Hillary's Weakness in the West

[Mr. Morden]

why are we presuming a Hillary weakness in the West?  2008 primary results?

A lot of polling has her doing better in the South and North than out West.

We haven't actually seen much polling of the West.  Among Western states, it's really just Colorado where we've seen a significant Republican swing show up in the polling.  In the Christie vs. Clinton polls, we also see a swing against Clinton in the North.  In fact, in general, we see the Democratic states swinging Republican, and vice versa.  Here's the Christie vs. Clinton swing map I put together, using the most recent polls for each state, and comparing against the 2012 results:

[Mr. Morden]

PPP had the most accurate polls in the 2012 election, so I wouldn't really call it a bias as much as they are right on the money.

I don't think so:

[Mr. Morden]

Nate Silver has an irrational hatred of PPP for some reason.

Ummm....explain how PPP was the "most accurate" in 2012.  That's what I was disputing.

That's even leaving aside the methodological issues that were discussed earlier this year by Silver, Nate Cohn, etc.