South Australian Parliamentary Elections Thread (March 15, 2014)

[Hifly]

Labor can hold government with a result like that!

[Hifly]

Are there any prominent Ministers or high-profile Labor members who are perceived to be at major risk of losing their electorates this election? And who would be poised to lead the party into opposition in the event of a loss?

Cabinet minister Tom Kenyon holds a very marginal seat and is at great risk of losing it. You probably wouldn't like the guy:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/mp-slammed-for-same-sex-swipe-at-wong/story-fn59niix-1226165315556

[Hifly]

Breaking News:

Don Farrell has reportedly ousted social liberal Michael O'Brien, the sitting Cabinet Minister for Finance, Minister for Police, Minister for Emergency Services, Minister for Correctional Services and Minister for Road Safety, who holds the ultra-safe seat of Napier.

It's great to see that Don Farrell will be back in active politics so soon after he will have to vacate his Senate seat because of his unfortunate loss last September. Hopefully he will make his way back into Federal politics within the next couple of election cycles.

http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/don-farrell-handed-safe-labor-seat-in-sa-state-election-the-australian-reports/story-fnii5yv4-1226814451376

Edit: Farrell is apparently planning to become Jay Weatherill's successor as State Labor leader!

[Hifly]

And now Weatherill is throwing a hissy fit and apparently threatening to resign if Farrell is officially preselected. Go ahead. It'll make Farrell's life easier

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/jay-weatherill-ill-resign-as-premier-if-don-farrell-is-preselected-for-state-seat-of-napier/story-fni6uo1m-1226814451376

[Hifly]

I'm pretty sure that Lab will have a bare win.

God willing but polling shows this to be unlikely.

[Hifly]

The first electorate poll is out!

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Colton is held by Labor by a margin of 3.6% and is their eighth most marginal seat. The results of the poll highlight that a similar situation to 2010 could take place; There may be much lower than average swings in Labor's most marginal seats with popular incumbents but we could be looking at very large swings in Labor's safer seats, particularly those with retiring members such as Lee, Torrens and Reynell. Polls have shown that the greatest swings will take place in Metropolitan Adelaide (5.3% according to a poll of the city a couple of weeks ago).

[Hifly]

Another electorate poll is out from the seat of Adelaide, showing a 54-46 2PP for the Liberals (no swing from 2010).
Rachel Sanderson took this seat with over a 14% swing 4 years ago.

[Hifly]

The Lindsay pamphlet was outright race-baiting ... this thing? My God, I'm actually agreeing with Cory Bernardi (there is not water hot enough or cleaning product corrosive enough to clean my mind of that thought) ... but this is a storm in a tea-cup. Mind you, must be a pleasure for the Libs to have someone else to be accused of racial insensitivity.


Onto the election itself... I have a weird feeling this could end up being a lot like 2010... the Libs under-perform in those crucial marginals, they have a chance to get big swings to them in safer seats (on both sides) and maybe pick up Mt Gambier from the Indy. I haven't paid a lot of attention, but I don't see the ALP losing more than 6.

If you haven't paid a lot of attention, how have you come to that conclusion?

[Hifly]

The Lindsay pamphlet was outright race-baiting ... this thing? My God, I'm actually agreeing with Cory Bernardi (there is not water hot enough or cleaning product corrosive enough to clean my mind of that thought) ... but this is a storm in a tea-cup. Mind you, must be a pleasure for the Libs to have someone else to be accused of racial insensitivity.


Onto the election itself... I have a weird feeling this could end up being a lot like 2010... the Libs under-perform in those crucial marginals, they have a chance to get big swings to them in safer seats (on both sides) and maybe pick up Mt Gambier from the Indy. I haven't paid a lot of attention, but I don't see the ALP losing more than 6.

If you haven't paid a lot of attention, how have you come to that conclusion?

LOL... As in I haven't been obsessing over it ... I've been paying less attention than I normally would, but that's still enough to make a reasonable judgement.

I agree with your judgement (apart from the bit that the ALP won't lose more than 6 seats).

[Hifly]

New polls out today showing Labor narrowly holding on in Newland and Mitchell. I will be so delighted if Tom Kenyon holds his seat!

Polnut how come you think Reynell will fall?

[Hifly]

2 final polls out with widely differing results:
Reachtel 55-45
Newspoll 52.3-47.7

[Hifly]

2 final polls out with widely differing results:
Reachtel 55-45
Newspoll 52.3-47.7

If it's ReachTel, that's decent Lib majority - Newspoll, the Government could retain the majority on those numbers.

My gut-feel, final prediction will be tomorrow, will be closer to Newspoll ... 52-48 LNP. The biggest swings kept within safe seats and the Libs will under-perform in the marginals.

Ugh - I'm thinking... Libs 23 ALP 22 IND 2 ... Libs form Government with Indy support.

I'll need to think more tomorrow ...

If that is actually the result, then that is beyond pathetic for the SA Liberal Party.  They are running in an ideal environment that in any other Australian state would give them a 60-40 edge over Labor, and if the best they can manage is a bare majority (if that), then I don't know what to say.  

The national environment is certainly far from "ideal" for the Libs (and thus it is different from previous state elections where Libs were able to also take advantage of public hatred for the national ALP), but indeed, should they fail to win a majority today it will be an embarrassment for Marshall.

[Hifly]

We're in hung parliament territory.

[Hifly]

I think any chance of replacing Weatherill with Snelling or Koutsantonis is possibly out of the question if the independents get behind Labor.

[Hifly]

I think any chance of replacing Weatherill with Snelling or Koutsantonis is possibly out of the question if the independents get behind Labor.

At the moment, Wetherill is a hero to the party ... he's safe for now. And yes, if there's written agreements with the Independents, any moves for the life of the next next parliament will be much harder.

"Safe" is certainly the wrong word to use because the Christian Right easily has the numbers and power to remove him whenever suits them but certainly any deal with independents would ensure this probably won't happen.