2012: Obama/Biden vs Christie/Rubio

[JRP1994]

How would the 2012 election have ended had the following timeline of events occurred?

1) Chris Christie, not Rick Perry, enters the GOP race as the new frontrunner in late 2011
2) The anti-Romney vote unites behind Christie. The GOP primary becomes a 3-way race between Christie, Romney, and Paul
3) Christie beats Romney in New Hampshire, Florida, and the midwestern states - Romney exits the race in April (when Santorum did). Christie becomes the presumptive nominee
4) Christie selects Marco Rubio as his running mate

Stipulations:

1) Benghazi occurs - you choose Christie's response.
2) Christie decimates Obama in the first debate - you decide 2nd and 3rd debates
3) Hurricane Sandy occurs as in real life.

What would the electoral/popular vote totals be? 

[Enderman]

1) Benghazi occurs - Christie is immediately shocked but moves the press conference later until he gets more information (like the 13th instead of the 12th)

2) Christie decimates Obama in the first debate, Rubio makes a classic win over Biden who completely embarrasses himself, the second debate is a tie, but Christie takes the third debate.

3) Hurricane Sandy occurs as in real life and Christie temporarily puts his campaign on hold to help with the relief; blasts Obama because of his "inaction" towards Hurricane relief and compares Sandy with Katrina.
Result:

Delaware, New York, Connecticut and Illinois almost as close as Florida in 2000...

[Paul Kemp]

blows Obama because of his "inaction" towards Hurricane relief and compares Sandy with Katrina.

...?

Also, no.

[Enderman]

blows Obama because of his "inaction" towards Hurricane relief and compares Sandy with Katrina.

...?

Also, no.

Oops sorry lemmie change that. I thought I deleted that.

[Paul Kemp]

To slightly elaborate on "no", I don't think your number 1 reason makes any difference and I don't know what "inaction" you refer to in number 3. The immediate action was handled pretty well.

I don't think a comparison between Sandy and Katrina would work...as someone from a Sandy-affected area, it's actually kinda offensive and shows a complete lack of understanding of what actually happened with Katrina. It's pretty much the equivalent of comparing a two car accident to a 20 car pileup. There's no real comparison.

[Enderman]

To slightly elaborate on "no", I don't think your number 1 reason makes any difference and I don't know what "inaction" you refer to in number 3. The immediate action was handled pretty well.

I don't think a comparison between Sandy and Katrina would work...as someone from a Sandy-affected area, it's actually kinda offensive and shows a complete lack of understanding of what actually happened with Katrina. It's pretty much the equivalent of comparing a two car accident to a 20 car pileup. There's no real comparison.

Oh okay. It was supposed to be another difference in this scenario. Obama not really mentioning Sandy, thus an alienation and Christie landslide. The reason I made the blow's comment was just off the top of my head. No relation to crack at all... I was thinking of deleting it, but my mind ran in another direction so I pressed post and I forgot to edit. Sorry about that. And you're right, the comparison from Katrina to Sandy would be offensive.

[Paul Kemp]

It was supposed to be another difference in this scenario. Obama not really mentioning Sandy, thus an alienation and Christie landslide.

Right but:

Stipulations:

1) Benghazi occurs - you choose Christie's response.
2) Christie decimates Obama in the first debate - you decide 2nd and 3rd debates
3) Hurricane Sandy occurs as in real life.

[Enderman]

It was supposed to be another difference in this scenario. Obama not really mentioning Sandy, thus an alienation and Christie landslide.

Right but:

Stipulations:

1) Benghazi occurs - you choose Christie's response.
2) Christie decimates Obama in the first debate - you decide 2nd and 3rd debates
3) Hurricane Sandy occurs as in real life.

Oh................oh..........oh....

[badgate]

It's interesting, I finished Double Down this week, and I noticed it never talks about whether the Obamans were worried about Christie running. But considering the VP vet that Christie got, plus his pugnacity drawing strong contrast with Obama's Presidential airs, I think the President still pulls it out.

1)Benghazi occurs - Christie obviously doesn't go for the statement Romney did - Romney went for that because it reinforced his foreign policy critique of Obama ("apologist"). Christie probably ignores Cairo altogether and releases a statement of support for the Benghazi casualties' families, while insisting that everything must be done to find out how Obama could have prevented this, creating the premise that he could have prevented it.
2)Obama has his crisis of confidence, but comes back in the last two debates. Crowley fact checks Christie, as in IRL, and he goes off like he does in those awful YouTube videos. Obama looks so Presidential next to that.
3)Both campaigns suspend ads and surrogates during the storm and immediate aftermath. The candidates hug it out.

