What will be next US Constitutional Amendment?
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  What will be next US Constitutional Amendment?
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Author Topic: What will be next US Constitutional Amendment?  (Read 7279 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« on: November 16, 2013, 08:49:18 PM »

The 20th century saw 12 amendments to the US Constitution. The last (27th - on Congressional raises not applying until the next Congress) was in 1992.

So does anyone expect to see the USC amended in the 21st century? And if so what do you think is the next amendment?

Or in our more polarized electorate, is it now impossible to imagine something passing supermajorities in both houses and in 38 state legislatures?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2013, 09:43:20 PM »

Of the amendments currently before the states, I could possibly see the Child Labor Amendment being adopted in 2024 if Democrats make an issue of it on the centenary of it being sent to the states.  The 28 states in green have already approved it, and if a push to adopt it were made by labor as a symbolic gesture, I think the 8 states in red would likely approve it now, making for 36 sure states and I think that if it were done as part of an anniverary blitz, they'd have a chance of getting two more to reach the needed 38.



Other amendments that could conceivably pass this century, but not this decade, would be ones banning the death penalty, allowing flag desecration laws, requiring a balanced budget, and/or returning abortion law to the purview of State legislatures.

(On the abortion issue, I can see those who support a narrower time frame for legal abortion than the current "until viability" regime but not a complete abolition of abortion possibly joing forces with those who seek to ban all abortions in passing such an amendment.  It's probably the least likely of the possible new amendments, but not an impossible one.)

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Blue3
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« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2013, 01:13:27 PM »

I can only see ERA, maybe the death penalty, and maybe some political process reforms (campaign financing, electoral college, etc.).
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2013, 02:23:30 PM »

The electoral college is one of those things that would likely get reformed if we have a convention, but otherwise will not.
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Blue3
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« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2013, 06:03:53 PM »

I never quite understood that process to amend the constitution. What would that take, again?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2013, 07:13:09 PM »

Two thirds of the States (currently 34) would have to issue an application for a Convention, which then Congress would be obligated to call.  The exact details of what such applications and such a call would entail was never specified.  The closest we came to ever having a convention was 1913 when we were two states short of calling a convention so that an amendment mandating direct election of Senators could be proposed.  The Senate caved and finally agreed to send such an amendment to the States doing that to forestall the possibility of a convention that might do more than just the one amendment.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2013, 07:35:07 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2013, 07:36:48 PM by Likely Voter »

There are two steps for any potential amendment. 1. proposal 2. ratification
And there are two ways for each. An amendment can be proposed by a constitutional convention (which can be called for by 2/3s of the state legislatures) or if it passes 2/3s of both houses of Congress. The amendment would then need to be ratified by 3/4s of the states (either through their own legislatures or state constitutional conventions).  To date all amendments have been proposed by congress and ratified by state legislatures.

The high hurdle is why it doesn't happen so often. And in the modern eras highly polarized politics it is very unlikely that anything that is seen as partisan could get through the process.

The thing I think that has the greatest chance is electoral reform but only after the GOP loses a presidential election while winning the PV (ala Bush in 2000). A ban on the death penalty in a generation or two is possible if trends continue and it gains conservative support, but it may be more likely that such a ban would be enacted via legislation and/or the supreme court. In fact both the child labor and ERA are now seen as superfluous to current legislation and court rulings.

And if we are looking at the 21st century as a whole, one cannot ignore the possibility that technology may play a part, notably regarding the potential citizenship (or denial of citizenship) for human clones and/or artificial intelligences.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2013, 09:10:29 PM »

Does anyone see some form of "personhood" (for lack of a better word) amendment being passed that overturns Citizens United?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2013, 09:25:45 PM »



After Citizens United Bernie Sanders proposed the Saving American Democracy Amendment
http://www.change.org/petitions/the-saving-american-democracy-amendment
It is a liberal wet dream but I can't see that ever passing unless there were some kind of massive event of corporate corruption ala Teapot Dome level or bigger

BTW 'Personhood' amendment usually applies to banning abortion by redefining personhood to fetuses. That has been proposed at the state level in a few states and always failed. There has also been failed attempts at the federal level, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Life_Amendment
I can't imagine that ever passing
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2013, 09:34:02 PM »

