaries are just horrible - 51.6% of the vote and still not winning the most seats... a smaller popular vote victory and failing to win isn't terrible, 50.5% or so, but winning by that sort of a margin...

Labor managed to hold on by means of an effective marginal seat campaign, their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson) swung to them. On a brighter note, the Liberals did pick up Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood, the latter of which is the seat of Steven Marshall, likely the next Premier of SA.

The best thing about the last state election in SA, in my opinion, was the post-election resignation of Attorney-General Michael Atkinson.

The thing is, Labor still have a seats lead following the redistribution, despite losing the statewide 2PP and the "fairness" clause in the Electoral Boundaries Act.

I've almost finished the new base map. I should have it uploaded before Christmas.

Looking forward to the maps, and while it's crummy about the post-redistribution result, at least Bright is notionally Liberal now, and Light has had some of its strong Labor territory removed, while Ashford, Elder and Hartley are very much low hanging fruit now. Mawson, on the other hand, has become stronger for Labor, although should still go back to the Liberals.

So while the post-redistribution map might not be much of an improvement, at least there's some silver lining on the cloud.

Part of it is also that all three independent-held seats are notional Liberal seats vs Labor.

Anyway, no need to "look forward" to the maps, I'll post them in a moment!

Maps are all looking good, as for those 3 independent seats, here's some early insight:

Fisher (Bob Such) - A member since 1989, Such will be hard to dislodge, the Liberals will only pick this one up if he retires.
Frome (Geoff Brock) - He's won 2 elections, the second by a strong margin. Hard to say at this stage.
Mount Gambier (Don Pegler) - Just the one victory, very narrow as well, good chance of a  Liberal pick-up, although Mount Gambier was expected to return to form in 2010. Very dependent on Pegler's performance as a member.

I'll post my predictions of every seat sometime in the New Year.

I realised I should have clarified earlier. They're notional Liberal vs Labor 2PP, but still Independent ahead on 2CP. The map I posted was 2PP, obviously.

I knew the 2PP map was Liberal vs Labor in all seats, I was just posting my thoughts on how the independent members may fare next year. Thanks for the clarification by the way.

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No guide from Antony Green yet, but the Tally Room has started posting their guide to the SA election:

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/sa2014

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Are there any prominent Ministers or high-profile Labor members who are perceived to be at major risk of losing their electorates this election? And who would be poised to lead the party into opposition in the event of a loss?

Cabinet minister Tom Kenyon holds a very marginal seat and is at great risk of losing it. You probably wouldn't like the guy:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/mp-slammed-for-same-sex-swipe-at-wong/story-fn59niix-1226165315556

In addition to Kenyon losing Newland (ALP 2.7%):

Chloe Fox in Bright - post-redistribution, Bright is notionally Liberal, with a notional Liberal margin of 0.1%.

Grace Portolesi in Hartley (ALP 0.5%) - Labor's 2nd most marginal seat, Portolesi was involved in a child abuse scandal, although was cleared of this by the Royal Commissioner. I don't know the full story though, as I'm not that familiar with SA politics.

Leon Bignell in Mawson (ALP 4.9%) - Mawson has gone with the government at every election since 1970, with the exception of 2002. In the 2002 it stayed with the Liberals, who won the 2PP vote statewide, but lost the election when Peter Lewis (IND-Hammond) backed a Rann Labor government.

Tony Piccolo in Light (ALP 4.2%) - The area in Light is changing, although could easy go blue again in a Liberal statewide victory. Light (and Mawson for that matter) actually swung to Labor in 2010, meaning they could swing back to the Liberals big time in 2014.

Jennifer Rankine in Wright (ALP 4.7%) - Considerably less likely than the other ministers I have mentioned, as Wright has more of a Labor lean than Light, Mawson, Newland, Hartley or Bright, but still possible. Also, very large swing last time here -  Wright had a margin of 15.3% going into 2010, more than double the margin in Bright, the safest of the other seats I've mentioned in this comment, which had a margin of 6.6% going into 2010.

Regarding Kenyon's comment about Wong, even if he didn't make it and/or didn't feel that way, I think he still would be a prime contender for losing his seat, given the electoral environment and Newland's voting history.

UPDATE 17/1/14: No idea as to who would lead Labor in opposition in the event of a loss.

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I think this one is going down to the wire. The polling trajectory is looking better for the Government, plus Wetherill still leads as preferred premier, something which IS a factor when the race is close.

Any new polls since the Newspoll Talleyrand posted?

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I think expecting a uniform swing in this election is a bit of a folly. There will be some very weird swings in each direction exacerbated by local issues. And despite people saying 'State elections are about state issues... if the Libs fail to gain what was a fait accompli 6 months ago, it will reflect VERY badly on Abbott.

