Uruguay General Election, October 26, 2014

[Colbert]

Frente Amplio
822.246

Partido Nacional
573.114

Partido Colorado
242.013

Partido Independiente
51.589

Partido Asamblea Popular
17.844

Partido de los Trabajadores
2.281

Partido Ecologista Radical Intransigente
11.436



http://eleccionesnacionales2014.corteelectoral.gub.uy/

[politicus]

FA is ahead of the centre-right with 99,3% of polling stations counted:


Frente Amplio
1.105.171

Partido Nacional
714.576

Partido Colorado
298.368

Partido Independiente
70.888

Partido Asamblea Popular
24.621

Partido de los Trabajadores
3.063

Partido Ecologista Radical Intransigente
17.341

[Famous Mortimer]

Yeah but what about seats?

[Velasco]

Yeah but what about seats?

We'll have to wait for the official count. Anyway, Frente Amplio is getting more votes than the combined opposition parties, so I think they are going to win a majority.

At this moment FA is getting 49.48%, Partido Nacional 31.98%, Partido Colorado 13.35% and Partido Independiente 3.18%.

[Famous Mortimer]

What is the Independent Party like ideologically? Is it filling the same niche New Space used to occupy?

[Velasco]

What is the Independent Party like ideologically? Is it filling the same niche New Space used to occupy?

It's a centre-left "social-christian" party. PI was founded in 2002 and is a split of Nuevo Espacio, which is still in Frente Amplio. As Nuevo Espacio was intended to be a "third way" between the left and the two centre-right traditional parties, PI claims to be a "fourth space" combining socialdemocracy and christian democracy-. Pablo Mieres, the PI's chairman and presidential candidate, was member of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC). The PDC joined Nuevo Espacio in 1996.

[Velasco]

Anyway, public opinion in Uruguay places PI on the centre-right and the Nacional and Colorado parties on the right.

According to a survey by Instituto Factum, on a left-right scale of 1 to 10, Frente Amplio scores 2.5, PI 6, Partido Nacional 7.9 and Partido Colorado 8.1.

As for how the voters of each party perceive themselves on the same scale: FA scores 3.2, PI 5.4, Partido Nacional 7.5 and Partido Colorado 7.6.

As for ideological self identification: 38.7% is on the left and centre-left (1-4), 21.7% on the centre (5-6) and 24.1% on the right (7-10).

http://www2.factum.edu.uy/estpol/anaobs/2009/ano09003.html

[Velasco]

Broad Front (Frente Amplio) retains majority in the Legislative Assembly:

Chamber of Deputies (99 seats):

Broad Front 50 (nc), National Party 32 (+2), Colorado Party 13 (-4), Independent Party 3 (+1), Popular Assembly* 1 (+1)

Senate (30 seats): 

Broad Front 15 (-1), National Party 10 (+1), Colorado Party 4 (-1), Independent Party 1 (+1)

*Alliance of communists, socialists and other elements of the "revolutionary left". It's getting 1.1% of the vote.

Source: http://www.elpais.com.uy/tag/elecciones-2014

[Antonio the Sixth]

YES!

[Velasco]

The last seat in the Chamber of Deputies is actually in dispute between the Broad Front and the National Party. However and according to some informers from the Electoral Court quoted by El País (Uruguay), it should occur a "cataclysm" to reverse the result.

In the Senate, the left-wing faction of the Broad Front -among others, includes the Movement of Popular Participation, the VP candidate Raúl Sendic and the Communist Party- will get 9 out of 15 seats. If the Broad Front wins the second round and Raúl Sendic becomes in VP, he would preside the Senate and be replaced by other member of his subfaction. The centre-left Liber Seregni Front gets 3 senators, the Socialist Party 2 and the Casa Grande faction 1 (Constanza Moreira).

The strongest faction in the National Party is the one led by Luis Lacalle Pou (Todos Hacia Adelante) with 6 seats; the remaining 4 will be for the National Alliance faction led by Jorge Larrañaga.

In the Colorado Party, the Pedro Bordaberry faction gets 3 out of 4 seats.

The Independent Party chairman Pablo Mieres is elected senator.

[Zanas]

What kind of sorcery is this ? An election whose outcome is not extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire ? What kind of world are we living in ?

[Velasco]

What kind of sorcery is this ? An election whose outcome is not extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire ? What kind of world are we living in ?

What do you mean with that?

Thank You a lot, as it is difficult to find anything about inner-party-factions!

It's unforgivible that I didn't mention the top two senators of the Movement of Popular Participation: José Mújica and his wife Lucía Topolanski. The MPP will get 6 senators, The Raúl Sendic subfaction 2 (or 3 if Sendic becomes in VP) and the Communist Party 1.

The electoral system in Uruguay allows to vote for different factional tickets called sublemas, several lists may run inside every one of said sublemas.