For the record the 2012 GOP platform supported a number of different amendments
Federal Marriage Amendment
Victims Rights Amendment
Balanced Budget Amendment
Human Life Amendment

The DNC 2012 platform supported...
Campaign Finance Reform Amendment (didn't specify but called for overturning Citizens United)
Equal Rights Amendment
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2013, 05:30:55 AM »

There are two steps for any potential amendment. 1. proposal 2. ratification
And there are two ways for each. An amendment can be proposed by a constitutional convention (which can be called for by 2/3s of the state legislatures) or if it passes 2/3s of both houses of Congress. The amendment would then need to be ratified by 3/4s of the states (either through their own legislatures or state constitutional conventions).  To date all amendments have been proposed by congress and ratified by state legislatures.

The high hurdle is why it doesn't happen so often. And in the modern eras highly polarized politics it is very unlikely that anything that is seen as partisan could get through the process.

The thing I think that has the greatest chance is electoral reform but only after the GOP loses a presidential election while winning the PV (ala Bush in 2000). A ban on the death penalty in a generation or two is possible if trends continue and it gains conservative support, but it may be more likely that such a ban would be enacted via legislation and/or the supreme court. In fact both the child labor and ERA are now seen as superfluous to current legislation and court rulings.

And if we are looking at the 21st century as a whole, one cannot ignore the possibility that technology may play a part, notably regarding the potential citizenship (or denial of citizenship) for human clones and/or artificial intelligences.

Actually the 21st amendment was ratified by state conventions rather than state legislatures. Congress thought that many state legislatures would be too conservative or too fearful of the temperance lobby to vote for a repeal of prohibition.

Anyway, most of the amendments that are currently talked about or supported by either party are long-shots to ever pass. The most likely thing I can think of might be DC statehood or just congressional representation. Maybe if we have a couple more 2000s in quick succession electoral college reform could be on the political radar. Talk of congressional term limits tends to sort of arise cyclically, so I imagine we'll hear serious debate about it again some day. Same with a balanced budget amendment. 
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Mordecai
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« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2013, 06:15:01 AM »
« Edited: November 18, 2013, 06:17:42 AM by Mordecai »

Does anyone see some form of "personhood" (for lack of a better word) amendment being passed that overturns Citizens United?
Wolf-PAC is working towards calling a constitutional convention on this issue, although they expect that once it picks up steam Congress will move into action to implement it to head off calling a convention.
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« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2013, 11:27:59 AM »

Other amendments that could conceivably pass this century, but not this decade, would be ones banning the death penalty, allowing flag desecration laws, requiring a balanced budget, and/or returning abortion law to the purview of State legislatures.

Uh, no.

After the last economic downturn it is painfully obvious that rushing to balance the budget would have sent us into a depression... which would further shrink tax receipts which would force even more cuts and so on.

And we have too many laws already.  Creating an entire new set of laws to arrest people for desecrating flags is the last thing we need.  After the disastrous war on drugs I think society is getting a little sick of all these pointless laws that clog up the legal system with innocuous petty criminals.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2013, 12:19:08 PM »

Other amendments that could conceivably pass this century, but not this decade, would be ones banning the death penalty, allowing flag desecration laws, requiring a balanced budget, and/or returning abortion law to the purview of State legislatures.

Uh, no.

After the last economic downturn it is painfully obvious that rushing to balance the budget would have sent us into a depression... which would further shrink tax receipts which would force even more cuts and so on.

And we have too many laws already.  Creating an entire new set of laws to arrest people for desecrating flags is the last thing we need.  After the disastrous war on drugs I think society is getting a little sick of all these pointless laws that clog up the legal system with innocuous petty criminals.