President Barack Obama / Vice President Joe Biden - 285
Governor Chris Christie / Senator Marco Rubio - 253
Obama wins by a respectable Bush '04 margin.

[Brewer]

1) Christie spends way more time asking for answers than Romney did, and some believe he overworks himself on that subject, and doesn't spend enough time in final weeks talking about the economy.

2) Christie decimates Obama, Rubio does the same to a delirious Biden. The second debate is a win for Obama, who regains his funny, common-guy attitude, and the third debate is an all-out tie.

3) Christie thanks Obama for what good he has done, but does not go as far as he did in RL. Many people like that Christie is able to put politics aside and point out that not everything the President does is absolutely horrible.

Governor Chris Christie/Senator Marco Rubio - 274 - 51.8%
President Barack Obama/Vice President Joe Biden - 264 - 48.2%

[morgieb]

Will be interesting to see how Sandy would affect the race. If Christie behaves the way he did IRL, we could see a lot of abstentions among the uber-conservative voters, but if he doesn't, his bi-partisan reputation would be in tatters.

[Obscure]

1) Christie spends way more time asking for answers than Romney did, and some believe he overworks himself on that subject, and doesn't spend enough time in final weeks talking about the economy.

2) Christie decimates Obama, Rubio does the same to a delirious Biden. The second debate is a win for Obama, who regains his funny, common-guy attitude, and the third debate is an all-out tie.

3) Christie thanks Obama for what good he has done, but does not go as far as he did in RL. Many people like that Christie is able to put politics aside and point out that not everything the President does is absolutely horrible.

Governor Chris Christie/Senator Marco Rubio - 274 - 51.8%
President Barack Obama/Vice President Joe Biden - 264 - 48.2%

I think your map makes the most sense out of all the ones on here. I just have one question though. If Cristie did such a good job in NJ with regards to hurricane Sandy, why doesn't he carry his own state? And by what margin does he lose by?

Make that two questions.

[Brewer]

1) Christie spends way more time asking for answers than Romney did, and some believe he overworks himself on that subject, and doesn't spend enough time in final weeks talking about the economy.

2) Christie decimates Obama, Rubio does the same to a delirious Biden. The second debate is a win for Obama, who regains his funny, common-guy attitude, and the third debate is an all-out tie.

3) Christie thanks Obama for what good he has done, but does not go as far as he did in RL. Many people like that Christie is able to put politics aside and point out that not everything the President does is absolutely horrible.

Governor Chris Christie/Senator Marco Rubio - 274 - 51.8%
President Barack Obama/Vice President Joe Biden - 264 - 48.2%

I think your map makes the most sense out of all the ones on here. I just have one question though. If Cristie did such a good job in NJ with regards to hurricane Sandy, why doesn't he carry his own state? And by what margin does he lose by?

Make that two questions.

Even if he did do a good job handling Sandy, NJ is Democratic territory, especially seeing as how the Republican nominee is their governor...who has been there for less than 3 years. Hell, I doubt he'd even carry NJ in 2016. Christie loses NJ 54%-45%.

[NHI]

Chris Christie/Marco Rubio: 324 (51.2%)

Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 214 (47.3%)

[dudehere92]

How would the 2012 election have ended had the following timeline of events occurred?

1) Chris Christie, not Rick Perry, enters the GOP race as the new frontrunner in late 2011
2) The anti-Romney vote unites behind Christie. The GOP primary becomes a 3-way race between Christie, Romney, and Paul
3) Christie beats Romney in New Hampshire, Florida, and the midwestern states - Romney exits the race in April (when Santorum did). Christie becomes the presumptive nominee
4) Christie selects Marco Rubio as his running mate

Stipulations:

1) Benghazi occurs - you choose Christie's response.
2) Christie decimates Obama in the first debate - you decide 2nd and 3rd debates
3) Hurricane Sandy occurs as in real life.

What would the electoral/popular vote totals be? 

Chris Christie / Marco Rubio (R) 51% 276 EV
Barack Obama / Joe Biden (D) 48% 262 EV