There were all different types of swings last SA election as well, I will post my predictions sometime next month.

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Antony Green's SA guide is now live.

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Here are my predictions, which I will revise (particuarly Mt. Gambier/Frome) a day or two out from the election:

Adelaide (LIB 4.2%)
Liberal retain, with a small swing, as Adelaide swung hard to the Liberals last election.

Ashford (ALP 0.6%)
Likely Liberal gain, particularly with the new boundaries.

Bragg (LIB 20.1%)
Liberal retain.

Bright (ALP 0.5%)
Liberal gain, while Chloe Fox managed to hold on narrowly last time, I can't see her holding on in 2014.

Chaffey (LIB 28.4%)
Liberal retain.

Cheltenham (ALP 16.0%)
Labor retain.

Colton (ALP 3.6%)
Liberal gain, given the bellwether history here.

Croydon (ALP 15.5%)
Labor retain.

Davenport (LIB 10.9%)
Liberal retain.

Dunstan (LIB 4.8%)
Easy Liberal retain, considering that this is the Liberal leader's seat.

Elder (ALP 2.0%)
Likely Liberal gain, particularly with Pat Conlon's retirement.

Enfield (ALP 9.0%)
Labor retain.

Finniss (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.

Fisher (IND 17.4% vs LIB)
Bob Such will hold this seat until the day he retires.

Flinders (LIB 26.2%)
Liberal retain.

Florey (ALP 3.6%)
Possible Liberal gain, although more likely than Wright.

Frome (IND 6.7% vs LIB)
Hard to call, Geoff Brock has been elected twice and his well established, particularly in the Port Pirie section of the electorate, although a general change of government mood could see him go.

Giles (ALP 11.9%)
Labor retain.

Goyder (LIB 15.7%)
Liberal retain.

Hammond (LIB 17.7%)
Liberal retain.

Hartley (ALP 0.1%)
Liberal gain.

Heysen (LIB 16.5%)
Liberal retain.

Kaurna (ALP 8.8%)
Labor retain.

Kavel (LIB 15.8%)
Liberal retain.

Lee (ALP 7.6%)
Likely Labor retain, although Gary Johanson, Mayor of Port Adelaide, is running as an independent, and having polled strongly in the 2012 Port Adelaide by-election, could make things more interesting than usual.

Light (ALP 2.8%)
Likely Liberal gain, with the potential for an above average Liberal swing.

Little Para (ALP 11.3%)
Labor retain.

MacKillop (LIB 24.7%)
Liberal retain.
   
Mawson (ALP 4.5%)
Liberal gain, considering the seat's bellwether history and the swing to Labor in 2010.

Mitchell (ALP 2.4%)
Kris Hanna recontesting means his preferences will be crucial, although the general swing to the Liberals should get them over the line here.

Morialta (LIB 2.8%)
Liberal retain.

Morphett (LIB 10.6%)
Liberal retain.

Mount Gambier (IND 0.5% vs LIB)
Very narrow margin, although independents have a history of doing better at their second election. Will be very dependent on local issues and Pegler's popularity as an incumbent MP.

Napier (ALP 16.1%)
Labor retain.

Newland (ALP 2.6%)
Likely Liberal gain.

Playford (ALP 14.7%)
Labor retain.

Port Adelaide (ALP 12.7%)
Labor retain.

Ramsay (ALP 17.8%)
Labor retain.

Reynell (ALP 10.5 %)
Labor retain.

Schubert (LIB 17.8%)
Liberal retain.

Stuart (LIB 7.6%)
Liberal retain.

Taylor (ALP 12.6%)
Labor retain.

Torrens (ALP 8.2%)
Likely Labor retain, unless Labor lose in a landslide.

Unley (LIB 12.0%)
Liberal retain.

Waite (LIB 12.1%)
Liberal retain.

West Torrens (ALP 10.8%)
Labor retain, even on the old boundaries this would have been a likely Labor hold.

Wright (ALP 4.9%)
At the upper end of marginal Labor seats, would currently go Liberal based on current polling. One to watch.

On these predictions:
Liberal: 29 (+11)
Labor: 15 (-11)
Independents: 3 (n/c)

EDIT: Corrected seat numbers and Florey's entry.

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The first electorate poll is out!

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Colton is held by Labor by a margin of 3.6% and is their eighth most marginal seat. The results of the poll highlight that a similar situation to 2010 could take place; There may be much lower than average swings in Labor's most marginal seats with popular incumbents but we could be looking at very large swings in Labor's safer seats, particularly those with retiring members such as Lee, Torrens and Reynell. Polls have shown that the greatest swings will take place in Metropolitan Adelaide (5.3% according to a poll of the city a couple of weeks ago).

