What % of the vote would Sanders get in Vermont as a 3rd party candidate?

[Mr. Morden]

With Bernie Sanders now saying that he might run for president in 2016, and would "probably" do so as an independent, how do you think he'd do in his home state of Vermont, if he were to run?  Let's assume that he runs as the Green Party nominee, in order to get ballot access in much of the country, but runs his campaign nationwide, with no particular emphasis on Vermont.

[ElectionsGuy]

I would say around 15%, and that would definitely be his best state. He would probably get around 6-8% nationwide at best.

[progressive85]

I'm going to say he'd win a plurality.  Like 35% of the vote.  A lot of progressives in Vermont will feel safer voting for him because VT is a blue state and so they would feel like they could afford to vote for Sanders since the Democrat would win anyway.  I think he'd do very well in VT but outside of VT not sure

[GAworth]

I think he would get in the 30's high 20's. It also depends on how the Democratic candidate is received.

[Likely Voter]

John Anderson got around 6% in IL in 1980 and Gary Johnson got about 4% in NM in 2012. I find it hard to imagine Sanders breaking 10%. Even if you like him, you will still see voting for him as a protest vote against the Democratic nominee.

[NewYorkExpress]

50%+ if Hillary is the nominee
30-32% with any other Democrat

26-32% With Cristie as GOP nominee

29-34% with any other GOP nominee

Nationally, he'll do well elsewhere in New England, but Vermont will be the only state he wins.

[Flake]

He could make some New England states go into the Republican because of a united Republican base and a fractured liberal base.

[SteveRogers]

I don't see any reason to think Sanders would crack 5% nationally. Most of the factors typically conducive to a strong third party showing aren't likely to be present in 2016. That probably puts him at 10-15% in Vermont. 

[Indy Texas]

I would say around 15%, and that would definitely be his best state. He would probably get around 6-8% nationwide at best.

I think that's optimistic. Gary Johnson got just shy of 1% and was about as well-known by most Americans outside his state as Bernie Sanders is.

[morgieb]

He would have Vermont in the vag so as long as the Democrat was guaranteed 270 EV's.

[Indy Texas]

He would have Vermont in the vag so as long as the Democrat was guaranteed 270 EV's.

Let's hope Vermont doesn't wind up there. Might need to visit the clinic afterward.

[Flake]

He would have Vermont in the vag so as long as the Democrat was guaranteed 270 EV's.

Let's hope Vermont doesn't wind up there. Might need to visit the clinic afterward.

[Sopranos Republican]

He would have Vermont in the vag so as long as the Democrat was guaranteed 270 EV's.

Let's hope Vermont doesn't wind up there. Might need to visit the clinic afterward.

I believe these people are banned from entering our lovely state. We don't want it contaminated with whatever unknown infectious disease they are carrying.

[PJ]

I'M SO EXCITED

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

22%.

[Mister Mets]

John Anderson got around 6% in IL in 1980 and Gary Johnson got about 4% in NM in 2012. I find it hard to imagine Sanders breaking 10%. Even if you like him, you will still see voting for him as a protest vote against the Democratic nominee.

Sanders is a bit different.

Unlike Anderson, he's been elected to statewide office.

Unlike Johnson, he's been reelected recently. Since 1990, he's won ten statewide elections in Vermont (eight as a member of the House of Representatives, two as Senator.)

He could break ten percent.

But even he gets twenty percent, it's unlikely to make the state competitive for Republicans.

[Consciously Unconscious]

If he united the socialist parties (which is improbable if not impossible), he could gain traction in the northeast, particularly Vermont.  There's a slight chance he could win it, but the vote would have to be so split that's practically impossible.  He would have to win a plurality of the vote; I doubt he could win a majority. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

Remember that 3rd parties almost always overpoll. I think he'd get around 10% in Vermont, 5% in the rest of New England, and 1% nationwide.

[Hnv1]

Depends on who he's running against. if it's a nut-job republican vs Clinton that could give many Liberal voters the chance to go out and vote for him and then I could see him marginally winning Vermont (with Clinton coming close second) and doing very well in western Mass.\NY\RI\West coast liberal bastions. In a competitive 2 party race I can't see him doing more than 20% in Vermont.

[Cryptic]

I'll say he gets around 10%.  He's clearly liked in the state, but unless he gets serious traction nationally (which is next to impossible), I don't see him doing any better then this.

[Citizen Hats]

If he united the socialist parties (which is improbable if not impossible), he could gain traction in the northeast, particularly Vermont.  There's a slight chance he could win it, but the vote would have to be so split that's practically impossible.  He would have to win a plurality of the vote; I doubt he could win a majority. 

The only reason those parties exist is to be a recepticle for cranks who aren't nice enough to play well with outhers

[NerdyBohemian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

RI is faithful to the Democratic party, not to progressives.

Sanders might win a plurality in a perfect storm, but I honestly don't see him getting more than 10%.

[enrico maxwell]

Win the state, easily.