I never said anything about whether these amendments would be desirable or not, just whether they had any chance, however small, of being adopted this century. There aren't that many people itching to burn flags, so a flag desecration amendment would hardly clog up the courts.  As for the balanced budget amendment, not this decade, but later, if we get into a debt problem bad enough that we actually do default.  The reason most state constitutions have balanced budget clauses is as a reaction to previous defaults by state governments. While I don't see the Federal government having such a default any time soon, having one by the end of the century is quite conceivable, tho not inevitable, and if we do default, taking steps such as a balanced budget amendment to prevent it from ever happening again is quite possible.
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2013, 11:04:09 PM »

Could it be that since we amended the constitution around the debate of whether its possible for all people to have rights, all the debates now will be on what is a person? Though I guess the gay rights thing is continuation on the former and why it's becoming a slam dunk issue. People like to say that things like abortion, incorporation and even non-human rights are like what we talked about with slavery and votes for women but its definitely a different but equally important thing.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2013, 06:18:58 PM »

An amendment to overturn the far-right Citizens United ruling has to pass soon. Has to. Eighty percent of the public supports such an amendment, so what's the excuse not to pass it?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2013, 06:24:25 PM »

A smart amendment that I can actually see coming close to passage is one that prevents presidential elections from being thrown into the House, by declaring that if no candidate wins a majority of the Electoral College, then the popular vote winner wins.

But for this to pass, we need a reformist House that doesn't insist on monopolizing all the power.
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Frodo
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« Reply #17 on: December 17, 2013, 07:03:10 PM »

With the gutting of the Voting Rights Act making it necessary, perhaps the Right to Vote Amendment, along with the Equal Rights Amendment.    
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #18 on: December 17, 2013, 11:29:54 PM »

An amendment to overturn the far-right Citizens United ruling has to pass soon. Has to. Eighty percent of the public supports such an amendment, so what's the excuse not to pass it?

It won't.  Such an amendment has broad but extremely shallow support and there's no way it'll get the requisite two-thirds of either House or three-quarter of the States.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #19 on: December 17, 2013, 11:31:59 PM »

An amendment to overturn the far-right Citizens United ruling has to pass soon. Has to. Eighty percent of the public supports such an amendment, so what's the excuse not to pass it?

It won't.  Such an amendment has broad but extremely shallow support and there's no way it'll get the requisite two-thirds of either House or three-quarter of the States.

Numerous states have already endorsed it. I don't know if that really helps it in Congress though.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #20 on: December 17, 2013, 11:35:57 PM »

With the gutting of the Voting Rights Act making it necessary, perhaps the Right to Vote Amendment, along with the Equal Rights Amendment.    

While I doubt the Fair Vote Amendment has any chance of passage, I can see where one would argue for its passage as a way to respond to Shelby County v. Holder.  But why the Equal Right Amendment?  Not only am I not aware of any efforts to suppress the women's vote, the Voting Rights Act doesn't include any language about gender based voting discrimination.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #21 on: December 17, 2013, 11:37:47 PM »

An amendment to overturn the far-right Citizens United ruling has to pass soon. Has to. Eighty percent of the public supports such an amendment, so what's the excuse not to pass it?

It won't.  Such an amendment has broad but extremely shallow support and there's no way it'll get the requisite two-thirds of either House or three-quarter of the States.

Numerous states have already endorsed it. I don't know if that really helps it in Congress though.

Numerous is not three-quarters.  It's not even a majority.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #22 on: December 17, 2013, 11:40:18 PM »

Does any of this matter much, considering how much our government simply ignores what the Constitution says anyway? Section 2 of the Fifteenth Amendment specifically authorizes Congress to pass laws like the Voting Rights Act, yet the Supreme Court threw out the VRA anyway. And the amendment against congressional pay raises is regularly ignored.
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Frodo
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« Reply #23 on: December 18, 2013, 12:31:19 AM »

With the gutting of the Voting Rights Act making it necessary, perhaps the Right to Vote Amendment, along with the Equal Rights Amendment.    

While I doubt the Fair Vote Amendment has any chance of passage,

That remains to be seen.

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Before we can even consider getting rid of the Electoral College, and electing the President of the United States by popular vote alone, every state must adhere to a set of principles that prevents any attempt to disenfranchise certain segments of the population for political purposes.  And the best vehicle to do that is to pass a Right to Vote Amendment that constitutionally ensures their right to vote is protected.  

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The Voting Rights Act has absolutely no connection to the Equal Rights Amendment -I just mentioned it in conjunction with the Fair Vote Amendment.    
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #24 on: December 18, 2013, 07:44:55 AM »

The next Constitutional Amendment is not going to come until the 2040s or so, and issues at that time will be pretty different from today. So there's little way of knowing what it will be about.
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