This has become an election to watch, considering the winner of Colton, and its predecessor Henley Beach, has always won the election, going all the way back to 1970.

I doubt Reynell, Kaurna or Torrens will fall though. Lee, while still unlikely, has the Johanson factor, how well he'll do outside of a by-election, I don't know.

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Another electorate poll is out from the seat of Adelaide, showing a 54-46 2PP for the Liberals (no swing from 2010).
Rachel Sanderson took this seat with over a 14% swing 4 years ago.

That seems pretty reasonable, considering the massive swing last time.

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Labor have been accused of a racist smear campaign against the Liberal candidate for Elder:
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia-state-election-2014/liberal-candidate-for-elder-carolyn-habib-labels-state-election-campaign-material-filthy-and-racist/story-fnl3k6uz-1226852398947

Not as nasty as the Lindsay pamphlet scandal by some moronic Liberal members from 2007, still not nice though.

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The Lindsay pamphlet was outright race-baiting ... this thing? My God, I'm actually agreeing with Cory Bernardi (there is not water hot enough or cleaning product corrosive enough to clean my mind of that thought) ... but this is a storm in a tea-cup. Mind you, must be a pleasure for the Libs to have someone else to be accused of racial insensitivity.


Onto the election itself... I have a weird feeling this could end up being a lot like 2010... the Libs under-perform in those crucial marginals, they have a chance to get big swings to them in safer seats (on both sides) and maybe pick up Mt Gambier from the Indy. I haven't paid a lot of attention, but I don't see the ALP losing more than 6.

I definitely agree with you, this is a storm in a tea cup compared to the Lindsay pamphlets. Also, just out of interest, which seats do you think the ALP will lose?

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New polls out today showing Labor narrowly holding on in Newland and Mitchell. I will be so delighted if Tom Kenyon holds his seat!

Polnut how come you think Reynell will fall?

I'm wondering the same thing, maybe the retiring member effect?

Also, do you have a link to these Mitchell/Newland polls?

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Here are my updated predictions:

Adelaide (LIB 4.2%)
Liberal retain, with a small swing, as Adelaide swung hard to the Liberals last election.

Ashford (ALP 0.6%)
Likely Liberal gain, particularly with the new boundaries.

Bragg (LIB 20.1%)
Liberal retain.

Bright (ALP 0.5%)
Liberal gain, while Chloe Fox managed to hold on narrowly last time, I can't see her holding on in 2014.

Chaffey (LIB 28.4%)
Liberal retain.

Cheltenham (ALP 16.0%)
Labor retain.

Colton (ALP 3.6%)
Likely Liberal gain, given the bellwether history here.

Croydon (ALP 15.5%)
Labor retain.

Davenport (LIB 10.9%)
Liberal retain.

Dunstan (LIB 4.8%)
Easy Liberal retain, considering that this is the Liberal leader's seat.

Elder (ALP 2.0%)
Likely Liberal gain, particularly with Pat Conlon's retirement.

Enfield (ALP 9.0%)
Labor retain.

Finniss (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.

Fisher (IND 17.4% vs LIB)
Bob Such will hold this seat until the day he retires.

Flinders (LIB 26.2%)
Liberal retain.

Florey (ALP 3.6%)
Possible Liberal gain, although more likely than Wright.

Frome (IND 6.7% vs LIB)
Hard to call, Geoff Brock has been elected twice and his well established, particularly in the Port Pirie section of the electorate, although a general change of government mood could see him go. I'd say Brock holds this.

Giles (ALP 11.9%)
Labor retain.

Goyder (LIB 15.7%)
Liberal retain.

Hammond (LIB 17.7%)
Liberal retain.

Hartley (ALP 0.1%)
Liberal gain.

Heysen (LIB 16.5%)
Liberal retain.

Kaurna (ALP 8.8%)
Labor retain.

Kavel (LIB 15.8%)
Liberal retain.

Lee (ALP 7.6%)
Likely Labor retain, although Gary Johanson, Mayor of Port Adelaide, is running as an independent, and having polled strongly in the 2012 Port Adelaide by-election, could make things more interesting than usual.

Light (ALP 2.8%)
Likely Liberal gain, with the potential for an above average Liberal swing.

Little Para (ALP 11.3%)
Labor retain.

MacKillop (LIB 24.7%)
Liberal retain.
   
Mawson (ALP 4.5%)
Likely Liberal gain, considering the seat's bellwether history and the swing to Labor in 2010.

Mitchell (ALP 2.4%)
Kris Hanna recontesting means his preferences will be crucial, although the general swing to the Liberals should get them over the line here.

Morialta (LIB 2.8%)
Liberal retain.