I'll try to make a summary (figures at 99.6%, vote percentage excluding invalid and blank ballots).

Broad Front: 1108839 votes (49.48%) 15 senators.

1) MAS Frente Amplio para Desarrollo con Igualdad: 619731 (9 senators)

- Movement of Popular Participation (José Mújica and Lucía Topolanski): 348757 (6 senators)

- Raúl Sendic List:  154097 (2 senators)

- Communists (Marcos Carambula): 69857 (1 senator)

- Other lists: 47020

2) Líber Seregni Front (Danilo Astori): 220775 (3 senators)

3) Unidad y Pluralismo Frenteamplista (Socialists and others): 193,302 (2 senators)

4) Casa Grande (Constanza Moreira): 77635 (1 senator)

National Party: 716737 (31.98%) 10 senators

1) Todos Hacia Delante (Luis Lacalle): 411742 (6 senators)

2) National Alliance (Jorge Larrañaga): 291588 (4 senators)

Colorado Party: 299145 (13.35%) 4 senators

1) Vamos Uruguay (Juan Pedro Bordaberry): 187193 (3 senators)

2) Batllistas de Ley (José Amorín): 108322 (1 senator)

Independent Party: 71169 (3.18%) 1 senator

1) Cambiar sin Volver Atrás (Pablo Mieres) 67525 (1 senator)

Popular Assembly: 24770 (1.11%)

[Velasco]

Interactive maps and graphs with the results here:

http://elecciones2014.elpais.com.uy/landing/elecciones2014.asp

[Zanas]

What kind of sorcery is this ? An election whose outcome is not extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire ? What kind of world are we living in ?

What do you mean with that?

I'm getting way too used to see absolutely horrendous election outcomes for my political family and values these days. Frente Amplio squeezing out a win isn't one of them, thus the sarcasm. See Antonio's signature for the particular wording.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this last round of election has been fairly OK, with FA doing well in Uruguay, pro-Western parties dominating in Ukraine, Dilma being reelected, and islamists losing power in Tunisia. Oh, and Ford getting ousted in Toronto. Still doesn't make up for the utter disaster that was Sweden/Scotland, though.

[Velasco]

There is still the runoff. Tabaré Vázquez is the favourite, but Luis Lacalle has still some little chances of winning. By the moment we have an almost secure FA majority in the Chamber of Deputies and a tie with the opposition in the Senate, which will be eventually broken depending on the runoff. I mean, it's better not count the chickens before they are hatched. Just in case

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is still the runoff. Tabaré Vázquez is the favourite, but Luis Lacalle has still some little chances of winning. By the moment we have an almost secure FA majority in the Chamber of Deputies and a tie with the opposition in the Senate, which will be eventually broken depending on the runoff. I mean, it's better not count the chickens before they are hatched. Just in case

Didn't Vazquez get about 47%? It would take a pretty huge swing for him to lose the runoff.

[Velasco]

Perhaps I'm being extremely cautious, because Vázquez is the clear favourite unless a catastrophe happens. According to some pollster director, the FA has a "genuine advantage" but runoffs are never wholly defined, because there exists the possibility of a gaffe. In this round, certain statements made by Pedro Bordaberry damaged the Colorado Party. Bordaberry told to some National Party member something like "I came here to make s***t of Vázquez" and that was recorded by a radio. Lacalle needs some FA voters in this round to perform the miracle.

[Velasco]

Here, an interesting graph on party swings by department:

http://www.elpais.com.uy/informacion/ganaron-perdieron-votos-partidos-politicos.html

FA lost 7.1% in Montevideo (around 37k), which is the natural stronghold of the ruling coalition. That was compensated by an increase in the rest of the country, especially in right-leaning rural departments. FA won in Montevideo getting 55.2% of the vote, but losing support among the middle class in the capital.

The National Party had a remarkable 15.7% increase in Montevideo, as well as a 20.8% swing in Maldonado and >10% swings in the Río Negro and Soriano departments. PN lost votes in 6 out of 19 departments, especially in Salto (-17.7%), where FA had a 9.8% swing and the Colorado Party improved a tiny 3.4% (191 votes) and came second.

The Colorado Party lost voters in all departments except Salto and Rivera. Especially remarkable was the negative swing in Montevideo (-30.2%, nearly 42k). In Durazno, Soriano, Colonia and Treinta y Tres the PC lost 1/3 or more of its voters with regards to the 2009 elections.

[Tender Branson]

Vázquez wins the runoff with 56.6% of the vote.

[Velasco]

"Uruguay’s elections: a lesson in fair play for a region in upheaval":

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http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/12/01/inenglish/1417446049_119342.html

Official results:

Tabaré Vázquez / Raúl Sendic (Broad Front) 1226105 (56.63%)

Luis Lacalle / Jorge Larrañaga (National Party) 939074 (43.37%)

http://segundaeleccion2014.corteelectoral.gub.uy/#