Morphett (LIB 10.6%)
Liberal retain.

Mount Gambier (IND 0.5% vs LIB)
Very narrow margin, although independents have a history of doing better at their second election. Will be very dependent on local issues and Pegler's popularity as an incumbent MP. Honestly can't say.

Napier (ALP 16.1%)
Labor retain.

Newland (ALP 2.6%)
Likely Liberal gain.

Playford (ALP 14.7%)
Labor retain.

Port Adelaide (ALP 12.7%)
Labor retain.

Ramsay (ALP 17.8%)
Labor retain.

Reynell (ALP 10.5 %)
Labor retain.

Schubert (LIB 17.8%)
Liberal retain.

Stuart (LIB 7.6%)
Liberal retain.

Taylor (ALP 12.6%)
Labor retain.

Torrens (ALP 8.2%)
Likely Labor retain, unless Labor lose in a landslide.

Unley (LIB 12.0%)
Liberal retain.

Waite (LIB 12.1%)
Liberal retain.

West Torrens (ALP 10.8%)
Labor retain, even on the old boundaries this would have been a likely Labor hold.

Wright (ALP 4.9%)
At the upper end of marginal Labor seats, will probably narrowly stay with Labor.

On these predictions:
Liberal: 28 (+10)
Labor: 16 (-10)
Independents: 3 (n/c, assuming Pegler holds Mt. Gambier)

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T-minus 90 minutes until the polls close.

Will be watching this race closer than Tasmania.

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Figures are beginning to come in, one booth has been counted in Hartley, with a 5.5% swing to Labor.

Also, one booth counted in Enfield, with a 17.2% swing to the Liberals!!!!

Not much movement in Florey from early returns there, and Johanson is polling 12.3% in Lee from early returns there.

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Looks like I was WAY off - got Florey, Newland, Colton, Elder, Mitchell, Mawson and Light wrong!

Obviously a tad optimistic on my side of things.

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While there are a lot of pre-polls and postals to come, I'd only expect the results to be impacted in Mitchell... and that could push the ALP to a majority, probably with an Indy (probably Brock) as Speaker.

It does seem the difference between 23 and 24 seats.

I thought a hung parliament was likely ... but this I was NOT expecting.

It seems likely the Independents will side with the ALP... I never, ever thought this would be the outcome.

Putting Marshall up there was a sign of hubris on the part of the Libs. The guy was an empty suit and they assumed that SA would fall the same way as QLD and NSW did… relying on a small-target strategy and the unpopularity of the government to drag them over the line.

When push came to shove, as the election got closer… there was no wave, there was no sense of momentum, it became a race. The big problem was that the Libs were cornered and Marshall was exposed as the relative political weakling he was. Who’d have thunk the ALP would get swings TO them in ANY of their marginals?

It should be noted that Marshall got a 2.7% swing against him in his own seat, which drags him down to a 2.1% margin.

Neither was I, and it looks like I got Ashford wrong too. On a plus note, I may have got Mitchell right after all.

I can definitely say one thing though - the South Australian Liberal Party needs to sort out their factional warfare problems big time. Also, installing a freshman MP as leader was always going to be high-risk, although Marshall polled quite well in polls as preferred Premier...

Federal government issues? Abbott may have had some effect on tonight's election in SA, along with the Holden closure (which was going to happen regardless of who was in power). Also, people could be skeptical of giving one party too much power.

If you look at last year's federal results, Labor held on fairly comfortably in the following three seats, with marginal state seats highlighted:
Makin (Wright/Florey/Newland)
Wakefield (Light)
Kingston (Mawson)

In my opinion, the old saying of "State elections are fought on state issues" holds true tonight, for South Australia and Tasmania alike.

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Embarassing for Liberals. I'm pretty sure everyone expected them to win.

The voters, even more than the media, expected it.

Have to wonder, had she stayed, if Redmond would've done better.

I wonder the same thing myself regarding Redmond.

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Embarassing for Liberals. I'm pretty sure everyone expected them to win.

The voters, even more than the media, expected it.

Have to wonder, had she stayed, if Redmond would've done better.

I wonder the same thing myself regarding Redmond.

While I certainly get the logic of having a fresh-face... the basic fact was that Marshall just seemed to be out-matched by Wetherill and one has to wonder that if someone more experienced would have performed better.

If I remember correctly, Redmond has the Libs ahead when she was removed? But I could be wrong. I just vaguely remember that there was some kind of "wtf" moment when Redmond was removed... that it was more about internal dramas.

That's why I stated the Liberals need to sort out their factional warfare problem. As for polling when Redmond was leader, the Liberals were in the mid 50s for most of the tenure post-2010, although the last poll with Redmond as leader, in late 2012, saw only a 51-49 result.